美國面臨洪災(zāi)風險的房屋比此前已知的多出數(shù)百萬

美國面臨洪災(zāi)風險的房屋比此前已知的多出數(shù)百萬

Millions more properties than previously known across the US are at substantial risk of flooding. And as climate change accelerates, many more will see their flood risk grow.

在美國，面臨洪水威脅的房屋比之前已知的多出數(shù)百萬。隨著氣候變化加速，更多的人面臨的洪水風險將增加。

Those are the findings of a comprehensive new analysis by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group that experts say has put together the fullest picture yet of the country's growing vulnerability to flooding.

這是非營利研究和技術(shù)組織第一街基金會一項全面的新分析的結(jié)果。專家們說，該組織對美國日益脆弱的洪災(zāi)做出了最全面的分析。

Today, around 8.7 million properties are located in Special Flood Hazard Areas as determined by FEMA's flood maps, the legal standard used in the US to manage floodplains, determine insurance requirements and price policy premiums.

如今，約870萬處房屋位于美國聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理局(FEMA)洪水地圖確定的特殊洪水危險區(qū)，這是美國管理洪泛區(qū)、確定保險要求和保險費率的法律標準。

But as many as 14.6 million properties -- nearly 70% more than are in FEMA's Special Flood Hazard Areas -- may actually be at significant risk of flooding, according to First Street's modeling. The discrepancy between FEMA's maps and this new data means that some 6 million property owners could be unaware of their current flood risk, the group says.

但是，根據(jù)第一街(基金會)的模型，有多達1460萬的房屋——比聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理局的特殊洪水危險區(qū)高出近70%——實際上可能面臨嚴重的洪水風險。該組織說，聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理局的地圖和這個新數(shù)據(jù)之間的差異意味著大約600萬業(yè)主可能沒有意識到他們目前的洪水風險。

"If you're a homeowner, renter or buyer in this country and you want to understand flood risk, the only data that's available to you are the FEMA flood maps," said Matthew Eby, First Street's founder and executive director. "And the FEMA flood maps are made to determine flood insurance rates -- not necessarily to determine what your personal flood risk is."

第一街(基金會)的創(chuàng)始人和執(zhí)行董事馬修·埃比說:“如果你是這個國家的房主、租房者或購房者，你想了解洪水風險，你唯一能得到的數(shù)據(jù)就是聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理局的洪水地圖。”“聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理署的洪水地圖是用來確定洪水保險費率的，而不是用來確定你個人的洪水風險。”

As climate change raises sea levels and leads to more extreme rainfall events, even more homeowners will have to contend with the threat of flooding.

隨著氣候變化導致海平面上升和更多極端降雨事件，更多的房主將不得不應(yīng)對洪水的威脅。

First Street found that by 2050, the number of properties at significant risk of flooding is expected to climb even further to 16.2 million.

第一街(基金會)發(fā)現(xiàn)，到2050年，面臨嚴重洪災(zāi)風險的房屋數(shù)量預(yù)計將進一步攀升至1620萬。

The issue is already growing in urgency, as huge swaths of the country have been inundated by devastating floods in recent years.

這個問題已經(jīng)變得迫在眉睫,因為近年來,該國的大片地區(qū)已經(jīng)被毀滅性的洪水所淹沒。

Flooding is now the most common and costly natural disaster in the US, causing some $155 billion in property damages in the last decade, according to Michael Grimm, the assistant administrator for risk management for the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, who testified before the House Science Committee in February.

美國聯(lián)邦保險與減災(zāi)署負責風險管理的助理署長邁克爾•格里姆今年2月在眾議院科學委員會作證時說，洪災(zāi)目前是美國最常見、成本最高的自然災(zāi)害，過去10年造成約1550億美元的財產(chǎn)損失。

Last year, many parts of the Midwest and South were swamped by flood waters that lingered for months and caused $6.2 billion in damages and four deaths, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

根據(jù)美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)的數(shù)據(jù)，去年，中西部和南部的許多地區(qū)被洪水淹沒，洪水持續(xù)了數(shù)月，造成62億美元的損失和4人死亡。

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey, a powerful Category 4 storm, dumped a record-breaking 51 inches of rain on parts of Texas, putting large parts of Houston underwater. But about half of the homes in Houston affected by flooding were outside mapped floodplains, according to a National Academy of Sciences report on urban flooding.

2017年，威力強大的4級颶風哈維(Harvey)給德克薩斯州部分地區(qū)帶來了創(chuàng)紀錄的51英寸(約合54厘米)的降雨，使休斯頓的大部分地區(qū)被淹沒。但根據(jù)美國國家科學院關(guān)于城市洪水的報告，休斯頓受洪水影響的房屋中，約有一半位于地圖繪制的洪泛區(qū)之外。

Right now, First Street's flood models show that the states with the greatest proportion of properties currently at substantial risk are West Virginia, Louisiana, Florida, Idaho and Montana.

目前，第一街(基金會)的洪水模型顯示，目前面臨重大風險的房屋比例最大的州是西弗吉尼亞、路易斯安那、佛羅里達、愛達荷和蒙大拿。

In the future, changing precipitation patterns will continue to cause problems for many inland towns and cities.

今后，變化的降水模式將繼續(xù)給許多內(nèi)陸城鎮(zhèn)帶來問題。

But as the climate changes, the combined threats of storm surge from hurricanes and sea level rise means flooding will be most dramatic in coastal areas, First Street found.

但第一街(基金會)發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著氣候變化，颶風帶來的風暴潮和海平面上升的雙重威脅意味著，沿海地區(qū)的洪水將最為嚴重。