中國頂層戰(zhàn)略將做強(qiáng)中資制造商

South Korea, Germany and Japan are among the countries most at risk from an upsurge in Chinese manufacturing competitiveness that is likely to flow from Beijing’s top-level strategy to become a high-tech power by 2025, a German think-tank has found.

德國一家智庫發(fā)現(xiàn)，北京方面到2025年將中國打造成為高科技強(qiáng)國的頂層戰(zhàn)略可能大幅提升其國內(nèi)制造業(yè)的競爭力，在這個(gè)過程中，韓國、德國和日本等國家最可能遭受沖擊。

While inefficiencies in resource allocation and deficiencies in innovation are likely to hamper realisation of the “Made in China 2025” plan, a deep pool of available funding and powerful political backing are set to elevate a clutch of Chinese manufacturers to the world’s top echelon, according to a report by The Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), a Berlin-based think-tank.

盡管資源配置低效和創(chuàng)新匱乏可能阻礙“中國制造2025”計(jì)劃的實(shí)現(xiàn)，但柏林一家智庫墨卡托中國研究中心(Mercator Institute for China Studies)的報(bào)告顯示，大量資金來源和有力的政治支持將會(huì)把一批中國制造商推升至世界頂級(jí)水平。

“Even if Made in China 2025 will not fully accomplish its objective of achieving the widespread application of smart manufacturing in the next decade, the plan will develop an enormous impact that will be felt not only in China but throughout the global economy,” said the report, which is published on Wednesday.

這份發(fā)表于周三的報(bào)告稱：“即便中國制造2025計(jì)劃不會(huì)完全實(shí)現(xiàn)下個(gè)十年廣泛普及智能制造的目標(biāo)，它也會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響，不只是在中國，整個(gè)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都會(huì)感受到這種影響。”

“Industrial countries should have no illusions: Made in China 2025 will elevate a small but powerful group of Chinese manufacturers, dramatically increasing their competitiveness,” the report added.

報(bào)告補(bǔ)充稱：“工業(yè)國家不應(yīng)有任何幻想：中國制造2025計(jì)劃將提升一小批實(shí)力強(qiáng)大的中國制造商，極大地增強(qiáng)它們的競爭力。”

The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Japan and South Korea are most at risk from the strategy because each of them derives more than 40 per cent of the value of their industrial output from the high-tech and medium-tech industries that are targeted in China’s plan (see chart).

捷克共和國、德國、意大利、匈牙利、日本和韓國最容易受到中國這一戰(zhàn)略的影響，因?yàn)樗鼈兊墓I(yè)產(chǎn)值中都有超過40%的份額來自在該戰(zhàn)略中被當(dāng)作目標(biāo)的中高等科技行業(yè)。

The Merics report, which was based on an examination of policy documents, expert journals and newspaper articles, as well as more than 60 interviews with Chinese experts, finds that one clear aim of the industrial strategy is to cultivate domestic champions to replace the sales by foreign companies in China.

墨卡托報(bào)告是在對(duì)政策文件、專業(yè)期刊和媒體報(bào)道的研究以及對(duì)中國專家60多次采訪的基礎(chǔ)上寫成的。該報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國工業(yè)戰(zhàn)略的一個(gè)明確目標(biāo)是培育國內(nèi)冠軍企業(yè)，來取代在華外企的銷售。

“Industrial policy in China often entails measures to discriminate against foreign enterprises,” the Merics report said. “For instance, the national and local governments restrict access to public procurement and limit the possibility of inward-directed foreign-direct investment.”

墨卡托在報(bào)告中表示：“中國的工業(yè)政策往往涉及對(duì)外國企業(yè)的歧視措施。例如，中央和地方政府限制外資進(jìn)入公共采購領(lǐng)域，并限制外商直接投資進(jìn)入中國的可能性。”

Such measures are not yet prevalent in the areas of “smart” manufacturing, including robotics, industrial software, sensors and others, because most Chinese companies are currently too backward to benefit. But this could change as domestic companies climb the technology ladder and move into direct competition with foreign corporations in China.

此類歧視措施在“智能”制造領(lǐng)域(包括機(jī)器人、工業(yè)軟件、傳感器以及其他)還不盛行，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)中國企業(yè)當(dāng)前在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域還過于落后而無法從歧視措施中受益。但隨著企業(yè)技術(shù)升級(jí)，與在華外企展開直接競爭，這種情況可能發(fā)生改變。

Such an intent, the report says, can be seen in a semi-official document called Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap, which has been endorsed by Ma Kai, a vice-premier and the official heading the interministerial Leading Small Group for Constructing a Manufacturing Superpower.

報(bào)告稱，這種意圖可以在《<中國制造2025>重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域技術(shù)路線圖》這個(gè)半官方文件中看到。該路線圖得到中國副總理馬凱的支持，后者還擔(dān)任跨部門的“國家制造強(qiáng)國建設(shè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組”的組長。

The semi-official document shows aggressive targets for market share in selected industries (see chart below), as well as the range of industries targeted.

