中國(guó)私營(yíng)企業(yè)集團(tuán)的不同命運(yùn)

The Chinese government’s takeover of Anbang Insurance and criminal prosecution of founder Wu Xiaohui marks the biggest step yet in an official crackdown on risky financing by ambitious conglomerates that has prompted a severe decline in China’s overseas dealmaking.

中國(guó)政府接管安邦保險(xiǎn)(Anbang Insurance)并對(duì)其創(chuàng)始人吳小暉提起刑事訴訟，這表示了迄今為止官方打擊雄心勃勃的大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融資的最大舉措。這些舉措導(dǎo)致中國(guó)海外并購(gòu)大幅下滑。

But on the same day as the Anbang seizure was announced, Chinese company Fosun said it would buy a controlling stake in Lanvin, France’s oldest couturier. The move underlines the diverging fates of the four largest private conglomerates — the others are HNA and Dalian Wanda — that Beijing identified last year as borrowing too aggressively to fund offshore deals.

但就在政府宣布接管安邦的同一天，中國(guó)公司復(fù)星(Fosun)表示將收購(gòu)法國(guó)最古老的女裝設(shè)計(jì)品牌Lanvin的控股權(quán)。此舉突顯了北京方面去年認(rèn)為過(guò)于激進(jìn)地為海外并購(gòu)舉債的四大私營(yíng)企業(yè)集團(tuán)(其他兩家是海航(HNA)和大連萬(wàn)達(dá)(Dalian Wanda))截然不同的命運(yùn)。

All have captured headlines over the past few years with a series of audacious foreign acquisitions. These include Anbang’s $2bn purchase of New York’s Waldorf Astoria, Dalian Wanda’s takeover of Hollywood studio Legendary Entertainment for $3.5bn, and HNA’s $40bn splurge on stakes in companies including Deutsche Bank and Hilton Worldwide.

在過(guò)去幾年中，這四家公司全都因?yàn)橐幌盗写竽懙暮Ｍ獠①?gòu)交易登上了新聞?lì)^條。其中包括安邦斥資20億美元收購(gòu)紐約華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)、大連萬(wàn)達(dá)以35億美元收購(gòu)好萊塢傳奇影業(yè)(Legendary Entertainment)，以及海航豪擲400億美元收購(gòu)了德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)和希爾頓全球(Hilton Worldwide)等公司的股份。

Beijing stepped in last year to curb the spree, worried that companies were overpaying for foreign assets and draining China’s foreign currency reserves, while relying on risky financing methods to fund acquisitions.

去年，北京為了遏制這種狂熱行為而出手干預(yù)，擔(dān)心這些企業(yè)為外國(guó)資產(chǎn)出價(jià)過(guò)高并使得中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備流失，同時(shí)還依靠高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融資方式為收購(gòu)提供資金。

Analysts say the government’s treatment of the groups differs depending on their sources of financing, and whether they have co-operated in the government’s campaign to slow capital outflows and cut leverage.

分析師表示，中國(guó)政府依照這些集團(tuán)的融資來(lái)源，以及是否配合政府減緩資本外流和削減杠桿的運(yùn)動(dòng)來(lái)區(qū)別對(duì)待。

“Conglomerates have been borrowing from Chinese banks and making overseas deals and doing deals which do not [create] much benefit for the regime. If things go wrong, the risk is with state-owned banks,” said Ether Yin of consultancy Trivium China.

北京咨詢公司Trivium China的Ether Yin表示：“大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)一直在向中國(guó)的銀行借錢(qián)進(jìn)行海外并購(gòu)，而且在進(jìn)行不會(huì)為中國(guó)政府帶來(lái)多少利益的交易。如果事情出錯(cuò)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)由國(guó)有銀行承擔(dān)。”

China’s overseas investment dropped 35 per cent last year to $137bn compared with $204bn in 2016, partly due to tighter restrictions on capital outflows, according to MergerMarket.

MergerMarket的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)海外投資去年下降近35%至1370億美元，而2016年為2040億美元，部分原因是中國(guó)收緊了限制資本外流的措施。

Wanda has co-operated with official directives by unloading more than $4bn in overseas assets over the past nine months and promising to “refocus” on the domestic economy. Last week it sold its 17 per cent stake in Spanish football club Atlético Madrid.

