巴西歡迎中國投資基礎設施

When Li Keqiang, China’s premier, sought to emphasise the strength of Beijing’s relations with Brazil, he wrote of the Chinese love for Brazilian soap operas, such as the 1970s telenovela Escrava Isaura (Isaura the Slave Girl). The series, which played to enthusiastic audiences in China, traces the beautiful and modest Isaura’s tortuous battles with adversity.

當中國總理李克強試圖強調(diào)北京方面與巴西的緊密關系時，他曾寫到中國人對巴西肥皂劇的喜愛，比如上世紀70年代的電視連續(xù)劇《女奴》(Escrava Isaura)。這部在中國膾炙人口的電視劇，描述了美麗質(zhì)樸的伊佐拉與逆境斗爭的曲折故事。

A similar narrative could be applied — admittedly with a great deal less romantic heat — to Brazil’s seesawing economic relationship with China. The ardour that had attended the boom in commodity exports to China from the early years of the millennium had dissipated by 2015 as an economic crash threw millions out of work.

類似的描述也適用于闡釋巴西與中國忽冷忽熱的經(jīng)濟關系，但不可否認的是這其中并沒有那么多浪漫元素。21世紀頭些年里伴隨巴西對華大宗商品出口繁榮的熱情，到2015年已消失殆盡——那時巴西遭遇經(jīng)濟崩潰，導致數(shù)百萬人失去工作。

But in the same 2015 article in which he lionised Isaura, Li struck an optimistic tone. The “natural partners” would forge a new path that would transcend the reliance on commodity trade and emphasise Chinese investment in infrastructure to help Brazil avoid the “middle income trap”, Li wrote.

但是就在2015年李克強贊美伊佐拉的那篇文章里，他表現(xiàn)出了樂觀的情緒。他寫道，中巴這兩個“天然的合作伙伴”將走出一條超越對大宗商品貿(mào)易依賴的新路，并強調(diào)中國對巴西基礎設施的投資將幫助巴西跨越“中等收入陷阱”。

“China is willing to participate in the Brazilian freight railway network, power grid, communications network and other large construction projects, and co-operate with the Brazilian side through the whole industrial chain in shipbuilding, chemical, oil and gas exploration and other areas,” Li added.

李克強還稱，“中方愿參與巴西貨運鐵路網(wǎng)、電網(wǎng)、通信網(wǎng)等重大項目建設，與巴方一道推進造船、化工、油氣勘探等領域全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈合作。”

Over the past 18 months, Beijing has started delivering, in emphatic fashion. Kevin Gallagher, professor of global development policy at Boston University, says a new phase in China’s commercial relationship with Brazil is under way. “The boom is over with respect to commodities, but there is now a shift toward infrastructure, banking and some manufacturing.”

過去18個月，北京方面開始明確兌現(xiàn)承諾。波士頓大學(Boston University)全球發(fā)展政策教授凱文•加拉格爾(Kevin Gallagher)表示，中國與巴西的商業(yè)關系正步入新階段。“大宗商品繁榮期已經(jīng)結束，但是如今基礎設施業(yè)、銀行業(yè)和部分制造業(yè)正在活躍起來。”

One of the clearest expressions of China’s new resolve came in June this year, when it agreed to allocate $15bn toward a bilateral $20bn fund earmarked mainly for infrastructure projects. Brazilian financial institutions are scheduled to provide $5bn to the fund, which was first proposed by Li during his 2015 visit to the country.

有關中國新決心最清晰的表現(xiàn)之一出現(xiàn)在今年6月，當時中方同意為總值200億美元的雙邊基金(主要用于基礎設施項目)出資150億美元。巴西金融機構計劃為該基金出資50億美元。此項基金最初由李克強在2015年訪問巴西時提出。

“China has been really quick in setting up the $20bn infrastructure fund because it wants to get going [on investments],” Gallagher says. “Brazil is, of course, very hot to trot because the cost of capital is expensive for it right now. Brazil has major infrastructure gaps that won’t be filled by private capital or even development banks, so those funds are sorely needed.”

“中國很快就成立了這個總值200億美元的基建基金，因為它想開始(投資)，”加拉格爾表示，“當然，巴西非常樂意配合，因為如今對它來說資本的成本太高了。巴西存在很大的基建缺口，私人資本、甚至發(fā)展銀行都無法填補，因此巴西迫切需要這些基金。”

The scope of Brazil’s infrastructure needs — and therefore the size of the opportunity to China’s contract-hungry engineering companies — is huge. The Global Infrastructure Hub, a G20 research initiative, estimates that Brazil will need to put $2.7tn into infrastructure by 2040, but at the current rate of investment will achieve only $1.5tn of this, leaving a shortfall of $1.2tn.

巴西對基建的需求巨大，因此也給迫切需要合同的中國工程公司帶來了巨大的機遇。二十國集團(G20)研究計劃“全球基礎設施中心”(Global Infrastructure Hub)預計，2040年年底前，巴西將需要向基建投入2.7萬億美元，但以目前的投資速度只能獲得1.5萬億美元的資金，還剩1.2萬億美元的資金缺口。

Such pressures, reinforced by those of an economy in recession, have led to a more open attitude to foreigners owning and building infrastructure. China’s big state groups have seized on this, snapping up some prize infrastructure assets and preparing bids for many more, officials and analysts say.

此類壓力、再加上經(jīng)濟衰退帶來的壓力，導致巴西對外國人擁有并建設基礎設施持較為開放的態(tài)度。政府官員和分析師表示，中國大型國企抓住了這一點，搶占了部分一流的基建資產(chǎn)并準備參與更多項目競標。

“Some countries will not allow investment from China in these sectors [basic infrastructure], but this is not the case in Brazil,” says Roberto Jaguaribe, president of Apex-Brazil, the Brazilian trade and investment promotion agency. “We are very open to infrastructure investments from China.”

