看電影學(xué)英語(yǔ):點(diǎn)球成金 Moneyball 精講之三

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Peter: Using this equation in the upper left, I'm projecting that we need to win at least 99 games in order to make it to the postseason. We need to score at least 814 runs in order to win those games and allow no more than 645 runs.

Billy: What's this?

Peter: This is a code that I've written for our year-to-year projections. This is building in all the intelligence that we have to project players.

Billy: Okay.

Peter: It's about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them, we'll find value in players that nobody else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that. Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team of 25 people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them. Like an island of misfit toys. Billy, this is Chad Bradford. He's a relief pitcher. He is one of the most undervalued players in baseball. His defect is that he throws funny. Nobody in the big leagues cares about him because he looks funny. This guy could be not just the best pitcher in our pen, but one of the most effective relief pitchers in all baseball. This guy should cost $3 million a year. We can get him for 237,000. Billy.

Billy: That it?

Peter: Yeah.

Billy: Hey, Art.

Art: Can I talk to you for a second before you get started?

Billy: I'm a bit busy right now.

Art: I know. I know.

Billy: Okay. Morning, everyone.

Art: Art.

Peter: Peter Brand.

Art: Nice to meet you.

Billy: Where the hell's Pete? That's Pete. Grab a seat. I'll be right back.

Art: Who's the kid?

Billy: A friend of mine.

Art: I can't manage this team under a one-year contract.

Billy: Well, sure you can.

Art: No, I can't.

Billy: Okay. I gotta put a team on the field. After that, I'll take a good long look at your contract.

Art: How about you deal with the manager's contract, then put a team on the field?

Billy: All right. At this moment, if a grounder's hit to first, nobody's gonna be there to stop it from ruining.

Art: It's not easy doing what I do under the cloud of a one-year contract.

Billy: Okay, I understand that. I've been there.

Art: I know. I know you have. A one-year contract means the same thing to a manager as to a player. There's not a lot of faith there. Which is strange after a 102-win season.

Billy: I see. If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a shit.

Art: So it's on me now?

Billy: No, Art, it's on me. And the kid is the new assistant GM.

Art: Okay.

Billy: Okay, fellas.

Grady: Hey, Billy. You can't deny his offensive output. He can play. And we need people that can play. Who do you wanna talk about first?

Billy: None of them.

Man: Billy, we got 38 home runs, 120 RBIs to make up for.

Billy: Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.

Grady: The what?

Billy: Giambi's on-base percentage was .477. Damon's on-base, .324. And Olmedo's was .291. Add that up and you get...

Peter: Do you want me to speak?

Billy: When I point at you, yeah.

Peter: 1.092.

Billy: Divided by three.

Peter: .364.

Billy: That's what we're looking for. Three ballplayers-- Three ballplayers whose average OBP is...

Peter: .364.

Artie: Wait, that doesn't come out right.

Billy: It's right, Artie.

Grady: Billy.

Billy: You gotta carry the one.

Grady: Billy.

Billy: Scratch this out. Yeah?

Grady: Who's that?

Billy: That's Pete.

Grady: Does Pete really need to be here?

Billy: Yes, he does. Okay, here's who we want. Number one: Jason's little brother, Jeremy.

Barry: Oh, God.

Grady: Billy, that's trouble.

Rocco: Billy, look, if I-- Yeah. Billy, if I may, he's had his problems off the field, and we know what he can't do on the field.

Man A: He's getting thick around the waist.

Rocco: There are reports about him on weed, in strip clubs.

Billy: His on-base percentage is all we're looking at now. And Jeremy gets on base an awful lot for a guy who only costs 285,000.

Man: Jeez, Billy--

Billy: Number two: David Justice.

Man: Oh, no. His legs are gone.

Grady: Not a good idea.

Billy: Old Man Justice? Why is that?

Man B: Steinbrenner's so pissed at his decline, he's willing to eat his contract just to get rid of him.

Billy: Exactly.

Grady: Ten years ago, David Justice, big name. Been in big games. He's gonna really help our season tickets early in the year, but we get in the dog days in July, August, we're lucky if he's gonna hit his weight.

Artie: Billy, his legs are gone, and he's a defensive liability. I question whether the bat speed's there.

Grady: His legs are gone.

Billy: Grady.

Grady: We'll be lucky to get 60 games out of him. Why do you like him?

Peter: Because he gets on base.

Man: What is this? What are we doing?

Billy: Okay, number three: Scott Hatteberg.

Man: Who? Hatteberg?

Billy: Exactly.

Man: He sounds like an Oakland A already.

Billy: Yes, he's had a little problem with--

Man: Little problem? He can't throw.

Man C: He's a career .260 hitter. The best part of his career is over.

Billy: I say it's just getting started.

Man D: Boston wants to cut him. No one wants to pick him up.

Billy: That’s good for us. He's cheap.

Grady: Let me get this straight. You're gonna get a guy that's been released by half the organizations in baseball because he's got nonrepairable nerve damage in his elbow and can't throw.

Billy: He can't throw and he can't field. But what can he do?

Man: Oh, boy.

Billy: Check your reports or I'm gonna point at Pete.

Men: He gets on base.

Billy: He can get on base.

Rocco: So he walks a lot.

Billy: He gets on base a lot, Rocco. Do I care if it's a walk or a hit? Pete?

Peter: You do not.

Billy: I do not.

Man: Billy, I got 37 free agents that are better than those three guys.

Grady: Wait a minute, let me get this straight. So you're not gonna bring in one but three defective players to replace Giambi?

Rocco: You're not buying into this Bill James bullshit?

Billy: This is the new direction of the A's. We are card counters at the blackjack table and we're gonna turn the odds on the casino.

Grady: I don't see it.

Man E: Seriously, guys. I think we have to remember this is the man. He answers to no one except ownership and God. And he doesn't have to answer to us. We make suggestions, he makes decisions.

Grady: Look, that's all fine and well, but we've been working our asses off for the last six and a half weeks to make this club better, and you're shitting all over it.

Billy: Grady, Grady. This is not a discussion.

Barry: What are we discussing?

Billy: Barry, not a discussion.

Man F: Billy, man, um, I think there's one thing you're forgetting. None of those three guys knows how to play first base.

Billy: Well, you're gonna have to teach one of them.

Man F: Teach? Which one?