蓋茨夫婦2019年公開信

每年，蓋茨夫婦都會發(fā)布一封年度公開信，一起回顧過去的一年。2月中旬，夫婦二人公布了第10封公開信。在信中，他們回顧了2018年的9個surprises。雖然現(xiàn)在世界面臨的一些問題，但是每個人都在身體力行地努力。

所以面對“這個世界會好嗎”的一問，我想我們可以樂觀地說，因為有善良的我們，這個世界一定會變好的。

How would you describe 2018?

你怎么評價2018年?

Was it what you expected?

是你想象的那樣嗎?

We’d probably say no. From especially devastating natural disasters on the one hand to record numbers of women campaigning for office on the other, 2018 felt to us like a series of surprises. The world looking backward from today is very different from what we pictured a couple years ago looking forward.

我們的答案恐怕是否定的。無論是毀滅性的自然災害，還是參加競選的女性數(shù)量創(chuàng)下的記錄，對我們來說，2018年發(fā)生了很多意料之外的事情。從今天回望過去，這個世界已經(jīng)和我們幾年前展望的世界大相徑庭。

A benefit of surprises is that they’re often a prod to action. It can gnaw at people to realize that the realities of the world don’t match their expectations for it. Some surprises help people see that the status quo needs to change. Some surprises underscore that transformation is happening already.

驚喜的好處是它們經(jīng)常激勵我們行動。這些意料之外的事情困擾著人們，讓他們意識到現(xiàn)實與自己的期望并不匹配。有些意外讓我們意識到現(xiàn)狀需要改變，有些意外則強調改變已經(jīng)在發(fā)生。

In this year’s annual letter, we’re highlighting nine more things that have surprised us along this journey. Some worry us. Others inspire us. All of them are prodding us to action. We hope they do the same for you, because that’s how the world gets better.

在今年的年度信里，我們突出強調一路走來的九個意外。有些讓我們憂慮，有些給我們啟迪，但無一不激勵我們行動。我們希望這些意外對你們有同樣的影響，因為這樣，世界才能變得更好。

SURPRISE 1

Africa is the youngest continent.

非洲是最年輕的大陸。

The world keeps getting older, but Africa stays (nearly) the same age. It sounds confusing, but it makes sense when you break it down.

全球老齡化趨勢仍在持續(xù)，但非洲的年齡(幾乎)沒變。這聽起來令人費解，仔細分析一下發(fā)現(xiàn)言之有理。

The global median age is on the rise. In every part of the world, people are living longer. As more children survive to adulthood, women are having fewer kids than ever before. The result is a global population that’s creeping slowly toward middle age.

全球的中值年齡不斷提高，在世界的每個地方，人們的壽命更長。隨著越來越多的孩子能長大成人，婦女的生育數(shù)量比之前下降，帶來的結果就是全球人口年齡正在慢慢地向中年靠攏。

Except in Africa. The median age there is just 18. In North America, it is 35. And the number of young Africans is expected to rise in the decades to come.

但非洲卻是例外。非洲的中值年齡只有18歲，北美的則是35歲。未來幾十年，非洲的年輕人數(shù)量有望上升。

When economists describe the conditions under which countries prosper, one of the factors they stress is “human capital,” which is another way of saying that the future depends on young people’s access to high-quality health and education services. Health and education are the twin engines of economic growth.

經(jīng)濟學家談到經(jīng)濟繁榮的諸多要素，他們會強調其中的一個因素是“人力資本”。換言之，未來取決于年輕人獲得優(yōu)質的健康和教育服務的機會。健康和教育是經(jīng)濟增長的雙引擎。

If sub-Saharan Africa commits to investing in its young people, the region could double its share of the global labor force by 2050, unlocking a better life for hundreds of millions of people.

如果撒哈拉以南的非洲國家能對年輕人進行投資，那么到2050年，該地區(qū)的勞動力在全球的占比會翻一番，并為億萬民眾開啟更好的生活。

Girls’ education, especially, is among the most powerful forces on the planet. Educated girls are healthier. They are wealthier. And their families benefit, too. The more education a woman has, the better equipped she is to raise healthy children.

