特朗普獲得重塑美聯儲的大好機會

Donald Trump was already faced with an extraordinary opportunity to reshape the US central bank. The decision by Stanley Fischer to leave the Federal Reserve’s powerful board of governors eight months before his term expires will allow the president to make his mark even sooner.

一個重塑美國央行的絕佳機會擺在了唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的、面前。美聯儲(Fed)副主席斯坦利•費希爾(Stanley Fischer)決定在其任期結束前8個月辭去其在美聯儲權力強大的理事會中的職務，這將使美國總統得以更早地在美聯儲打上他的印記。

The Fed vice-chair’s departure next month opens a fourth vacancy on the board of governors, depending on how soon incoming governor Randal Quarles can clinch confirmation in the Senate. On top of that, Janet Yellen may well fail to win a second term as Fed chair when her current stint expires in February.

費希爾下月離開美聯儲之際，美聯儲理事會將出現第4個職位空缺，具體情況還要取決于即將進入理事會的蘭德爾•夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)的提名能夠多快得到參議院確認。此外，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)的任期將在明年2月結束，她可能無法獲得連任。

By early next year there may be only two governors left who can count their service at the Fed in years rather than weeks or months. Sarah Binder of George Washington University says in modern times no president has had more potential Fed board positions to fill at one time.

到明年初，美聯儲理事會中可能只有兩位理事能夠以年(而不是周或者月)為單位來計算他們余下的任期。喬治華盛頓大學(George Washington University)的薩拉•賓德(Sarah Binder)表示，在當代，還沒有哪位總統有機會一次填補這么多美聯儲理事會席位空缺。

The question is how Mr Trump wants to exploit his big moment to reshape the bank. Those in the process are finding his intentions characteristically unpredictable, and sluggish progress on White House appointments risks leaving the Fed thinly staffed for some time, to the dismay of former Fed officials.

問題在于特朗普想要如何利用他的重大機會來重塑美國的央行。參與這一進程的人發(fā)現特朗普的意圖一如既往不可預測，使美聯儲的前官員感到不安的是，白宮任命流程的緩慢有可能使美聯儲在一段時間內人員不足。

“There are just huge question marks for the future of the Fed right now — we don’t have a good sense of where Trump is headed,” said Ms Binder. “The White House appointments process is achingly slow, as is the Senate confirmation process.”

“現在，巨大的問號打在美聯儲的前景之上——我們弄不清特朗普的前進方向，”賓德說，“白宮任命流程極為緩慢，參議院確認提名的流程同樣如此。”

Gary Cohn, who emerged as a frontrunner to be the next Fed chair during the summer, has more recently soured his prospects by publicly attacking Mr Trump’s response to the Charlottesville violence in the pages of the Financial Times.

今年夏天，加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)一度是下一任美聯儲主席的熱門人選，但最近這一前景變得暗淡，原因是他在英國《金融時報》上公開批評特朗普對夏洛茨威爾(Charlottesville)暴力事件的回應。

At the margin, Mr Cohn’s reduced standing could boost Ms Yellen’s chances of retaining the position of chair. But while the president admires her willingness to pursue a low interest rate policy, the administration’s appetite for slacker financial regulation may prove equally pressing, while Mr Cohn could yet restore his standing with the president with a big win on tax reform.

此消彼長，科恩失寵或許能提高耶倫保住美聯儲主席之位的機會。但盡管特朗普總統欣賞耶倫推行低息政策的意愿，特朗普政府對放松金融監(jiān)管的渴望可能同樣迫切，而科恩也可能通過在稅改上取得一場大勝來重新贏得特朗普的歡心。

Ms Yellen has made clear her opposition to anything other than incremental adjustments to financial regulation; her recent comment to the Senate Banking Committee that some Treasury proposals would increase the risk of a new crisis were poorly received.

耶倫明確表示，除非是逐步調整金融監(jiān)管，否則她一概反對;她最近對參議院銀行業(yè)委員會(Senate banking committee)提出，美國財政部的一些提案可能會加大爆發(fā)一場新危機的風險，但并未得到多少理會。

Among the other key candidates for chair is Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who enjoys good White House connections and who has been vigorously campaigning for the job. In July, he co-wrote a markedly Trump-friendly paper with fellow Stanford professor John Taylor and Glenn Hubbard of Columbia Business School, who, like Mr Warsh, are potential Fed chairs.

