歐洲銀行家不認(rèn)為美中會(huì)爆發(fā)全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)

European bank bosses have warned that Donald Trump’s “America-first” approach risks creating a more fragmented global economy, while predicting that it is unlikely to trigger an all-out trade war between the US and China.

歐洲各大銀行掌門人警告稱，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”政策可能會(huì)造成更支離破碎的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，但他們預(yù)測(cè)它不太可能引發(fā)美中全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

The heads of some of Europe’s biggest lenders told the Financial Times at the World Economic Forum on the day of Mr Trump’s arrival that the consequences of a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies would be so dire they did not believe it would happen.

在特朗普抵達(dá)達(dá)沃斯當(dāng)天，歐洲部分大型銀行的負(fù)責(zé)人在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)上向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)表示，世界兩個(gè)最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間針鋒相對(duì)的關(guān)稅升級(jí)將帶來非?？膳碌暮蠊麄儾徽J(rèn)為這會(huì)發(fā)生。

This week the US imposed tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines and senior Trump administration officials warned that Washington was preparing to intensify its measures to prevent what it views as unfair trading practices around the world.

本周美國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口太陽能電池和洗衣機(jī)征收關(guān)稅，特朗普政府高級(jí)官員警告說，華盛頓正準(zhǔn)備加強(qiáng)措施，以阻止世界各地被其視為不公平的貿(mào)易行為。

“You have to be concerned. But do I think there’s going to be a bad outcome? No,” Bill Winters, chief executive of Standard Chartered, said in Davos.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)首席執(zhí)行官比爾•溫特斯(Bill Winters)在達(dá)沃斯上稱：“你不得不擔(dān)心。但我是否認(rèn)為會(huì)有糟糕的結(jié)果呢?否。”

“The US appears to be taking a measured approach and I would expect the Chinese to take a measured approach in response,” said the US-born boss of London-listed StanChart, which earns most of its revenue in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

倫敦上市的渣打銀行的這位在美國(guó)出生的掌門人表示：“美國(guó)似乎采取了謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度，我預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)也會(huì)相應(yīng)采取慎重立場(chǎng)。”渣打大多數(shù)收入來自亞洲、非洲和中東。

“It is not in the US interest, it is not in China’s interest, it is maybe in some political interests in the US. But measured approaches seem to be as effective in supporting the base as more dramatic action,” he said, referring to Mr Trump’s blue-collar voter base.

“這不符合美國(guó)利益，也不符合中國(guó)利益，可能符合美國(guó)一部分政治利益。但是在為基礎(chǔ)選民提供幫助方面，謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度似乎與更激進(jìn)的舉動(dòng)同樣有效，”他表示，言下所指的是特朗普的藍(lán)領(lǐng)基礎(chǔ)選民。

There is particular concern about the risk of a trade war with China, since it could have wide economic consequences and complicate separate US measures conducted with China to tackle North Korea’s missile and nuclear programme.

眼下，外界對(duì)于美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)格外關(guān)注，因?yàn)樗赡軒韽V泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果，并使得美國(guó)與中國(guó)共同采取的應(yīng)對(duì)朝鮮導(dǎo)彈和核計(jì)劃問題的單獨(dú)措施更加復(fù)雜。

Ralph Hamers, chief executive of ING, the Dutch bank, said: “I see a further polarisation of the world economy. I can see some areas that really continue free trade and others that don’t, like the US and frankly the UK, at least until Brexit happens.

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)首席執(zhí)行官拉爾夫•哈默斯(Ralph Hamers)表示：“我發(fā)現(xiàn)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)兩極化正進(jìn)一步加深。我可以看到部分地區(qū)確實(shí)在繼續(xù)實(shí)行自由貿(mào)易，而有些地區(qū)不是這樣，比如美國(guó)，老實(shí)說，還有英國(guó)，至少在英國(guó)退歐發(fā)生前。”

“Trump will impact [trade] volumes, but it’s beyond Trump,” said Mr Hamers, pointing to the difficult negotiations between the UK and EU over a post-Brexit trade deal as another area where more trade barriers could be erected.