萬(wàn)達(dá)配合官方指令，在過(guò)去9個(gè)月賣(mài)掉了40多億美元的海外資產(chǎn)，并承諾“將注意力重新集中到”國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。上周，它賣(mài)掉了西班牙足球俱樂(lè)部馬德里競(jìng)技俱樂(lè)部(Atlético Madrid) 17%的股份。

HNA, meanwhile, has appeared to win back support as it regroups amid a liquidity crunch. Last week, the debt-laden company announced the HK$15.8bn ($2bn) sale of two plots of land in Hong Kong to local developer Henderson Land.

與此同時(shí)，海航在因流動(dòng)性危機(jī)重組后似乎重新贏得了支持。上周，這家負(fù)債累累的公司宣布以158億港元(合20億美元)的價(jià)格將香港的兩宗土地出售給當(dāng)?shù)亻_(kāi)發(fā)商恒基兆業(yè)地產(chǎn)(Henderson Land)。

It was Anbang’s financing model that caused the Chinese authorities most concern. Unlike other groups that relied on bank loans or bond issuances to fund acquisitions, Anbang relied on sales of investment-like products it sold to wealthy Chinese retail investors labelled as life insurance, a part of China’s sprawling shadow-banking system.

安邦的融資模式讓中國(guó)政府最為擔(dān)憂。與其他依靠銀行貸款或發(fā)行債券為收購(gòu)提供資金的集團(tuán)不同，安邦依賴的是以人壽保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的名義向富裕的中國(guó)散戶投資者銷(xiāo)售類(lèi)投資產(chǎn)品，這是中國(guó)龐大的影子銀行體系的一部分。

The insurance regulator banned Anbang from selling several risky investment-like products early last year, shortly before authorities detained Mr Wu, amid a broad crackdown on shadow banking.

去年初，就在吳小暉被當(dāng)局帶走前不久，保監(jiān)會(huì)禁止安邦出售數(shù)款高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類(lèi)投資產(chǎn)品，并全面打擊影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)。

Several investment products offering high returns went bust in recent years, on some occasions sparking street protests by disgruntled investors. Taking over Anbang reflects “the government’s need to protect individual investors for the sake of social stability,” said Mr Yin.

一些承諾高回報(bào)的投資產(chǎn)品在近幾年崩盤(pán)，有時(shí)還引發(fā)不滿的投資者上街抗議。Ether Yin說(shuō)，接管安邦反映“政府為了社會(huì)穩(wěn)定需要保護(hù)個(gè)人投資者”。

Anbang “clearly violated regulatory requirements, but that’s not as clear for the other [conglomerates],” said Zhu Ning of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

清華大學(xué)國(guó)家金融研究院(National Institute of Financial Research)的朱寧表示，安邦“顯然違反了監(jiān)管規(guī)定，但對(duì)于其他的(企業(yè)集團(tuán))這一點(diǎn)并不那么明顯”。

Anbang’s finances were also in a more precarious state than other companies due to the mismatch between the short-term nature of its assets and the longer-term nature of its liabilities. The company’s reliance on high-yield products was signalled when the insurance regulator allowed it to begin reselling them in October, analysts say.

此外，由于資產(chǎn)短期性以及負(fù)債較長(zhǎng)期性的錯(cuò)配，與其他企業(yè)相比，安邦的財(cái)務(wù)狀況也更加不穩(wěn)定。分析人士表示，去年10月，在保監(jiān)會(huì)允許安邦開(kāi)始恢復(fù)銷(xiāo)售高收益投資產(chǎn)品時(shí)，安邦對(duì)這些產(chǎn)品的依賴就體現(xiàn)了出來(lái)。

"Anbang was the most aggressive in terms of the ratio of its overseas assets to its domestic assets and it had a more serious mismatch between its funding sources and its acquisitions. In other words, it represented more speculation that the renminbi would fall," said Mr Zhu.