尤其是女孩的教育堪稱全球最強大的力量。受過教育的女孩更健康、更富裕。她們的家庭也會受益。女性受到的教育水平越多，就更能養(yǎng)育健康的子女。

SURPRISE 2

At-home DNA tests can find serial killers—and could also help prevent premature birth.

家庭基因檢測既能幫助發(fā)現(xiàn)“連環(huán)殺手”，又能預防早產(chǎn)。

When police used genetic test results to catch the Golden State Killer last year, the story made headlines around the world. But it’s not the only discovery to come out of at-home DNA tests. By looking at more than 40,000 samples voluntarily submitted by 23andMe users, scientists discovered a potential link between preterm labor and six genes—including one that regulates how the body uses a mineral called selenium.

去年，一則警察利用基因檢測結果抓獲“金州殺手”的新聞轟動世界。但家庭基因檢測的發(fā)現(xiàn)不止于此?；驒z測公司23andMe的用戶自愿提交了四萬多份樣本，通過分析這些樣本，科學家們發(fā)現(xiàn)了早產(chǎn)與六個基因之間的潛在關聯(lián)，其中的一個基因負責調節(jié)人體如何利用礦物質硒。

Some people have a gene that prevents them from processing selenium properly. The 23andMe study (which our foundation helped fund) found that expectant mothers who carry that gene were more likely to give birth early. This suggests that selenium plays a role in determining when a woman begins labor.

有些人的基因妨礙硒的正常代謝。由蓋茨基金會資助的23andMe研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，攜帶這種基因的孕婦更易早產(chǎn)，這表明硒對產(chǎn)婦的分娩時間有重要影響。

Understanding what causes prematurity is hugely important. Researchers won’t know until later this year how exactly the mineral affects preterm birth risk. But if the link proves substantial, selenium could one day be a cheap and easy solution to help women extend their pregnancy to full term.

了解早產(chǎn)的原因非常重要。到今年年底，研究者們將有望搞清楚硒對早產(chǎn)風險的確切影響。如果二者之間的關聯(lián)足夠顯著，硒有可能成為幫助孕婦足月生產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟、易行的解決方法。

For the vast majority of preterm births, we can’t identify the cause, nor do we know why some groups of women are more prone to delivering their babies early. But here’s one thing we do know: Prematurity is not binary. It matters a lot how early a baby is born; a baby born at 36 weeks is much better off than a baby born at 34 weeks. Our goal should not be to prevent prematurity categorically, which may be impossible anyway. Instead, it should be to extend pregnancies closer to full term for everyone. And we’re finally starting to fill the gaps in our knowledge about how to do so.

我們無法識別大多數(shù)早產(chǎn)發(fā)生的原因，也不知道為什么有些孕婦更容易早產(chǎn)。但我們很清楚地知道一件事：早產(chǎn)不是二元的。一個嬰兒生產(chǎn)的時間有重要的影響——36周出生的嬰兒要比34周出生的嬰兒健康得多。我們的目標不應該是絕對地杜絕早產(chǎn)，這也不可能發(fā)生。我們的目標應該是將孕期盡量接近足月?，F(xiàn)在，我們終于開始填補這方面的知識空白。

SURPRISE 3

We will build an entire New York City every month.

今后四十年，全世界每個月將新建一個紐約市。

I wish more people fully understood what it will take to stop climate change. Electricity accounts for only a quarter of all the greenhouse gases emitted around the world. Manufacturing isn’t far behind, at 21 percent.

我希望更多的人能充分了解如何才能阻止氣候變化。電力只占全球溫室氣體排放總量的四分之一。制造業(yè)也沒有落后，占21%。

As the urban population continues to grow in the coming decades, the world’s building stock is expected to double by 2060—the equivalent of adding another New York City monthly between now and then. That’s a lot of cement and steel. We need to find a way to make it all without worsening climate change.

在未來幾十年，隨著城市人口的持續(xù)增長，全球建筑物到2060年預計將會翻倍，相當于從現(xiàn)在開始每月新建一個紐約市。這需要大量鋼鐵水泥。我們需要想辦法在不加劇氣候變化的前提下實現(xiàn)這一切。

The larger point is that if we’re going to solve climate change, we need to get to near-zero emissions on all the things that drive it—agriculture, electricity, manufacturing, transportation, and buildings. I call these five areas the grand challenges in climate change.

