世界第五大經(jīng)濟體加州的繁榮與痛苦

SAN FRANCISCO — When a transportation agency said two years ago that rush hours were a thing of the past on a major highway in the San Francisco Bay Area, it was not good news.

舊金山——兩年前一個政府運輸部門稱舊金山灣區(qū)一條主要高速公路已經(jīng)不存在高峰期，那其實不是什么好消息。

“For the first time on record, the morning and evening peak periods have merged,” said a spokesman for the agency, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, “creating a continuously congested freeway from 5:30 in the morning until nearly 8 o’clock at night.”

“有史以來第一次，早高峰和晚高峰連起來了，”大都會運輸署(Metropolitan Transportation Authority)發(fā)言人說，“導致高速公路從早上5點半持續(xù)擁堵到晚上將近8點。”

It has only gotten worse.

此后情況進一步惡化。

California’s economy has soared into the stratosphere, but not without inflicting some pain. Paralyzing traffic is one symptom; the increasingly absurd price of putting a roof over one’s head is another.

加利福尼亞的經(jīng)濟水平已經(jīng)升到九霄云外，但并不是沒有帶來痛苦。交通癱瘓是其中一個癥狀，另一個是越來越荒唐的房價。

One person from the Midwest devised a quick formula to calculate the price of a house in the Bay Area: See how much a similar house would cost in Minnesota and then add a million dollars.

一個中西部人想出了一個計算灣區(qū)房價的便捷公式：看看類似的房屋在明尼蘇達州要花多少錢，然后再加一百萬美元。

Every few weeks there seems to be another story in the California news media about a dilapidated shack in an ordinary neighborhood selling for seven figures, just to be torn down. It has become common enough to lose its shock value.

似乎每隔幾周加州新聞里就會出現(xiàn)這樣一則報道，某普通地段的破舊棚屋賣了七位數(shù)，買下來就夷為平地了。這種事情變得太常見，以至沒人感到震驚。

California recorded another milestone last week, one reflecting a prouder facet of the state’s success. If the state were an independent country, its economy would rank as the fifth-largest in the world, ahead of Britain’s (which has been crawling lately). California held that spot once before, but it slipped a bit during the Great Recession a decade ago.

上周，加州迎來了另一座里程碑，從比較正面的角度體現(xiàn)了這里的成功。如果加州是一個獨立的國家，它的經(jīng)濟排在世界第五，位列英國(近年增長緩慢)之前。加州以前有一次也達到過這個名次，但在十年前的大衰退中位次下滑。

As the state has blossomed, outpacing many others, it has reinforced a liberal narrative about growth, that a state can have big government and a booming economy, too. (Texas is the conservatives’ counterexample: a big, fast-growing economy under laissez-faire government.)

隨著經(jīng)濟增長速度領先于其他州，加州鞏固了有關增長的一種自由主義敘事，即一個州可以同時擁有大政府和繁榮的經(jīng)濟。(德克薩斯州是保守派的反例：自由放任的政府治下，經(jīng)濟規(guī)模龐大，增長迅速。)

California has strict environmental protections, a progressive tax system and an ascendant minimum wage, now $10.50 an hour and set to rise in stages to $15 in 2023. The state welcomes immigrants, celebrates ethnic and linguistic diversity, and actively tries to combat climate change. And with all that, its economy continues to soar.

加州環(huán)保政策嚴格，實行累進稅收制度，最低工資不斷上調(diào)?，F(xiàn)在的最低工資是一小時10.50美元，2023年將逐步上調(diào)到15美元。加州歡迎移民，弘揚族群和語言的多元，并積極應對氣候變化。盡管如此，加州的經(jīng)濟仍在飛速增長。

“We have raised income taxes and imposed increasingly high fees to reduce greenhouse emissions,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “None of that has overridden the attractiveness of this state for talent and innovation and entrepreneurship.”

“我們提高了所得稅，并征收越來越高的費用以減少溫室氣體排放，”加州經(jīng)濟持續(xù)研究中心(Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy)主任史蒂芬·萊維(Stephen Levy)說。“這些都沒有阻礙這個州對人才、創(chuàng)新和創(chuàng)業(yè)的吸引力。”

California’s economic success underpins the state’s audacity and its defiance of President Trump. It is an invisible buttress when the governor and attorney general harangue the Trump administration, as they did recently at a news conference in Sacramento, for “basically going to war against the state of California.”

經(jīng)濟上的成功是加州大膽放肆和反抗特朗普總統(tǒng)的底氣。當該州州長和州檢察長像最近在薩克拉門托的新聞發(fā)布會上那樣，滔滔不絕地指責特朗普政府“根本是要和加州開戰(zhàn)”時，是經(jīng)濟在無形中支撐著他們。

California is not the only state doing well, of course. The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis produced a map last week showing a somewhat lopsided pattern of prosperity in America. The economies of states like Kansas and Louisiana shrank slightly last year, while those in the West thrived: Nevada grew by 3.5 percent, Washington by 4.4 percent, Arizona by 3.2 percent.

加州當然不是唯一一個表現(xiàn)優(yōu)秀的州。美國聯(lián)邦經(jīng)濟分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)上周制作的一幅地圖顯示，美國表現(xiàn)出了一種有些一邊倒的繁榮模式。去年堪薩斯和路易斯安那等州的經(jīng)濟略微萎縮，而西部各州卻欣欣向榮：內(nèi)華達州增長3.5%，華盛頓州增長4.4%，亞利桑那州增長3.2%。

Even among its booming neighbors, though, California, which saw 3 percent growth last year, stands out for the diversity and sheer size of its economy.

