“你被炒魷魚了”

It took Richard Nixon five months to fire the man investigating him. It took Donald Trump less than four. The difference is that Nixon did little to conceal his motive — to save his presidency. Mr Trump, on the other hand, says he fired James Comey for having mishandled last year’s email investigation into Hillary Clinton. Even by Mr Trump’s standards, this stretches credulity. Mr Trump is asking the US public to believe he “terminated and removed” the FBI director for having treated Mrs Clinton unfairly. This was the same opponent whom Mr Trump said should be locked up for mishandling her emails. Now, apparently, Mrs Clinton was the victim of an unprofessional probe and Mr Trump is setting things straight.

理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)花了5個(gè)月的時(shí)間炒掉了調(diào)查他的人。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)花了不到4個(gè)月。兩者之間的區(qū)別是，尼克松沒怎么隱瞞自己的動(dòng)機(jī)：保住他的總統(tǒng)寶座，而特朗普則稱，他炒掉詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)是因?yàn)楹笳邔θツ晗＠?bull;克林頓(Hillary Clinton)“郵件門”的調(diào)查處理不當(dāng)。即使以特朗普的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這也太把別人當(dāng)傻子了。特朗普讓美國公眾相信，他“終止和免去(這位聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)局長)的職務(wù)”是因?yàn)楹笳咴还降貙Υ讼＠铩Ｏ＠镎翘乩势湛谥心莻€(gè)應(yīng)為不當(dāng)處置自己郵件被關(guān)進(jìn)監(jiān)獄的對手。如今看起來，希拉里曾是一項(xiàng)不專業(yè)調(diào)查的受害者，而特朗普正在伸張正義。

Mr Comey’s firing was ostensibly prompted by the revelation that he had misdescribed his decision last October to reopen the Clinton email investigation — a move that many believe tipped the election in Mr Trump’s favour. Yet Mr Comey, who until Tuesday night was overseeing the investigation into the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia to influence last year’s election, only disclosed his misstatement this week. Mr Trump, on the other hand, was cavilling at the FBI director long before Mr Comey’s disclosure. Last week Mr Trump tweeted: “FBI Director Comey was the best thing that ever happened to Hillary Clinton in that he gave her a free pass for many bad deeds!” Mr Comey, in other words, was already in Mr Trump’s sights.

表面上，科米被開除的導(dǎo)火索，是他對去年10月重啟希拉里“郵件門”調(diào)查的決定存在錯(cuò)誤表述——很多人認(rèn)為該決定使得選情偏向有利于特朗普的方向。不過直到周二晚上還在主持特朗普競選團(tuán)隊(duì)“通俄門”(涉嫌勾結(jié)俄羅斯以影響去年大選)調(diào)查的科米，本周才剛剛披露了他的錯(cuò)誤表述。而另一方面，特朗普在科米披露此事前很久就開始對這位FBI局長挑刺。上周特朗普在Twitter上發(fā)文稱：“遇上FBI局長科米是希拉里•克林頓最大的幸運(yùn)，因?yàn)樗o了她一張免罪狀，勾銷了她做的很多壞事!”換句話說，科米早就被特朗普盯上了。

The implications are dramatic. Like any US federal scandal, the details mount but the basics remain simple. Having fired the head of the only Russia investigation taking place within the executive branch, Mr Trump will now conduct a search for Mr Comey’s replacement. What are the chances he selects an independent figure who will pick up the Russia investigation where Mr Comey left off? What are the odds Mr Trump’s FBI nominee gets the necessary 50 votes for Senate confirmation?

這將引發(fā)戲劇性的影響。正如任何一件美國政府丑聞一樣，細(xì)節(jié)很多，但基本事實(shí)很簡單。既然炒掉了行政分支內(nèi)唯一正在進(jìn)行的“通俄門”調(diào)查的負(fù)責(zé)人，那么特朗普現(xiàn)在將開始尋找科米的接替者。他有多大可能性選出一個(gè)繼續(xù)完成科米未競的“通俄門”調(diào)查的獨(dú)立人物?特朗普提名的FBI局長人選在參議院得到必須的50票贊成的可能性有多大?

Mr Trump will be aided in his search by Jeff Sessions, the attorney-general, who was forced to recuse himself from overseeing Mr Comey’s investigation because of his undisclosed contacts with the Russian ambassador. This was the same ambassador with whom Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s first national security adviser, held conversations secretly recorded by the FBI. The leaked contents of those, in turn, led to Mr Flynn’s firing.

特朗普在搜尋人選時(shí)會(huì)得到司法部長杰夫•塞申斯(Jeff Sessions)的幫助。塞申斯曾被迫回避監(jiān)督科米的調(diào)查，因?yàn)樗c俄羅斯大使秘密接觸。特朗普的第一任國家安全顧問邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)正是與這位大使舉行會(huì)談，被FBI秘密錄了下來。泄露出來的FBI錄音內(nèi)容后來導(dǎo)致弗林被解職。

These are just the outlines. The key point is that Mr Trump has fired the man investigating him. Nixon’s “Saturday night massacre” in which he fired Archibald Cox, the special prosecutor, is the only precedent.

