華爾街的賺錢經(jīng) 第15期:股票價值 該用多長遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

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The Stock Value Wasn't Decided by Economic Conditions

股票價值，該用多長遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

The stock mark jump 6% last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery. It has risen 39% from the March lows on similar hopes. Of course, it had previously fallen nearly 60% on fears of a slump.

對經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇指日可待的希望日益加大，受此提振，美國股市上周漲了6%。在同樣希望的推動下，股市較3月份的低點漲了39%。當(dāng)然，受經(jīng)濟滑坡?lián)鷳n的拖累，美股此前跌了近60%。

All these moves have on thing in common: Millions of investors have acted on the belief that shared values are closely related to what will happen in the economy in the next few months and years, But are they right?

股市的所有這些走勢都有一個共同點，那就是數(shù)百萬投資者的行為都是基于這樣一種觀點：股價與未來幾個月和未來幾年的經(jīng)濟形勢密切相關(guān)。但是他們的看法對嗎?

Not according to Ben inker, director of asset allocation at contrarian fund company Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. In a recent and fascinating note, Mr. Inker persuasively argues that the next moves in the economy shouldn't actually matter too much to investors at all.

反向投資基金公司 Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.的資產(chǎn)配置主管本·印克可不這樣認(rèn)為。在最近一份頗有趣的報告中，印克很有說服力地辯稱道，投資者實際上不應(yīng)該過于看重近期的經(jīng)濟走勢。

Why? Two reasons.

為什么呢?有兩個原因。

First, because most of the value of shares really depends on the cash they will generate many years, even decades, ahead. The next few years are only a minuscule part of the equation. "Since stocks do not have an expiration date and dividends grow over time," Mr. Inker argues, "the duration of stocks is extremely long. If we assume that half of the return from stocks in a given year comes from the dividends and half from the growth in dividends, most of the value of stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future."

首先是因為股票價值大部分取決于未來很多年甚至幾十年里股票產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金。今后的幾年只是其中很短的一段時間。印克說，“由于股票沒有到期日，股息隨著時間的增長而增長，股票持續(xù)的時間非常長。如果我們假定某一年里股票的一半收益來自股息，另一半來自股息的增長，那么大部分股票價值都來自未來的現(xiàn)金流”。

How distant? Using Mr. Inker's hypothesis, it turns out that about 75% of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now. Half the value is based on dividends to be paid after 25 years, and a quarter on those to be paid after about 50 years.

多遠(yuǎn)的未來?利用印克的假設(shè)得出，約75%的股票價值實際上取決于未來11年之后的股息收入。一半的股票價值取決于25年之后的股息，四分之一的股票價值取決于50年之后的股息收入。

In other words, when you look at the market today, three quarters of its true value is based on what companies will earn and pay out after 2020 and half is based on what they will do after 2034. So really, how much attention should you pay to next quarter's earnings?

也就是說，當(dāng)你看今天的股市時，真正價值中的四分之三要看2020年之后公司的盈利和股息，一半的價值要取決于公司2034年之后的表現(xiàn)。因此，你該對下個季度的公司收益投入多大的關(guān)注呢?

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy's next move. No matter what happens next month or next year, sooner or later the economy will probably find its way back onto its long-term path anyway. If we now boom wildly, we'll pay for it with weaker growth down the line And if things are bad for a while, eventually they'll pick Up. That can be true even for devastating blows. GMO's calculations show that by the late 1940s, Mr. Inker writes, the U.S. economy had returned to the long-term growth paths if the Depression had never happened."

不要對短期的經(jīng)濟走勢關(guān)注過多，這是第二個原因。無論下個月或是明年發(fā)生什么事，經(jīng)濟或許早晚都會重新回到長期的發(fā)展道路上去。如果現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟瘋狂增長，那么代價就是今后增幅會減小。如果一段時期形勢不好，最終總會好起來的。即使是對災(zāi)難性的打擊也是這樣。印克寫道，據(jù) Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.計算，到20世紀(jì)40年代末，美國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)回到了長期的增長道路上，就像大蕭條從來沒有發(fā)生過一樣。

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.

這類分析是對股市情緒的一劑有效的“解毒劑”。

Wall Street is back on its happy pills again. At some point, maybe even soon, brokers may start urging us to pay too much for stocks on the basis of this year's economic growth or next. Canny investors may respond: But what about 2034?

華爾街叉開始吃“忘憂藥”了。有一天，或許很快，經(jīng)紀(jì)人就可能開始敦促我們根據(jù)今年或明年的經(jīng)濟增長情況花高價買股票了。謹(jǐn)慎的投資者可能會問2034年的情形會怎樣呢?