全球變暖幅度或被嚴(yán)重低估

Collapsing polar ice caps, a green Sahara Desert, a 20-foot sea-level rise.

塌陷的極地冰山、綠色的撒哈拉沙漠、上升了20英尺的海平面……

That’s the potential future of Earth, a new study suggests, noting that global warming could be twice as warm as current climate models predict.

據(jù)一項(xiàng)新的研究顯示，這就是地球潛在的未來(lái)，并指出全球變暖可能是目前氣候模型預(yù)測(cè)的兩倍。

The rate of warming is also remarkable: “The changes we see today are much faster than anything encountered in Earth’s history. In terms of rate of change, we are in uncharted waters,” said study co-author Katrin Meissner of the University of New South Wales in Australia.

并且升溫的速度也非常驚人。研究報(bào)告作者之一、澳大利亞新南威爾士大學(xué)的卡特琳·邁斯納說(shuō)：“我們今天看到的變化比地球歷史上任何時(shí)候都要快得多。就變化率而言，我們正處于未知的水域。”

This could mean the landmark Paris Climate Agreement – which seeks to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – may not be enough to ward off catastrophe.

這可能意味著，具有里程碑意義的巴黎氣候協(xié)定——該協(xié)定尋求將全球變暖幅度控制在比工業(yè)化前水平高2攝氏度(3.6華氏度)的范圍內(nèi)——可能不足以防止災(zāi)難發(fā)生。

“Even with just 2 degrees of warming – and potentially just 1.5 degrees – significant impacts on the Earth system are profound,” said study co-author Alan Mix, a scientist from Oregon State University.

研究報(bào)告作者之一、美國(guó)俄勒岡州立大學(xué)的艾倫·米克斯說(shuō)：“即使只升溫2攝氏度——很可能只升溫1.5攝氏度——對(duì)地球系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的重大影響也將是深遠(yuǎn)的。”

“We can expect that sea-level rise could become unstoppable for millennia, impacting much of the world’s population, infrastructure and economic activity,” Mix said.

米克斯說(shuō)：“我們可以預(yù)見，海平面的上升將會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)千年，影響到世界上大部分的人口、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。”

In looking at Earth’s past, scientists can predict what the future will look like. In the study, the researchers looked back at natural global warming periods over the past 3.5 million years and compared them to current man-made warming.

通過(guò)研究地球的過(guò)去，科學(xué)家們可以預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)會(huì)是什么樣子。在這項(xiàng)研究中，研究人員回顧了過(guò)去350萬(wàn)年來(lái)自然出現(xiàn)的全球變暖期，并將它們與當(dāng)前人為的變暖期進(jìn)行了比較。

Human-inflicted climate change is caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, which release heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the the atmosphere.

人為的氣候變化是由燃燒煤、石油和天然氣等化石燃料引起的。這些活動(dòng)把聚熱的二氧化碳和甲烷等溫室氣體排放到大氣中。

Study lead author Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern in Switzerland and his team found that our current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming.

研究報(bào)告第一作者、瑞士伯爾尼大學(xué)的胡貝圖斯·費(fèi)希爾及其研究小組發(fā)現(xiàn)，我們目前的氣候預(yù)測(cè)可能低估了長(zhǎng)期變暖的影響。

Meissner said that "climate models appear to be trustworthy for small changes, such as for low-emission scenarios over short periods, say over the next few decades out to 2100. But as the change gets larger or more persistent ... it appears they underestimate climate change."

邁斯納說(shuō)：“就小的變化而言，氣候模型似乎是可靠的，比如未來(lái)幾十年一直到2100年的短期內(nèi)低排放情況。但隨著變化越來(lái)越大或持續(xù)更久……氣候模型似乎低估了氣候變化。”

The study, which was conducted by dozens of researchers from 17 countries, was published last week in Nature Geoscience, a peer-reviewed British journal.

這項(xiàng)研究是由來(lái)自17個(gè)國(guó)家的數(shù)十名研究人員進(jìn)行的，研究報(bào)告發(fā)表在英國(guó)一份同行審閱的雜志《自然·地球科學(xué)》月刊上。