重要的是，我們如果要解決氣候變化，就要讓農(nóng)業(yè)、電力、制造、交通、建筑等所有導致氣候變化的行業(yè)都實現(xiàn)近零排放。我把這五個領域稱為氣候變化的五大挑戰(zhàn)。

But we need to do a much better job of informing people about the challenges. It would help if media coverage matched the breadth of the problem. Solar panels are great, but we should be hearing about trucks, and cement too.

我們需要更好地努力讓公眾了解這些挑戰(zhàn)，而媒體對這些問題的廣泛關注將對此大有幫助。太陽能電池板，但我們也應該了解卡車、水泥等方面的信息。

SURPRISE 4

Data can be sexist.

數(shù)據(jù)也存在性別歧視。

I spend big chunks of my day studying data on health and development. I’m amazed at how little data we have on women and girls. I think the main reason is that we create this artificial divide where some issues are “women’s” issues and others aren’t, and the women’s issues don’t get as much in-depth study. That blocks progress for everyone. You can’t improve things if you don’t know what’s going on with half the population. There’s no good reason for that, now that technology makes it so much easier to gather data.

我每天花大量的時間研究有關健康和發(fā)展的數(shù)據(jù)。關于婦女和女童的數(shù)據(jù)如此之少，讓我非常驚訝。我想主要原因在于我們人為地將某些問題劃分為“女性”問題和其他問題，而女性問題通常得不到深入研究。這將妨礙每個人的進步。如果不了解全球半數(shù)人口的情況，就無法改善事情。更何況科技讓數(shù)據(jù)收集更加簡單，我們沒有理由這樣。

How much income did women in developing countries earn last year? How much property do they own? How many more hours do girls spend on household chores than boys? I don’t know. Neither does anyone else. The data just doesn’t exist.

發(fā)展中國家的婦女去的年收入多少?她們擁有多少財產(chǎn)?女孩花在家務上的時間比男孩多多少?我不知道，其他人也不知道。這些數(shù)據(jù)不存在。

The problem isn’t only that some women are missing from the record altogether. It’s also that the data we do have—data that policymakers depend on—is bad. You might even call it sexist. We like to think of data as being objective, but the answers we get are often shaped by the questions we ask. When those questions are biased, the data is too.

問題不只是數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計忽略了部分女性，而且我們擁有的，決策者們所依據(jù)的現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)質量很糟糕，甚至可以說是帶有性別歧視的。我們通常認為數(shù)據(jù)是客觀的，但我們得到的答案往往受我們提出的問題的影響。如果問題本身就帶有偏見，得到的數(shù)據(jù)也會如此。

When such flawed data is all you have to go on, it’s easy to undervalue women’s economic activity—and difficult to measure whether women’s economic condition is improving.

如果我們必須以這些有缺陷的數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)，就容易低估女性經(jīng)濟活動的價值，也難以衡量女性的經(jīng)濟狀況是否得到改善。

SURPRISE 5

You can learn a lot about processing your anger from teenage boys.

跟青少年學習憤怒管理。

When economists describe the conditions under which countries prosper, one of the factors they stress is “human capital,” which is another way of saying that the future depends on young people’s access to high-quality health and education services. Health and education are the twin engines of economic growth.

經(jīng)濟學家談到經(jīng)濟繁榮的諸多要素，他們會強調其中的一個因素是“人力資本”。換言之，未來取決于年輕人獲得優(yōu)質的健康和教育服務的機會。健康和教育是經(jīng)濟增長的雙引擎。

If sub-Saharan Africa commits to investing in its young people, the region could double its share of the global labor force by 2050, unlocking a better life for hundreds of millions of people.

如果撒哈拉以南的非洲國家能對年輕人進行投資，那么到2050年，該地區(qū)的勞動力在全球的占比會翻一番，并為億萬民眾開啟更好的生活。

Girls’ education, especially, is among the most powerful forces on the planet. Educated girls are healthier. They are wealthier. And their families benefit, too. The more education a woman has, the better equipped she is to raise healthy children. In fact, UNESCO estimates that if all women in low- and middle-income countries finished secondary school, child mortality in those countries would fall by about half.