這個(gè)半官方文件中列出了在一些特定行業(yè)(見下表)要取得的市場份額的遠(yuǎn)大目標(biāo)，以及目標(biāo)行業(yè)的范圍。

Indications of strong state support are reinforced by funding being made available to spur Chinese innovation in smart manufacturing. The Advanced Manufacturing Fund, established this year, was approved by the State Council (cabinet) and is charged with spending its Rmb20bn allocation on upgrading the technology of important industries.

大量資金被用于激勵(lì)智能制造領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新，這進(jìn)一步顯示出國家的大力支持。今年成立的“先進(jìn)制造產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金”(Advanced Manufacturing Fund)是經(jīng)中國國務(wù)院批準(zhǔn)的，肩負(fù)著利用200億元人民幣進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)行業(yè)技術(shù)升級(jí)優(yōu)化的使命。

Another fund, the National Integrated Circuit Fund, has capital of Rmb139bn at its disposal and the Emerging Industries Investment Fund, which was also approved by the State Council, has Rmb40bn to spend on promising domestic companies.

另一只基金——國家集成電路產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金(National Integrated Circuit Fund)擁有1390億元人民幣的可支配資金，還有同樣由國務(wù)院批準(zhǔn)的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)投資引導(dǎo)基金(Emerging Industries Investment Fund)有400億元人民幣用于扶持國內(nèi)新秀企業(yè)。

The Merics report suggests that such assistance, plus the ability of some companies to undertake acquisitions of industry leaders overseas, is likely to catapult some Chinese manufacturing giants into the vanguard of global technology.

墨卡托報(bào)告中提出，此類支持，再加上一些公司在海外收購行業(yè)領(lǐng)軍者的能力，可能將一些中國制造業(yè)巨頭推向全球科技先鋒之列。

Home appliance firms such as Haier, Hisense, Midea and Gree are potential frontrunners, with each of them already engaged in turning their fridges, televisions, air conditioners, washing machines and other gadgets into “smart” products by adding internet connectivity that allows, for instance, consumers to order shopping from their fridge or control their washing machine from a mobile phone.

海爾(Haier)、海信(Hisense)、美的(Midea)和格力(Gree)等家電企業(yè)是潛在的領(lǐng)跑者，它們都已經(jīng)在將冰箱、電視、空調(diào)、洗衣機(jī)以及其他設(shè)備轉(zhuǎn)化為“智能”產(chǎn)品，讓它們聯(lián)上互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，使消費(fèi)者可以進(jìn)行多種操作，比如從冰箱訂購商品或者用手機(jī)控制洗衣機(jī)。

In the construction industry, companies such as Sany and Zoomlion, for example, possess advanced production processes while car component maker, Weichai, owns advanced hydraulic technology, and steelmaker Baosteel has developed several advanced techniques that make for greater precision and efficiency in steel smelting.

在建筑行業(yè)，三一重工(Sany)和中聯(lián)重科(Zoomlion)等公司擁有先進(jìn)的生產(chǎn)流程，同時(shí)汽車零部件制造商濰柴集團(tuán)(Weichai)擁有先進(jìn)的液壓技術(shù)，鋼鐵制造商寶鋼(Baosteel)發(fā)展出數(shù)項(xiàng)先進(jìn)技術(shù)，有利于提高鋼鐵冶煉的精度和效率。

The confluence of funding for innovation, official support and access to overseas acquisitions is set to galvanise an already active patent application process among Chinese companies.

鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)新的資金、官方支持以及能夠前往海外并購等因素，激勵(lì)了中國企業(yè)本就活躍的專利申請(qǐng)。

Although questions persist over the quality of Chinese patent applications filed, the predominance of filings outstanding (see chart) for traditional robots and communications devices such as wireless sensors and smart sensors shows a correlation with state support in these areas, according to the report. In advanced robots, however, Chinese technology remains well behind US and German technology.

盡管對(duì)中國申請(qǐng)的專利質(zhì)量質(zhì)疑不斷，但該報(bào)告稱，傳統(tǒng)機(jī)器人以及無線傳感器和智能傳感器等通信設(shè)備的專利申請(qǐng)數(shù)量占很大比重與這些領(lǐng)域的政府支持有關(guān)。然而，在先進(jìn)機(jī)器人領(lǐng)域，中國技術(shù)依然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于美國和德國技術(shù)。

The data above was collected for so called “Industry 4.0” products, which is to say products or technologies in the automation and data exchange categories, including the internet of things and cloud computing.

上述數(shù)據(jù)是為所謂的“工業(yè)4.0”產(chǎn)品收集的，這個(gè)概念指的是自動(dòng)化和數(shù)據(jù)交換類別的產(chǎn)品或技術(shù)，包括物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和云計(jì)算。