其他主要的美聯儲主席候選人還包括前美聯儲理事凱文•沃什(Kevin Warsh)，沃什與白宮的關系不錯，同時也一直在積極爭取這個職位。今年7月，他與斯坦福大學(Stanford)教授約翰•泰勒(John Taylor)及哥倫比亞商學院(Columbia Business School)的格倫•哈伯德(Glenn Hubbard)，聯合撰寫了一篇引人注目的示好特朗普的文章，與沃倫一樣，泰勒和哈伯德也都有望出任美聯儲主席。

They enthusiastically endorsed the president’s growth goals — in contrast to Ms Yellen, who has publicly doubted the administration’s 3 per cent growth target. Other possible candidates include Larry Lindsey, a former governor, and current Fed governor Jay Powell.

他們熱烈擁護總統提出的經濟增長目標——這與耶倫相反，耶倫曾公開質疑特朗普政府提出的3%的增長目標。其他可能出任美聯儲主席的人選還有前美聯儲理事拉里•林塞(Larry Lindsey)，以及現任美聯儲理事杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)。

Jon Faust, who was an adviser to Ms Yellen at the Fed and is now at Johns Hopkins University, does not believe the drafters of the Fed’s legislation envisaged a president appointing such a large chunk of the Board of Governors all at once. He has concerns about who will emerge from the White House pipeline. “One president doing five [appointments] at once is not good thing — and with this president is more worrisome,” he said.

現任約翰霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)教授的喬恩•福斯特(Jon Faust)，曾在美聯儲擔任耶倫的顧問，他認為美聯儲法案的起草者們不曾設想一位總統能一次性任命這么多位理事。對于白宮準備任命誰，他憂心忡忡。他說：“一個總統一次作出五個任命并非一件好事——而且現在這位總統更令人擔憂。”

That said, Mr Quarles, whose candidacy was being considered on the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, has won praise from the banking world as a highly experienced hand, even if Democrats expressed dismay over his willingness to loosen post-crisis regulation. Marvin Goodfriend, a former Richmond Fed economist, is another likely Trump appointee to the board, and he enjoys the respect of monetary economists.

盡管如此，9月7日參議院銀行業(yè)委員會已經開始考慮夸爾斯的理事候選人資格，盡管民主黨對夸爾斯贊成放松危機后實施的監(jiān)管表示失望，但作為一位經驗豐富的老手，夸爾斯還是贏得了銀行界的好評。馬爾文•古德弗蘭德(Marvin Goodfriend)是另一位特朗普可能會任命的理事，古德弗蘭德曾是里士滿聯儲銀行(Richmond Fed)的經濟學家，深受貨幣經濟學家尊敬。

Both of those individuals have advocated the use of stricter rules governing monetary policy, while Mr Warsh has advocated a smaller footprint for the central bank. None represents a radical break from monetary policy orthodoxy, however.

這兩名候選人都主張采用更加嚴格的規(guī)則來管理貨幣政策，而沃什提倡縮小美聯儲的影響力。然而，他們誰也沒有徹底突破正統的貨幣政策。

“They are in the responsible mainstream of Republican thought on these issues,” said Ted Truman, a former Fed official who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“他們都代表了共和黨在這些問題上的主流思想，”前美聯儲官員泰德•杜魯門(Ted Truman)說，杜魯門現在是彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的非常駐高級研究員。

The bigger problem, he argues, is there are “so many holes” on the board of an institution with broad powers over markets and the US and world economies — creating uncertain conditions in global markets. “You want a firm hand at the tiller, and that argues for getting on with some other appointments and resolving the chairmanship by the middle of November,” he said.

他認為更大的問題在于，一個對市場、對美國和世界經濟擁有廣泛影響力的機構，其理事會居然會“出現這么多職位空缺”——由此在全球市場上造成諸多不確定條件。他說：“人們需要一個堅定的舵手，因此需要在11月中旬之前，繼續(xù)任命其他理事并確定主席人選。”

Mr Trump’s record of hesitation and false starts on appointments means such a smooth handover of power at the Fed cannot be guaranteed.

特朗普過往的猶豫不決，以及在任命方面的糟糕開端，意味著美聯儲權力的順利交接無法得到保證。