尤其是女孩的教育堪稱全球最強大的力量。受過教育的女孩更健康、更富裕。她們的家庭也會受益。女性受到的教育水平越多，就更能養(yǎng)育健康的子女。事實上據(jù)聯(lián)合國教科文組織估計，在中低收入國家，如果所有女性都能讀完中學，那么兒童的死亡率將會下降大約一半。

Even though the circumstances were very different, learning to deal with your anger was something we all related to. It’s an important life skill, part of becoming a mature adult.

盡管境遇千差萬別，但學習控制憤怒與每個人息息相關。這是重要的人生技能，也是成為成熟的成年人的一個表現(xiàn)。

So it was inspiring to see these young men in such tough circumstances working on this skill much earlier than I did. They were deeply engaged in the conversation, asking each other thoughtful follow-up questions. They were facing big challenges with incredible resilience.

看到這些生活環(huán)境艱難的年輕人能比我更早學習這項技能，讓我深受啟發(fā)。他們深入交談，互相問了對方一些很有見地的后續(xù)問題。他們在面對重大挑戰(zhàn)時顯示出了非凡的堅韌。

SURPRISE 6

There’s a nationalist case for globalism.

全球的也是民族的。

Nationalism is a word we’ve been hearing a lot more often these days. It’s also one of the most loaded words in our 21st-century politics. While it’s come to mean different things to different people (and carry different connotations and insinuations), at its core, nationalism is the belief that a country’s first obligation is to itself. There’s an element of that that I think many of us would agree with.

最近，我們越來越頻繁地聽到民族主義這個詞。它也是21世紀政治領域最有深意的語匯之一。雖然不同的人有理解不同(帶有不同的內涵和暗示)，但民族主義的核心是一個國家首要的義務是自己本國。我想大多數(shù)人都會認同這一點。

Bill and I love our country. We believe in what it stands for. We agree that our leaders have a duty to protect it. And for all of those reasons, we consider global engagement our patriotic duty. There is nothing about putting your country first that requires turning your back on the rest of the world.

我和比爾都熱愛自己的國家，認同美國所代表的價值觀，同時也贊成領導者們有責任捍衛(wèi)我們的國家。正是出于這些原因，我們將推動全球合作視為我們的愛國責任。本國利益至上并不意味著對其他國家置之不理。

That’s one reason why Melinda and I are always talking about success stories. At a time when new outrages seem to dominate the headlines every day, we want to keep reminding people that life is getting better for millions of people in the world’s poorest countries, thanks in part to smart investments in health. Even if you only care about the welfare of your fellow citizens, these investments are overwhelmingly smart things to do. Progress benefits everyone.

這是我和梅琳達堅持講述成功故事的原因之一。當每天的新聞標題都被新的負面事件占據(jù)時，我們想不斷地提醒大家，全球最貧困國家的數(shù)億人民的生活正在改善，這一定程度上歸功于在健康領域的明智投資。即使你只關心本國同胞的福祉，這些投資也是非常明智的。進步會讓每個人都從中受益。

SURPRISE 7

When was the modern flush toilet patented?

廁所還是一百年前的老樣子。

Nearly eight years ago, Melinda and I challenged engineers and scientists around the world to reinvent the toilet. More than 2 billion people around the world lack access to a decent toilet. Their waste often ends up in the environment, untreated, killing nearly 800 children every day. And exporting rich-world sanitation solutions isn’t an option, because they require sewer systems that are too expensive to build and need a lot of water.

差不多8年前，我和梅琳達向全球各地的工程師和科學家們發(fā)出了重新發(fā)明廁所的挑戰(zhàn)。全球迄今還有20多億人用不上衛(wèi)生的廁所。他們的糞便未經(jīng)處理就進入環(huán)境，每天導致近800名兒童死亡。引進發(fā)達國家的衛(wèi)生設施行不通，因為配套的下水道系統(tǒng)建設成本過高，而且需要大量的水資源。

So what does the next generation of toilets look like? At first glance, not that different. They don’t exactly look like something out of a sci-fi novel. They might not be the sexiest innovations in the world, but the toilets of the future will save millions of lives.

