美國國債拋售加劇

The US bond market has suffered a fierce sell-off as investors fret that central banks will move more aggressively than anticipated to end their crisis-era economic stimulus programmes, with some high-profile debt investors declaring a new era for fixed income.

美國債券市場遭遇一輪激烈拋售，投資者擔心各大央行將比預期更激進地終結危機時期的經(jīng)濟刺激計劃，一些知名的債務投資者宣告固定收益產(chǎn)品進入一個新時代。

The yield of 10-year Treasuries on Wednesday approached levels not seen since the “Trumpflation” retreat nearly a year ago, hitting a nine-month high of nearly 2.6 per cent on expectations cash freed up by the recent US tax cut will finally help spark higher inflation driven by stonger economic growth.

10年期美國國債的收益率周三逼近自近一年前“特朗普通脹”(Trumpflation)消退以來未見的水平，達到近2.6%的9個月高點，原因是市場預期近期美國減稅所釋放的資金，加上更強勁的經(jīng)濟增長，將終于幫助推高通脹。

An eagerly anticipated auction of 10-year US Treasuries later produced the highest ratio of demand since 2016, underscoring how higher yields can entice investors back into the nond market. That helped trim the yield rise to 2.57 per cent by early afternoon.

市場殷切期待的一場10年期美國國債拍賣，后來產(chǎn)生了自2016年以來最高的需求比例，突顯高收益率如何能吸引投資者重返債券市場。這幫助收益率在午后收窄升幅，至2.57%。

The global government bond market has started 2018 on the back foot, and yields rose sharply on Tuesday after data showed the Bank of Japan slowed some of its long-dated bond purchases. That stoked speculation that the Bank of Japan would join the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve in scaling back stimulus programmes this year.

全球政府債券市場在2018年開局不利，周二收益率大幅上升，因為數(shù)據(jù)顯示，日本央行(Bank of Japan)放緩了一部分長期債券購買操作。這引發(fā)人們猜測日本央行今年將加入歐洲央行(ECB)和美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的行列，開始縮減刺激計劃。

The sell-off deepened on Wednesday amid market speculation that Chinese authorities viewed US government bonds as less attractive. The sense that the three-decade bond bull market was coming to a close was reinforced by Bill Gross, the so-called bond king, who publicly declared he had shorted US Treasuries.

周三拋售加劇，其背景是市場揣測中國當局認為美國政府債券吸引力下降。有“債券之王”之稱的比爾•格羅斯(Bill Gross)強化了持續(xù)30年的債券牛市即將結束的感覺，他公開宣告已開始賣空美國國債。

Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital who is viewed as Mr Gross’s rival and is a closely followed bond investor, lent his weight to the bearish sentiment, saying central bank policy was shifting to an “era of quantitative tightening”.

Doubleline Capital創(chuàng)始人杰弗里•岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)是另一位受到緊密追隨的債券投資者，被視為格羅斯的競爭對手。他表態(tài)贊同看空情緒，稱央行政策正在轉向“量化收緊時代”。

While the Japanese central bank’s trimming of long-dated bond purchases was not announced as an official change of policy, it was enough to reinforce the sense 2018 will become a turning point in the post-crisis era of ultra-stimulative monetary policy.

盡管日本央行縮減長期債券購買并未被宣布為正式的政策轉變，但此舉足以強化市場的感覺，即2018年將成為后危機時期超級刺激性貨幣政策的轉折點。

The yield on 10-year German Bunds has climbed to a six-month high of 0.54 per cent; January marks the start of the ECB’s halving of its bond purchases to €30bn every month. Even the Japanese 10-year government bond yield — which is still subject to the central bank’s “yield curve control” that aims to keep it at zero — has risen to 0.08 per cent this week, the highest since July.

德國10年期國債收益率攀升至0.54%的6個月新高;1月標志著歐洲央行開始將債券購買量減半，至每月300億歐元。就連日本10年期國債收益率——仍受制于央行“收益率曲線控制”，目標是將其維持在零——本周也升至0.08%，為去年7月以來的最高水平。

As a result of the sell-off, the biggest fixed-income exchange traded fund, the $53bn iShares fund trading under the symbol AGG, has lost 0.5 per cent this week to trade at an eight-month low on Wednesday.

此輪拋售的結果是，最大的固定收益交易所交易基金(ETF)、代碼為AGG的530億美元iShares基金本周縮水0.5%，周三跌至8個月低點。

Even before the Donald Trump-backed tax cut, the world’s most important central banks had been slowly bringing an end to the emergency stimulus measures as the economic recovery in Europe and the US gained steam.

即使在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)支持的減稅出臺之前，隨著歐洲和美國的經(jīng)濟復蘇形成勢頭，世界各大央行已經(jīng)在慢慢結束緊急時期的刺激措施。

Economists have remained bemused by the lack of price and wage increases despite the tightening job market on both sides of the Atlantic, but many now believe the US tax cut will provide the boost needed to trigger inflation — which could force central banks to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively.

經(jīng)濟學家們迄今感到困惑的一點是，盡管大西洋兩岸的就業(yè)市場均不斷收緊，但價格和工資缺乏上漲勢頭，但很多人現(xiàn)在相信，美國的減稅政策將提供觸發(fā)通脹所需的推動——這可能迫使各大央行以更大力度收緊貨幣政策。

The 10-year US “break-even” rate — a measure of inflation expectations derived by comparing the yields of inflation-proofed and conventional Treasury bonds — has this month climbed above the 2 per cent mark for the first time since March last year.

美國10年期盈虧平衡通脹率(衡量通脹預期的指標，通過比較通脹保值國債和傳統(tǒng)國債的收益率得出)本月自去年3月以來首次攀升至2%以上。

Not all investors are convinced that inflation is finally at hand. Oliver Jones of Capital Economics noted that factors such as a global savings glut and new technologies that allow companies to keep prices low would keep inflation in check.

并非所有投資者都相信通脹終于即將到來。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的奧利弗•瓊斯(Oliver Jones)指出，種種因素(比如全球儲蓄過剩和讓企業(yè)得以保持低價的新技術)將把通脹保持在低位。

“We think that investors are underestimating how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates this year. But we doubt that this would mark the start of a bloodbath in bond markets, even allowing for reduced support from central bankers and reserve managers outside the US,” Mr Jones said.

“我們認為投資者低估了美聯(lián)儲今年加息的速度會有多快。但我們不認為這標志著債券市場會遭遇一場血洗，即使考慮到美國以外的央行和儲備管理者縮減刺激計劃之后也是如此，”瓊斯表示。

Mr Gross, who earned the “bond king” nickname while chief investment officer at Pimco and is now a fund manager at Janus Henderson, wrote on Twitter: “Bond bear market confirmed today. 25-year long-term trend lines broken in 5yr and 10yr maturity Treasuries.”

在擔任太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)首席投資官期間贏得“債券之王”大名的格羅斯，如今是Janus Henderson的一名基金經(jīng)理。他在Twitter上寫道：“債券市場今天確認了。5年和10年期美國國債的25年長期趨勢線已被打破。”

Mr Gundlach warned that it would be a “big deal” if yields on the 10-year Treasury broke through 2.63 per cent — something that would breach a technical level and accelerate the sell-off, he predicted.

岡拉克警告稱，如果10年期美國國債收益率突破2.63%，那將是一件“大事”。他預測，那將突破一條技術阻力線，加快此輪拋售。