但即便是在增長迅速的鄰州中，去年增速3%的加州也因為多元化和經(jīng)濟的規(guī)模而格外搶眼。

Every sector contributed to the state’s growth last year except agriculture, according to Irena Asmundson, the chief economist of the California Department of Finance. Financial services and real estate led the pack, and even manufacturing, often said to be in decline in America, grew significantly, contributing $10 billion in output to the $127 billion the state added over all.

據(jù)加州財政部首席經(jīng)濟學家艾瑞娜·埃斯蒙森(Irena Asmundson)稱，除了農(nóng)業(yè)以外，去年每個行業(yè)都對該州的經(jīng)濟增長做出了貢獻。金融服務和房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是主要引領者，甚至連經(jīng)常被稱為美國衰退行業(yè)的制造業(yè)也顯著增長，為該州1270億美元的總產(chǎn)值貢獻了100億美元。

“Most of this is a lot of relatively small firms that are very specialized,” Ms. Asmundson said of the growth in manufacturing.

“其中大部分是規(guī)模較小的、非常專業(yè)化的公司，”埃斯蒙森在談到制造業(yè)的增長時表示。

Another barometer of growth is the surge in people using California’s airports, especially the regional ones. Airports in Long Beach, San Jose, San Luis Obispo and Sonoma all saw double-digit percentage increases in passenger traffic in 2017.

增長的另一個表現(xiàn)是使用加州機場的人數(shù)激增，尤其是地區(qū)性機場。2017年，長灘、圣何塞、圣路易斯奧比斯波以及索諾馬機場的客運量都出現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)的增長。

Unsurprisingly, Silicon Valley is a big part of California’s success. One of the state’s technology giants, Apple, brought in more revenue in its latest fiscal year — $229 billion — than the entire economic output of Wyoming, five times over.

毫無疑問，硅谷是加州成功的重要組成部分。該州的科技巨頭蘋果公司在最近一個財年里所創(chuàng)造的收入，是懷俄明州全部經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)量的5倍多，達到了2290億美元。

All of that money pouring in to California’s tech and entertainment industries produces a big wealth effect, ballooning what the state’s workers can spend — and not just those who work directly in those fields.

涌入加州科技和娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)的所有資金都產(chǎn)生了巨大的財富效應，增加了該州工人的可支出收入——不僅是那些直接在這些領域工作的人。

Facebook revealed last month that the median pay of its employees was $240,430 a year. But the fire chief in San Ramon has been doing pretty well, too, with total pay and benefits of $516,344 in 2016, according to the website Transparent California. And nearly 200 police officers across the state make more than $300,000 a year, when overtime and benefits are included.

Facebook上個月透露，它的員工年薪中位數(shù)為240430美元。但據(jù)透明加州網(wǎng)站(Transparent California)稱，圣拉蒙市消防局長的收入也不低——2016年的總薪酬和福利為516344美元。該州有近200名警察的年收入超過30萬美元，包括加班和福利。

Like many states, California has persistent worries about how it will cover its pension obligations down the road, and those high rates of pay for public sector workers do not help matters. But in these boom times, California’s bright fiscal position is a world away from the federal government’s. The state treasury is flush with cash, and is socking billions away in a rainy-day fund.

和許多州一樣，加州一直在擔心如何負擔未來的養(yǎng)老金，公共部門員工的高工資也無助于解決這個問題。但在經(jīng)濟繁榮時期，加州良好的財政狀況是聯(lián)邦政府難以企及的。州政府的金庫現(xiàn)金充裕，還積攢了數(shù)十億美元的應急資金。

When Gov. Jerry Brown returned to office in 2011, he faced a budget deficit of $27 billion. Now, after eight years of economic expansion, the state has a surplus of $6 billion, and its tax revenues are running well ahead of projections.

2011年再次當選時，州長杰里·布朗(Jerry Brown)面臨著270億美元的預算赤字?，F(xiàn)在，經(jīng)過八年的經(jīng)濟擴張，加州已有60億美元的盈余，稅收遠超預期。

Yet it is hard to overlook the pain that prosperity has brought: traffic, property prices, homelessness.

可是，我們很難忽視繁榮帶來的痛苦：交通堵塞、房價高漲、無家可歸。

Those last two issues are increasingly seen as sides of the same coin. In 2017, California saw the fastest growth in its homeless population of any state (14 percent), and also had the highest proportion of them unsheltered: 68 percent of the state’s 134,000 homeless people sleep outdoors.

最后兩個問題日益被視為同一枚硬幣的兩面。2017年，在美國各州中，加州的無家可歸人口增長速度最快(14%)，無家可歸者的比例也最高：該州13.4萬無家可歸者中有68%露宿街頭。

All economic booms run out of steam sooner or later, and some Californians say they might welcome a little relief from this one. William Yu, an economist with the Anderson Forecast at the U.C.L.A. Anderson School of Management, recalls a panel discussion a month ago with real estate developers.

所有的經(jīng)濟繁榮遲早都會衰退，有些加州人表示，他們也許樂于看到經(jīng)濟稍有衰退。加州大學安德森商學院(U.C.L.A. Anderson School of Management)安德森預測中心(Anderson Forecast)的經(jīng)濟學家威廉·于(William Yu，音)回憶起一個月前與房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的一次座談。

“One developer was asked, ‘Are you worried about a recession coming?’” Mr. Yu said. “The developer said, ‘I’m not worried at all. I’m waiting for it.’”

“一位開發(fā)商被問道：‘你擔心出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退嗎?’”威廉·于說。“這位開發(fā)商表示，‘我一點都不擔心。我在等它來。’”

Why? So he can snap up some properties at cheaper prices.

為什么?因為那樣他就可以以便宜些的價格搶購一些房產(chǎn)了。