所以下一代的廁所是什么樣呢?乍一看，和普通馬桶區(qū)別不大，完全不像從科幻小說里出來的東西。這些廁所未必是世界上最酷的創(chuàng)新，但它能挽救數(shù)以百萬計的生命。

They’ll also improve lives—especially for women and girls. Life without a toilet is hard for anyone, but it tends to be women and girls who suffer most.

它們還能改善生活質量，特別是對婦女和女童來說。沒有廁所的生活非常艱難，但承受最多痛苦的還是女性。

SURPRISE 8

Textbooks are becoming obsolete.

課本正變得過時。

I read more than my share of textbooks. But it’s a pretty limited way to learn something. Even the best text can’t figure out which concepts you understand and which ones you need more help with. It certainly can’t tell your teacher how well you grasped last night’s assigned reading. But now, thanks to software, the standalone textbook is becoming a thing of the past. All of this is a complement to what teachers do, not a replacement.

我讀過很多教材，但作為學習的一種途徑，教材的作用有限。即使是最好的課本也判斷不出哪些內容你已經(jīng)理解，哪些內容你還需要幫助。課本肯定也無法告訴你的老師，昨晚布置的閱讀作業(yè)，你掌握到了什么程度。但是現(xiàn)在，在軟件的幫助下，單純的課本正在成為過去。這些手段是對教師工作的補充，而非代替。

In addition to adapting to what students know, these online tools also facilitate a new approach to teaching and learning that adapts to who these students are. Put it all together, and you have students spending less for more convenient classes in which they perform better. In short, we now have the tools to redesign higher education so that it meets the needs of today’s students.

除了適應學生的學習進度，在線工具還能催生新的教學方式，根據(jù)學生的特點因材施教。把這些結合在一起，學生能花更少的錢、更方便地學習，并在課堂上取得更好的學習效果。簡而言之，我們已經(jīng)具備重新設計高等教育的工具，使之滿足當今學生的需求。

SURPRISE 9

Mobile phones are most powerful in the hands of the poorest women.

在貧困女性的手中，手機的作用能發(fā)揮到最大。

In rich countries, mobile phones make it easier to do things we were already doing. But for the world’s most marginalized women, a mobile phone doesn’t just make their old life more convenient; it can help them build an entirely new life. That’s because connectivity is a solution to marginalization.

在發(fā)達國家，手機能讓我們本來的生活更加便利。但對于世界上被最邊緣化的女性而言，手機不只是讓他們的舊日子更便利，而且能夠幫助他們開啟全新的生活。這是因為互聯(lián)互通是打破邊緣化的解決之道。

When I think about why it’s so important to get more mobile phones in the hands of women, I think about Nikmah, a woman I met in Indonesia last October. Nikmah told me she’d tried for years to support her three children by selling vegetables, but she never could seem to make ends meet. Her situation became even more untenable after she had to flee an abusive husband.

每次提到在女性擁有手機的重要性是，我就想起去年十月在印尼見到的Nikmah女士。她告訴我，多年來她一直靠賣菜養(yǎng)活她的三個孩子，但總是入不敷出。后來她離開了家暴的丈夫，她的情況就更難以維持了。

Nikmah told me, “Life is like a wheel. Sometimes you’re under, sometimes you’re on top.” For women like her who have spent so much of their lives trapped on the bottom, mobile technology creates new opportunities to fight inequity and lift themselves up. We can help women seize these opportunities by ensuring that inequity doesn’t keep them from having access to technology in the first place.

Nikmah對我說：“生活就像一個輪子，有時你被它碾下去，有時你也能站上來。”對于像她這樣長期在底層生活的女性來說，移動技術讓她們有了新的機會反抗不公、提升自己。我們打破不平等，確保她們最初有機會接觸移動技術，幫助她們抓住這些機會。

We get asked a lot these days whether we’re still optimistic about the future. We say: Absolutely. One reason is that we believe in the power of innovation. But an even bigger reason is that we’ve seen firsthand that for every challenge we’ve written about in this letter, there are people devoting their ideas, their resources, and even their lives to solving them.

最近常有人問我們對未來是否仍然樂觀。我們的回答是肯定的。其中一個原因是我們相信創(chuàng)新的力量。但更重要的是，我們親眼看到，對于我們在信中談及的每一個挑戰(zhàn)，都有很多人在奉獻著自己的智慧、資源甚至生命。