“特朗普將影響(貿(mào)易)總額，但影響貿(mào)易的不只是特朗普，”哈默斯表示，他指的是英國(guó)和歐盟之間就退歐后的貿(mào)易協(xié)議進(jìn)行的艱苦談判，將成為另一個(gè)可能設(shè)置更多貿(mào)易壁壘的領(lǐng)域。

The downbeat comments by the European bankers, who were due to meet Mr Trump at a dinner in Davos on Thursday evening ahead of the US president’s speech on Friday, contrasts with the more supportive remarks by their US peers, such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase.

歐洲銀行家的悲觀評(píng)論，與其美國(guó)同行——比如摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)——的積極言論形成對(duì)比。這些歐洲銀行家周四晚上會(huì)在達(dá)沃斯晚宴上見到特朗普，后者將于周五發(fā)表演講。

“When Americans speak and they talk about fair, they mean reciprocal,” Mr Dimon told CNBC. “That’s not what the Chinese mean by fair.”

“當(dāng)美國(guó)人講話并說起公平時(shí)，他們指的是互惠，”戴蒙向CNBC表示，“這不是中國(guó)人所說的公平的意思。”

The Trump administration faces deadlines for presidential action in the weeks ahead on national security investigations into imports of aluminium and steel and a wide-ranging probe of China’s intellectual property regime that many in Washington expect to lead to further tariffs and a crackdown on Chinese investment.

未來幾周，特朗普政府將面臨就兩項(xiàng)調(diào)查做出總統(tǒng)決定的最后期限，一是對(duì)進(jìn)口鋁和鋼鐵進(jìn)行的國(guó)家安全調(diào)查，二是對(duì)中國(guó)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)制度進(jìn)行的廣泛調(diào)查。華盛頓很多人認(rèn)為調(diào)查將導(dǎo)致更多關(guān)稅和對(duì)中國(guó)投資的打壓。

“I don’t think it will end up in a trade war because there are no gainers and it goes against progress,” said Francisco González, chairman of BBVA of Spain, which has large operations in Mexico and Turkey. The fact that Mr Trump was in Davos was a “positive signal”.

“我不認(rèn)為會(huì)以貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)告終，因?yàn)檫@將導(dǎo)致兩敗俱傷的結(jié)局，并且是退步，”西班牙對(duì)外銀行(BBVA)董事長(zhǎng)弗朗西斯科•岡薩雷斯(Francisco González)表示。該銀行在墨西哥和土耳其有大量業(yè)務(wù)。特朗普現(xiàn)身達(dá)沃斯本身是一個(gè)“積極信號(hào)”。

Looking for a silver lining, Mr Winters said: “We’ll see if there is a tit-for-tat, [but] what are the Chinese going to tat on the back of the US tit?

尋找一線希望的溫特斯表示：“我們將關(guān)注是否存在針鋒相對(duì)的情況，(但是)對(duì)于美國(guó)的劍拔弩張，中國(guó)將如何以牙還牙呢?”

“It is possible that they target American banks, it is also possible that they target American defence companies, or electronics companies or consumer goods companies. If they target American banks, on the margin that’s helpful for us. But that’s not a good thing.”

“他們可能會(huì)瞄準(zhǔn)美國(guó)銀行業(yè)，也有可能瞄準(zhǔn)美國(guó)軍工企業(yè)、電子公司或消費(fèi)品公司。如果他們瞄準(zhǔn)美國(guó)銀行業(yè)，結(jié)果將有利于我們。但這不是一件好事。”

This week, the 11 remaining members of a trans-Pacific trade deal that the US rejected, including Japan, Canada and Australia, solved their differences and said they aimed to sign an agreement in March. Mr Winters said: “Asia is coming together and Asean is coming together, but America is breaking up.”

本周，包括日本、加拿大和澳大利亞在內(nèi)的《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(TPP)在美國(guó)退出后余下的11個(gè)國(guó)家解決了分歧，并表示將于3月簽署協(xié)議。溫特斯表示：“亞洲將團(tuán)結(jié)在一起，東盟(Asean)也將團(tuán)結(jié)在一起，但美國(guó)就像一盤散沙。”