“一些國家不允許中國投資進入這些領域(基建)，但巴西不是這樣，”巴西出口投資促進局(Apex-Brazil)主席羅伯托•雅瓜里貝(Roberto Jaguaribe)表示，“我們非常歡迎中國資本投資基建。”

Jaguaribe, a former Brazilian ambassador to China, is in no doubt about the macroeconomic importance that Chinese investments represent as his country grapples to free itself from the deep recession that followed the commodity boom. “China is the biggest year-to-year investor in Brazil in recent years and we think these investments are going to go even higher,” he says.

前巴西駐華大使雅瓜里貝認為，在巴西努力擺脫在大宗商品繁榮后到來的深度衰退之際，中國投資對巴西宏觀經(jīng)濟的重要性是毫無疑問的。他稱，“近年來中國是對巴投資同比增速最快的國家，我們認為中國投資還會越來越多。”

In hard numbers, China’s infrastructure-led acquisitions amounted to $5.7bn in the first four months of 2017, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of total inward investment, according to Dealogic, the consultancy. The Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce in São Paulo predicts this number could reach $20bn for the whole of 2017, up 70 per cent on 2016.

以具體數(shù)據(jù)來看，根據(jù)咨詢機構Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年第一季度與基建有關的中國企業(yè)收購總計達57億美元，幾乎占巴西外來投資總額的40%。位于圣保羅的巴中工商總會(Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry)預計，2017年整年的數(shù)字可能將達到200億美元，較2016年增長70%。

The importance of Chinese infrastructure investments can be seen clearly in the power generation and transmission sectors. State Grid Corp, a state-owned Chinese power transmission company and the world’s largest utility, bought a controlling stake in CPFL Energia last year. This made the Chinese company, which already operated nearly 10,000km of power lines in Brazil, responsible for one of the largest parts of the country’s power grid.

在巴西發(fā)電和輸電部門可以明顯看出中國基建投資的重要性。全世界最大的公用事業(yè)公司、中國國有輸電公司國家電網(wǎng)(State Grid Corp)，去年收購了CPFL Energia的控股權。這使得這家已經(jīng)運營了巴西近10000公里輸電線的中國企業(yè)，控制了巴西電網(wǎng)的最大部分之一。

In power generation, the China Three Gorges Corporation bought a 30-year franchise for two large hydropower plants, the Jupiá and Ilha Solteira, for $3.7bn in late 2015. But this might be just the start of a wave of deals. Several other Chinese power companies, including Shanghai Electric, China Southern Power Grid and Huaneng, are considering bids for power industry assets set to be sold off, analysts say.

在發(fā)電方面，2015年末中國長江三峽集團公司(China Three Gorges Corporation)以37億美元收購了Jupiá和Ilha Solteira這兩座電站30年的特許經(jīng)營權。但這可能只是這波交易潮的開始。分析人士稱，包括上海電氣(Shanghai Electric)、中國南方電網(wǎng)(China Southern Power Grid)和華能(Huaneng)等其他幾家中國電力公司正在考慮競標計劃出售的電力資產(chǎn)。

In one sense, the Chinese are acting as white knights. Some Brazilian electricity companies’ debt is rising to unsustainable levels, exacerbated by the recession and a government measure in 2012 that forced companies to cut tariffs to renew their 30-year contracts with the government. A severe drought between 2013 and 2015 shrivelled the country’s reservoirs, hitting hydropower companies hard, as customers switched from hydroelectric to thermoelectric sources.

在某種意義上，中國正在扮演白衣騎士的角色。受經(jīng)濟衰退和2012年巴西政府措施(要求企業(yè)必須下調(diào)電費價格才能續(xù)簽與政府的30年合同)拖累，一些巴西電力公司的債務正在攀升至不可持續(xù)的水平。2013年至2015年的嚴重干旱使得巴西的水庫干涸，重創(chuàng)了水電公司，因為用戶從水電轉(zhuǎn)向了熱電。

The strategic dimension to this is that Beijing regards Brazil as an important ally in the developing world, a key potential market of more than 200m people and a springboard for commercial opportunities in the rest of Latin America. That Brazil is situated in the strategic backyard of the US, which has an increasingly fraught relationship with China, only increases the value of Beijing’s ties with the country.

在戰(zhàn)略層面上，北京方面把巴西視為發(fā)展中世界的重要盟友、擁有逾2億人口的關鍵潛在市場、也是中國企業(yè)在拉美其他地區(qū)尋找商業(yè)機會的跳板。在地理位置上，巴西正處于美國的戰(zhàn)略后院內(nèi)。美國與中國的關系愈發(fā)令人擔憂，這只會進一步提升中巴關系的重要性。

There are, however, residual concerns, says Jaguaribe. Chinese infrastructure companies should be careful to observe Brazilian labour practices, environmental and social standards as they go about acquiring big chunks of the country’s basic infrastructure, he warns. “The biggest barrier is that they can’t act abroad as they do in China,” says Jaguaribe. “Some countries let them do this, but this does not happen in Brazil.”

然而，雅瓜里貝表示仍然存在一些顧慮。他警告稱，中國基建公司在準備收購巴西大型基建項目時，應該小心遵守巴西在用工做法、環(huán)境和社會方面的標準。“最大的障礙是他們不能像在中國一樣在外國行事，”雅瓜里貝表示，“一些國家允許他們這樣做，但巴西不會。”