短線視點(diǎn)：中國資產(chǎn)證券化市場狂野生長

Asset-backed securities still suffer an image hangover in the west from the days of the 2008 financial crisis. But China’s issuance of the financial products is soaring this year as Beijing places a big bet on securitisation as a salve for its huge credit risks. Though only a few years old, the Chinese debt securitisation market — in which pools of debt like mortgages, auto loans and credit-card loans are repackaged and sold to investors — is growing like topsy. Issuance of securitised assets rose 61 per cent in the first half of this year and could climb to $170bn for the full year, according to research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

受2008年金融危機(jī)影響，資產(chǎn)支持證券(ABS)在西方仍不受待見。但今年以來，此類金融產(chǎn)品在中國的發(fā)行量大幅飆升——北京方面正大舉押注于證券化，把它作為緩解國內(nèi)巨大信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一個(gè)途徑。盡管形成僅幾年時(shí)間，中國的債務(wù)證券化市場——抵押貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡貸款等債務(wù)池被重新打包并出售給投資者——正如脫韁野馬般增長。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的研究顯示，今年上半年中國證券化資產(chǎn)的發(fā)行量同比增加61%，全年將攀升至1700億美元。

But are foreign investors ready to dive in? The answer appears to be a qualified yes. Given memories of how the US collateralised debt obligation (CDOs) market imploded 10 years ago, it is not surprising that foreign investors are cautious and generally avoid local issuers.

但外國投資者準(zhǔn)備好進(jìn)入中國這個(gè)市場了嗎?答案似乎不是百分百的肯定。鑒于人們對(duì)美國債務(wù)抵押債券(CDO)市場10年前的崩盤仍記憶猶新，外國投資者對(duì)本地發(fā)行方持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度并且大體上敬而遠(yuǎn)之也就不奇怪了。

Nevertheless, car loan asset-backed securities issued by well-known international companies such as Volkswagen, Ford Motor and others are proving popular, analysts said. “Right now in asset-based finance in China, the area that foreign bond investors want to look at is foreign car manufacturers doing financing for auto loans,” said Alexander Batchvarov, managing director at BofA in London. “Currently this is giving a 5 to 8 per cent yield in renminbi. This is not a yield you can get anywhere in European investment grade bonds.”

不過，分析師表示，大眾汽車(Volkswagen)、福特汽車(Ford Motor)等國際知名企業(yè)發(fā)行的汽車貸款資產(chǎn)支持證券(車貸ABS)被證明很受歡迎。“目前，在中國以資產(chǎn)為基礎(chǔ)的金融產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域，外國債券投資者感興趣的，是外國汽車制造商為汽車貸款所做的融資，”美銀美林駐倫敦董事總經(jīng)理亞歷山大•巴切瓦洛夫(Alexander Batchvarov)表示，“目前，其帶來的人民幣收益率為5%至8%。你購買歐洲哪一種投資級(jí)債券都得不到這樣的收益。”

Effectively, investors are putting their trust in the reputation of the US and European carmakers to ensure that due diligence on loan quality is being observed and transparency standards upheld. So far, while the Chinese economy continues to grow strongly, the rates of delinquency on such asset-backed securities are low, analysts said. Liquidity levels have also been helped by strong issuance. Total auto asset-backed securities issued in the first half of the year hit Rmb60bn, according to Standard & Poor’s.

實(shí)際上，投資者相信以美歐汽車制造商的信譽(yù)，應(yīng)該能確保有關(guān)貸款質(zhì)量的盡職調(diào)查以及透明度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)會(huì)得到履行。分析師說，到目前為止，在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁增長之際，此類資產(chǎn)支持證券的違約率很低。強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)行勢(shì)頭也有助于提升流動(dòng)性水平。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(S&P)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年發(fā)行的汽車資產(chǎn)支持證券總額達(dá)到600億元人民幣。

The Chinese lionise people who are “first to eat the crab” — suggesting outsize rewards for those who take on challenges. At the moment, those rewards are going to investors in carmakers’ ABS. But if China’s economy was to suddenly cool — especially if car sales slowed sharply — investors could find that the crab starts to nip them.

中國人推崇“第一個(gè)吃螃蟹的人”，因此那些接受挑戰(zhàn)的人會(huì)獲得特別大的回報(bào)。當(dāng)前，那些投資汽車制造商發(fā)行的資產(chǎn)支持證券的人就有望得到這樣的回報(bào)。但如果中國經(jīng)濟(jì)突然降溫——尤其是如果汽車銷量大幅放緩——投資者可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)螃蟹開始夾自己的手了。