朱寧表示：“從海外資產(chǎn)與國(guó)內(nèi)資產(chǎn)的比率來(lái)看，安邦是最激進(jìn)的，其融資來(lái)源與并購(gòu)之間存在更嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)配。換句話說(shuō)，這代表著對(duì)人民幣將貶值的更大投機(jī)。”

HNA is also under acute pressure. The group, which started as an airline company before expanding into finance, is the most acquisitive of all the groups and has been facing a liquidity crunch, forcing it to tap riskier sources of funding.

海航也面臨巨大壓力。該集團(tuán)最初是一家航空公司，后來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)大到金融，是四家集團(tuán)中收購(gòu)胃口最大的，一直面臨流動(dòng)性緊張，這迫使其利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的融資來(lái)源。

The company, whose ownership has been called into question by foreign regulators, has been attempting to convert political capital into financial capital, with its co-chairman Wang Jian calling the company’s critics part of a conspiracy to undermine China, according to speech leaked online.

外國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)海航所有權(quán)提出質(zhì)疑。海航一直試圖將政治資本轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榻鹑谫Y本，根據(jù)網(wǎng)上流出的言論，海航聯(lián)合董事長(zhǎng)王健把批評(píng)該公司的人稱(chēng)為破壞中國(guó)的陰謀的一部分。

The efforts appear to have paid off, with state-controlled Citic bank granting a $3.2bn credit line to the company this month.

這些努力似乎收到了成效，國(guó)有控股的中信銀行(Citic)本月向海航授信32億美元。

Still, the company is facing questions about its shareholders. “When you’re dealing with Chinese companies you’ve got to be aware that the risk of it failing is high because of the potential political pressures, so due diligence should remain high,” said Fraser Howie, an expert on Chinese financial regulation.

然而，海航正面臨有關(guān)其股東的質(zhì)疑。中國(guó)金融監(jiān)管專(zhuān)家侯偉(Fraser Howie)表示：“如果你與中國(guó)企業(yè)打交道，你應(yīng)該知道，由于潛在的政治壓力，失敗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很高，因此盡職調(diào)查應(yīng)非常完善。”

Fosun, which owns property and insurance assets, has slowed the pace of its acquisitions in the past year. A high-profile deal for a stake in Russian gold miner Polyus fell through, but in October it completed an approximately $1bn deal for a controlling stake in India’s Gland Pharma and an $868m purchase of stake in China’s Tsingtao brewery.

過(guò)去一年，擁有房地產(chǎn)和保險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的復(fù)星放慢了并購(gòu)速度。該集團(tuán)入股俄羅斯黃金礦商Polyus的高調(diào)交易流產(chǎn)，但去年10月，復(fù)星完成了控股印度制藥商Gland Pharma的約10億美元交易，并以8.68億美元入股中國(guó)青島啤酒(Tsingtao)。

The Shanghai-based company has taken steps to lower its leverage and position its investments as contributing to government efforts to make China’s economy more high-tech and consumption-driven.

這家總部位于上海的公司已采取措施降低杠桿，并把其投資定位為助力中國(guó)政府讓中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)更多由高科技和消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)的努力。

Chinese groups have been helped by a decline in worries about China’s currency, which has strengthened over the past year while China’s foreign exchange reserves have grown for 12 straight months. “That panic has abated,” said Mr Howie.

對(duì)人民幣的擔(dān)憂減輕讓中國(guó)企業(yè)受益，過(guò)去一年，人民幣匯率走強(qiáng)，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備連續(xù)12個(gè)月增長(zhǎng)。侯偉表示：“恐慌減輕了。”

“The issue is how the deals are funded, and whether they fit into state aims and can be said to be benefiting the country,” he added. “Doing east London real estate deals doesn’t seem to benefit China Inc. It's about how well-funded they are and the price they were paying.”

“問(wèn)題是這些交易如何融資，以及它們是否符合政府目標(biāo)并可以說(shuō)有利于這個(gè)國(guó)家，”他補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，“收購(gòu)倫敦東部的房地產(chǎn)似乎并不有利于中國(guó)企業(yè)界。這關(guān)乎他們的資金實(shí)力有多雄厚以及他們付出的價(jià)格。”