美聯(lián)儲主席耶倫：加息不應“過于漸進”

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said policymakers ought to be careful of “moving too gradually” on monetary policy despite “significant uncertainties” over inflation.

美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)表示，政策制定者應該慎防在貨幣政策上“動作過于漸進”，盡管在通脹上存在“重大不確定性”。

Ms Yellen, speaking on Tuesday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland, Ohio, acknowledged that “some key assumptions underlying the baseline outlook could be wrong in ways that imply that inflation will remain low for longer than currently projected”.

耶倫周二在俄亥俄州克利夫蘭舉行的全美商業(yè)經(jīng)濟協(xié)會(National Association for Business Economics)年會上發(fā)言，承認“支撐基線前景預測的一些關鍵假設可能是錯誤的，而這意味著相比當前預測，通脹將在低位徘徊更久。”

But she cautioned against waiting too long to raise interest rates again, underscoring the signal from the Fed’s latest policy meeting last week that another rate rise may be on the cards before the end of 2017.

但是，她反對在再次加息之前等待太久，從而加強了美聯(lián)儲在上周最新政策會議上發(fā)出的信號，即在2017年底之前可能再次上調(diào)利率。

“A gradual approach is particularly appropriate in light of subdued inflation and a low neutral real interest rate, which imply that the [Federal Open Market Committee] will have only limited scope to cut the federal funds rate should the economy be hit with an adverse shock,” she said.

“在通脹低迷、中性實際利率較低的情況下，漸進的做法尤其適當，這意味著如果經(jīng)濟受到不利沖擊，(聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會)削減聯(lián)邦基金利率的空間將是有限的，”她表示。

“But we should also be wary of moving too gradually. Job gains continue to run well ahead of the longer-run pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labour force.”

“但是我們也應該對動作過于漸進抱有戒心。就業(yè)增長繼續(xù)保持良好勢頭，遠遠超前于我們估計的、平均而言對于為勞動力隊伍新加入者提供就業(yè)已經(jīng)充足的較長期步伐。”

She said that without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, there is a risk that the labour market could become overheated, potentially creating an inflationary problem down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession.

她表示，如果不隨著時間的推移進一步適度上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率，勞動力市場會有過熱的風險，可能在未來某時釀成一個通脹問題，而這個問題可能難以在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的前提下克服。

The reason for persistently low inflation has become a matter of intense debate among rate-setters at the Fed. Some of Ms Yellen’s colleagues have offered theories that include structural drags on prices from technology.

通脹持續(xù)低迷的原因已成為美聯(lián)儲利率制定者之間激烈辯論的一個焦點問題。耶倫的某些同事提出了一些理論，包括科技給價格水平帶來的結(jié)構性抑制。

Ms Yellen has pointed to other reasons for the inflation undershoots in previous years, among them spare capacity in the jobs market after the recession, falling energy prices and an appreciation of the dollar. On Tuesday she said that further idiosyncratic factors, including a dip in telecoms prices, meant that a recent decline in inflation was “probably temporary”.

耶倫曾指出過去幾年通脹偏低的其他原因，包括經(jīng)濟衰退過后就業(yè)市場的富余供應、能源價格下滑以及美元升值。她在周二表示，更多的特殊因素，包括電信服務價格下滑，意味著近期通脹下降“很可能是暫時的”。

As Ms Yellen spoke, the yield on the two-year US Treasury note, which is considered most sensitive to monetary policy, was at its highest point since 2008 at 1.45 per cent, having inched ahead of a peak it reached shortly after last week’s Fed meeting.

耶倫發(fā)表講話之際，被認為對貨幣政策最敏感的兩年期美國國債收益率達到1.45%，這是自2008年以來的最高點，高于上周美聯(lián)儲會議后不久達到的一個峰值。

The dollar index, measuring the US currency against a basket of peers, pared its gains slightly before rising back up to 93.16, and stocks were largely steady.

衡量美元相對于一籃子貨幣匯率的美元指數(shù)最初回吐了部分漲幅，隨后回升至93.16點，股價基本穩(wěn)定。