文在寅的靜默外交：他如何緩和朝核危機？

For almost his entire political career, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been dogged by criticism that he is an appeaser who lacks the diplomatic prowess to deal with North Korea.

在幾乎整個政治生涯中，韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅(Moon Jae-in)一直被批評是一個綏靖主義者，欠缺與朝鮮打交道所需的高超外交手腕。

Now the Korean peninsula seemingly stands on the cusp of a breakthrough, with Pyongyang appearing willing to compromise on its nuclear weapons programme — a situation analysts say could not have happened without the quiet, careful diplomacy of Mr Moon.

現在，朝鮮半島局勢似乎即將取得突破性進展，朝鮮看起來愿意在核武計劃上妥協(xié)——分析人士表示，如果沒有文在寅低調謹慎的外交斡旋，這種局面是不可能達成的。

“Mr Moon should be credited for significantly reducing the risk of war on the Korean peninsula by opening dialogue with North Korea,” says Paik Hak-soon, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.

“文在寅應該受到贊揚，他通過與朝鮮展開對話，大大降低了朝鮮半島爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭的風險，”世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究員白鶴淳(Paik Hak-soon)說。

“He has managed to find common interest between the two Koreas . . . He also understands the US dilemma in tackling North Korea’s nuclear and missile problems. It is almost impossible for [US President] Trump to stop North Korea’s missile development without opening dialogue.” he adds.

他補充道：“他找到了朝韓兩國的共同利益……他還理解美國在應對朝鮮核及導彈問題上的困境。不展開對話，(美國總統(tǒng))特朗普(Trump)要阻止朝鮮的導彈研發(fā)計劃幾乎是不可能的。”

The challenge now for the South Korean leader will be to successfully hand the baton over to Mr Trump to pursue negotiations with Pyongyang over its weapons programmes.

現在，文在寅面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是能否成功地把接力棒交給特朗普，讓美國就朝鮮的武器項目與朝鮮展開談判。

“If [Moon] orchestrated things in the driver’s seat so far, now he needs to manage and co-ordinate things from the back seat,” says Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

“如果說，到目前為止(文在寅)是坐在司機的位置上安排事情，現在他需要從后排座位上處理和協(xié)調事情，”韓國統(tǒng)一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)研究員Chung Sung-yoon說。

“It requires a different sort of leadership as a mediator and he may face some limits in this new role.”

“作為調停者需要具備一種不同的領導力，擔當這個新角色，他可能面臨一些限制。”

Since he was elected almost a year ago, the South Korean leader has had to walk a fine line.

當選總統(tǒng)近一年來，這位韓國領導人一直不得不小心謹慎地維持一種平衡。

A long-time advocate of engagement, he has attempted to build bridges with the Kim Jong Un regime while maintaining policy cohesion with the US — a key ally that has sought to isolate and economically punish Pyongyang for its development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.

長期以來一直支持采取接觸策略的文在寅試圖與金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權建立起橋梁，同時維持與美國的政策統(tǒng)一性——美國是韓國的關鍵盟友，而美國一直尋求孤立和從經濟上懲罰發(fā)展彈道導彈和核武器的朝鮮。

The challenge was magnified last month after Mr Moon invited a North Korean delegation to participate in the Winter Olympics Games in South Korea.

上月，在文在寅邀請朝鮮代表團參加在韓國舉行的冬季奧運會(Winter Olympics Games)之后，這一挑戰(zhàn)變得更為艱巨。

For observers, the invitation risked alienating Mr Moon not only from South Korean voters but also the hawkish political establishment in Washington.

觀察人士認為，文在寅發(fā)出這一邀請，不僅可能與韓國選民疏遠，還有可能與華盛頓政界中的鷹派疏遠。

But the move appears to be paying dividends, with an exultant Mr Kim on Monday telling officials from Seoul that his regime was willing to consider denuclearisation and would stop weapons testing during talks.

但此舉似乎正在帶來回報，周一，金正恩十分高興地告訴首爾來使，他的政權愿意考慮無核化，并將在對話期間停止武器試驗。

North Korea regularly reneges on its promises and negotiations with Pyongyang have often proved futile. But the overtures have nonetheless been hailed as a breakthrough on a peninsula that months ago appeared on the brink of war.