以上這些只是事件的大概情況。關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)是特朗普炒掉了調(diào)查他的人。尼克松的“周六夜大屠殺”(Saturday night massacre)——炒掉了特別檢察官阿奇博爾德•考克斯(Archibald Cox)——是唯一的先例。

There are three consequences. The first is that calls will mount to appoint a special prosecutor to take over the Russia investigation. Nixon was compelled to do so — as was Bill Clinton. Mr Trump will resist any such move. Only his fellow Republicans can force him to take that step. The pressure on Republicans to uphold the integrity of the US judicial system will sharply intensify. If one Republican senator, such as John McCain, breaks ranks, others would follow. So far the partisan line is just about holding. But cracks are starting to show.

此舉將帶來三大后果。首先，要求任命一名特別檢察官接管“通俄門”調(diào)查的呼聲將越來越高。尼克松當(dāng)年就被迫這樣做——比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)也是如此。特朗普將抵制任何此類舉動(dòng)。只有他的共和黨同僚能迫使他邁出這一步。共和黨人將承受急劇加大的壓力，要求他們維護(hù)美國司法制度的健全。如果有一名共和黨參議員——如約翰•麥凱恩(John McCain)——帶頭破壞隊(duì)形的話，其他人就會(huì)效仿。到目前為止，黨內(nèi)還保持著統(tǒng)一的隊(duì)形。但裂隙已開始顯現(xiàn)。

The second consequence is that Mr Trump will now find it impossible to banish the Russia narrative. In politics, bandwidth is power. It will be hard for Mr Trump to achieve much else while the Russia shadow hangs over him. It is difficult to believe he would have taken such a step had he believed leaving Mr Comey in place would pose a lesser risk. Having been blamed widely for tipping the election to Mr Trump, Mr Comey was on a quest to salvage his reputation. Now that he is gone, others in the FBI may take the initiative. It is worth remembering that Nixon was undone by a disgruntled FBI official, Mark Felt, who leaked details about his Watergate cover-up to the Washington Post. Either way, talk of the Trump administration’s “normalisation” looks premature. We are entering Nixonian territory.

第二個(gè)后果是，特朗普將發(fā)現(xiàn)，完全消除“通俄”說的影響是不可能的。在政治領(lǐng)域，“帶寬”就是力量?；\罩在俄羅斯陰影下無暇分身的特朗普，將很難在其他領(lǐng)域取得多少成就。要是特朗普相信留下科米風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更小的話，相信他也就不會(huì)炒掉科米了。由于被廣泛指責(zé)幫助讓選情偏向有利于特朗普的方向，科米一直在尋求挽回自己的聲譽(yù)。如今，科米被解職了，F(xiàn)BI的其他同僚可能會(huì)自發(fā)地挺身而出。值得記住的是，尼克松就是被憤憤不平的FBI官員馬克•費(fèi)爾特(Mark Felt)搞下臺的，后者向華盛頓郵報(bào)(Washington Post)爆料了尼克松掩蓋“水門事件”(Watergate)的細(xì)節(jié)?？傊F(xiàn)在談?wù)撎乩势照?ldquo;正?；?rdquo;看起來為時(shí)過早。我們正在進(jìn)入“尼克松場景”。

The third consequence is how this will go down in Moscow. The Russian government has made little secret of its desire to contaminate US democracy. On Tuesday Vladimir Putin chalked up another victory. The US president did something typically associated with a non-democracy. He interfered with the course of justice. Not even Nixon fired the head of the FBI.

第三個(gè)后果是，莫斯科方面將如何看待此事。俄羅斯政府幾乎毫不掩飾對于污染美國民主的渴望。周二，弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)又取得了一場勝利。美國總統(tǒng)做了一件通常只在非民主國家出現(xiàn)的事。他干擾了司法公正。連尼克松也沒有解除FBI局長的職務(wù)。

Russia may not achieve a grand bargain with the US to create its own sphere of influence. Mr Trump would find it hard to make any kind of geopolitical concession without provoking Republican hawks, such as Mr McCain. But Russia has already won the prize it sought. American democracy is in a deepening crisis. When and where it will end is anybody’s guess.

俄羅斯未必能與美國達(dá)成大妥協(xié)，以建立自己的勢力范圍。特朗普會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在不激怒共和黨鷹派人士(比如麥凱恩)的情況下，很難做出任何地緣政治讓步。但俄羅斯已獲得了自己想要的獎(jiǎng)賞。美國的民主正處于一場不斷深化的危機(jī)之中。這場危機(jī)何時(shí)結(jié)束、將發(fā)展到何種地步，所有人都不得而知。