所屬教程:雙語閱讀

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2018年03月18日

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The US economy is by many measures in its rudest health since well before the financial crisis, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said as he reiterated the central bank’s intentions to gradually increase short-term interest rates.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)一名高層政策制定者表示，從很多方面衡量，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)處于自金融危機(jī)之前很久以來最健康的狀態(tài)。他重申了美國央行有意逐步提高短期利率。

Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice-chairman for financial supervision, told a conference in Tokyo that growth has been showing more momentum since the second quarter of last year, and that unemployment is at its lowest levels since the 1960s apart from a brief period from 1999 to 2000.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)負(fù)責(zé)金融監(jiān)管的副主席蘭德爾•夸爾斯(Randal Quarles，見文首照片)在東京的一個(gè)會(huì)議上表示，自去年第二季度以來，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長顯示出更強(qiáng)勢(shì)頭，而失業(yè)率處于自上世紀(jì)60年代以來最低水平——除了從1999年到2000年的一段短暫時(shí)期以外。

“Against this economic backdrop, with a strong labour market and likely only temporary softness in inflation, I view it as appropriate that monetary policy should continue to be gradually normalised,” Mr Quarles said.

“在這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)大背景下，考慮到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁，而通脹很可能只是暫時(shí)疲軟，我認(rèn)為貨幣政策繼續(xù)逐步正?；沁m當(dāng)?shù)模?rdquo;夸爾斯表示。

The Fed has been signalling an increased determination to lift short-term rates, with officials in their January meeting emphasising the need to “further” tighten policy. While the arrival of Jay Powell, the new Fed chairman, coincided with an outbreak of volatility in financial markets, central bankers have suggested the gyrations have not derailed their plans for higher rates.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)近來發(fā)出的信號(hào)表明，其越來越有決心提高短期利率，官員們?cè)?月會(huì)議上強(qiáng)調(diào)需要“進(jìn)一步”收緊政策。雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)新主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)上任之際適逢金融市場(chǎng)陷入一輪波動(dòng)，但央行官員們表示，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)并未影響他們的加息計(jì)劃。

One of the reasons for more increases is the added fiscal stimulus being injected into an economy that is already at full employment. In their latest rate-setting meeting at the end of January a number of Fed policymakers said that the effects of Congress’s $1.5tn tax-cutting package, while still uncertain, “might be somewhat larger in the near term than previously thought”.

進(jìn)一步加息的理由之一是新增的財(cái)政刺激正在注入本已處于充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。在1月底舉行的上一次利率制定會(huì)議上，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)多名政策制定者表示，國會(huì)的1.5萬億美元減稅計(jì)劃的影響盡管仍不確定，但“在近期產(chǎn)生的影響可能比之前想象的要大一些”。

Extra public spending is set to add to the stimulus, potentially driving annual budget deficits beyond $1tn as soon as next year. After the Fed’s January meeting Congress agreed to lift caps on discretionary spending by $300bn over two years.

額外的公共支出將加大刺激力度，可能使年度預(yù)算赤字最早在明年就超過1萬億美元。在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)1月會(huì)議后，美國國會(huì)同意在未來兩年將可自由支配支出的上限提高3000億美元。

Mr Quarles said that corporate spending was picking up and the tax reductions pushed through by Congress in December could add to the economy’s momentum. “It might be early, but it is possible that the investment drought that has afflicted the US economy for the past five years may finally be breaking,” said Mr Quarles in his speech.

夸爾斯表示，企業(yè)支出正在增加，而去年12月國會(huì)推動(dòng)通過的減稅措施有望增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭。“也許現(xiàn)在說這話有點(diǎn)早，但過去五年來困擾美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的投資‘旱季’可能終于即將結(jié)束，”夸爾斯在發(fā)言中表示。

“The tax and fiscal packages passed in recent months could help sustain the economy’s momentum in part by increasing demand, and also possibly by boosting the potential capacity of the economy by encouraging investment and supporting labour force participation.”

“最近幾個(gè)月通過的稅收和財(cái)政措施可能有助于維持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢(shì)頭——在一定程度上是通過增加需求，還可能通過鼓勵(lì)投資和促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力參與來提振經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在生產(chǎn)力。”

The more bullish assessments emerging from Fed officials will trigger speculation about its assessment of the level of the so-called neutral rate of interest — that is, the rate that neither stimulates the economy nor holds it back.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員們發(fā)表更為樂觀的評(píng)估將引發(fā)外界猜測(cè)：他們對(duì)于所謂的中性利率水平(既不會(huì)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)也不會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)的利率)的評(píng)估會(huì)有什么變化?

In recent years the Fed has been pulling down its estimate of longer-run interest rate because it has become increasingly pessimistic about the economy’s potential. The median estimate in the Fed’s December forecast was for a longer-run interest rate of 2.8 per cent. Two years earlier its estimate was 3.5 per cent.

近年來，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不斷降低其對(duì)較長期利率的估測(cè)，因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛力越來越悲觀。在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)去年12月的預(yù)測(cè)中，對(duì)較長期利率作出的中位數(shù)估測(cè)是2.8%，而兩年之前的估測(cè)是3.5%。

But in an interview with the Financial Times in January, Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, argued that if the overhang from the financial crisis was easing it should lead to a higher neutral rate. Asked if that is already higher than people had been assuming, he said “it certainly could be” given stimulative fiscal policy and financial markets.

但紐約聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(New York Fed)主席比爾•達(dá)德利(Bill Dudley)在1月份接受英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)提出，如果金融危機(jī)帶來的后遺癥緩解了，那應(yīng)該導(dǎo)致更高的中性利率。在被問及這個(gè)數(shù)字是否已經(jīng)高于人們假設(shè)的水平時(shí)，他表示，考慮到刺激性的財(cái)政政策和金融市場(chǎng)狀況，“肯定有這個(gè)可能”。

While Mr Quarles was relatively upbeat about the broad prospects for the US economy, he was more cautious about productivity, which helps drive a sustainable growth rate. “Why productivity growth has been so weak defies easy explanation. The weak pace of business investment is likely part of the story,” he said.

雖然夸爾斯對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體前景相對(duì)樂觀，但他在談到生產(chǎn)率時(shí)態(tài)度更為謹(jǐn)慎，生產(chǎn)率增長將有助于推動(dòng)可持續(xù)增長率。“為什么生產(chǎn)率增長如此疲弱，這個(gè)問題不容易解釋。商業(yè)投資疲弱很可能是故事的一部分，”他表示。