中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口下降4.7%

China’s exports to the US are set to fall this year for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis.

中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口在今年將下降，這將是自全球金融危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期以來的第一次。

The value of merchandise imports from China has fallen 4.7 per cent, based on annualised data for the first 10 months of 2016, according to Standard Chartered.

據(jù)渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)基于2016年前10個(gè)月的年化數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)出口美國(guó)商品價(jià)值下降了4.7%。

US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 45 per cent on goods from China, suggesting that exports to the US could decline still further in coming years.

美國(guó)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)威脅要對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收高達(dá)45%的關(guān)稅，表明未來幾年中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口可能進(jìn)一步下降。

Between 2010 and 2015, the country’s exports to the US rose at a compound annualised growth rate of 5.6 per cent.

2010年至2015年，中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口以5.6%的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率攀升。

Although the renminbi has fallen 5.9 per cent against the dollar so far this year, Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at StanChart, said the “main culprit” for the export slide was a decline in shipments of electronic goods.

盡管今年到目前為止人民幣兌美元匯率已下跌了5.9%，但渣打高級(jí)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托馬斯•凱斯特(Thomas Costerg)表示，中國(guó)出口滑坡的“罪魁禍?zhǔn)?rdquo;是電子商品發(fā)貨量下降。

Sales of mobile phones, tablets, laptops and related accessories to the US — which in 2015 were worth $130bn and represented almost a third of all merchandise exports to the US — have sunk in value by 4.8 per cent this year.

銷售至美國(guó)的手機(jī)、平板電腦、筆記本電腦及相關(guān)配件——2015年價(jià)值1300億美元，且占到所有對(duì)美商品出口的幾乎三分之一——今年價(jià)值縮水了4.8%。

Clothing and footwear exports have fallen at far greater rates. Footwear sales have slumped 14.4 per cent for the first 10 months of 2016 compared with the same period last year, and exports of apparel and clothing accessories are down 9 per cent to $27bn.

服裝及鞋類出口下滑更嚴(yán)重。與去年同期相比，2016年的前10個(gè)月，鞋類出口暴跌了14.4%，服裝和服裝配飾的出口下降了9%，至270億美元。

Mr Costerg argues there is a long-term structural shift, with heightened competition from Vietnam and other low-wage Asian economies increasingly meaning Chinese goods are “crowded out”. However, Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, believes China’s exports to the US will bounce back in dollar terms in the coming months.

凱斯特稱，出現(xiàn)了一種長(zhǎng)期的結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變，來自越南及其他低工資亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)意味著，中國(guó)商品正日益“被擠出去”。然而，凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級(jí)亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家加勒思•萊瑟(Gareth Leather)相信，未來幾個(gè)月，中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口(以美元計(jì)算)將出現(xiàn)反彈。