朝鮮經常違背許下的諾言，與平壤方面的磋商常被證明是徒勞的。但金正恩的提議還是被稱頌為半島局勢的突破性進展，畢竟數月前朝鮮半島看似將要滑向戰(zhàn)爭邊緣。

For observers, the developments are a result of Mr Moon’s step-by-step diplomacy; in particular, his insistence that denuclearisation be on table before agreeing to a mooted inter-Korean summit next month.

觀察人士認為，這些發(fā)展是文在寅循序漸進的外交斡旋促成的;尤其是，他堅持無核化要在討論范圍內，然后才同意下月舉行朝韓峰會的提議。

That apparent concession by Pyongyang was essential to ensuring the support and inclusion of Washington in future dialogue.

朝鮮貌似作出了讓步，這一點很重要，有利于確保華盛頓支持和加入未來的對話。

“[Moon] was wise not to immediately accept Pyongyang’s offer of an inter-Korean summit, instead talking about the right atmosphere and conditions. This was done mindful of the US stance on the talks,” says Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“(文在寅)沒有立即接受朝方關于舉行朝韓峰會的提議，而是討論起舉行峰會所需的正確氣氛和條件，這是明智之舉。這是考慮到美國在對話上的立場而做出的舉動，”首爾朝鮮研究大學(University of North Korean Studies)的楊武仁教授(Yang Moo-jin)說。

“It is impressive progress that he has managed to extend inter-Korean talks to US-North Korea talks,” he adds.

“他設法把朝韓對話擴大為美朝對話，這是一個了不起的進展，”他補充道。

Seoul’s subtle diplomacy was also evident from the decision to move the inter-Korean summit between Mr Kim and Mr Moon from Pyongyang to the demilitarised zone between the two countries.

雙方決定將金正恩和文在寅的峰會舉行地點從平壤轉到兩國之間的非軍事區(qū)，凸顯出首爾巧妙外交手段的作用。

This effectively denies Mr Kim the financial and propaganda spoils of hosting a high-profile summit within his borders.

這可有效防止金正恩獲得在朝鮮國境內舉行這場舉世矚目的峰會將帶來的金錢利益和宣傳效果。

“Holding the summit at the DMZ is also a smart move because it paves the way for making it a regular event. It is not likely to end up being a one-time thing,” says Prof Yang.

“在朝韓之間非軍事區(qū)舉行峰會也是聰明的一步，因為這為峰會走向常態(tài)化鋪平了道路。峰會不太可能只是舉行一次就作罷，”楊武仁教授說。

If held as planned in April, it would only be the third time the leaders of North and South Korea will have met.

如果這次峰會照計劃在4月舉行，那將是朝韓領導人的第三次會面。

The public also appears to be backing the South Korea’s president efforts. After a wobble during the Olympics, his approval ratings have rebounded as dialogue with Pyongyang has progressed. A recent poll gave him a 66.5 per cent approval rating.

公眾似乎也支持韓國總統(tǒng)的努力。文在寅的支持率在冬奧會期間有所搖擺，但隨著朝韓對話取得進展，他的支持率又回升了。最近的一次民意調查中，文在寅的支持率為66.5%。

Lee Jung-hyun, a finance professional in Seoul, says he is happy to see South Korea take a leading role in solving the North Korean situation.

首爾的金融專業(yè)人士Lee Jung-hyun說，他很高興地看到韓國在應對朝鮮局勢上發(fā)揮主導作用。

“I still have lingering doubts about the North’s sincerity about denuclearisation. But at least we are starting to see positive signals. I can give that credit to President Moon Jae-in,” he says.

“我依然對朝鮮無核化的誠意心存疑慮。但至少我們開始看到積極的信號。我認為這歸功于文在寅總統(tǒng)，”他說。

But analysts warn the next steps are likely to prove more treacherous.

但分析人士警告，接下來的局勢可能更加變幻莫測。

“From now on, things will be driven by the US, and Washington may not do things that Mr Moon likes,” says Mr Chung.

“從現在開始，事情將由美國推動，而華盛頓的所作所為可能不會如文在寅所愿，”韓國統(tǒng)一研究院研究員Chung Sung-yoon說。

“The most important thing to watch is how he will handle South Korea’s relations with the US and North Korea when there is no visible progress in the denuclearisation front.”

“最重要的有待觀察的事情是，如果無核化方面未能取得明顯進展，他將如何處理韓國與美國和與朝鮮的關系。”

Additional reporting by Kang Buseong Kang Buseong補充報道