Lex專欄：融創(chuàng)買主題公園為拿地

Sunac’s theme park deal is a land grab, not a compliment to Mickey Mouse. Much has happened in the two weeks since the developer announced it would buy a slew of stakes from rival Dalian Wanda. On Tuesday, Sunac said that it would raise HK$4.03bn ($516m) from a share sale to “optimise the capital structure”. This will do little to restrain soaring debt. But nor is it a sign of distress.

融創(chuàng)(Sunac)的主題公園交易是為了搶地，而不是“向米老鼠致敬”。自從這家開(kāi)發(fā)商宣布將從對(duì)手大連萬(wàn)達(dá)(Dalian Wanda)購(gòu)買大量股份以來(lái)，兩周時(shí)間里發(fā)生了很多事情。周二，融創(chuàng)中國(guó)表示將增發(fā)新股募集40.3億港元(合5.16億美元)以“優(yōu)化資本結(jié)構(gòu)”。此舉對(duì)抑制不斷高漲的債務(wù)并無(wú)太大幫助，但也不是財(cái)務(wù)緊張的征兆。

Sunac is a home builder. It needs land to build on. Project acquisitions are an important source of growth, given that the Chinese government started tightening the supply of housing in 2014. New land sales dropped by a third in the subsequent two years, according to Citi. The measures were successful: The average time of stock in inventory declined from 25 to nine months in key cities as a result.

融創(chuàng)是一家住宅開(kāi)發(fā)商，它需要土地來(lái)蓋房子。項(xiàng)目收購(gòu)現(xiàn)在成了增長(zhǎng)的重要來(lái)源，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)政府在2014年開(kāi)始收緊住房供應(yīng)。據(jù)花旗集團(tuán)(Citi)數(shù)據(jù)，新地銷售在隨后兩年下降了三分之一。官方舉措取得了成功，重點(diǎn)城市房屋庫(kù)存平均去化周期從25個(gè)月降至9個(gè)月。

The theme parks come with a land bank of roughly 50m square meters, a 70 per cent boost to Sunac’s sellable area before the deal. A third developer, Guangzhou R&F will buy the hotels that were part of the initial deal — they do not come with land to sell. In this latest iteration of the deal, Sunac pays Rmb43bn ($6.5bn) and takes on Rmb15bn in net debt. That adds up to a price tag of Rmb1,200 per square metre. Finished projects sell to home buyers at multiples of that.

此次主題公園交易帶來(lái)約5000萬(wàn)平方米的土地儲(chǔ)備，融創(chuàng)可售土地面積比交易前增長(zhǎng)了70%。第三家開(kāi)發(fā)商廣州富力地產(chǎn)(Guangzhou R&F Properties)將購(gòu)買初始交易中的酒店部分，這部分不帶有可售土地。在最新版本的交易中，融創(chuàng)將支付438億元人民幣(合65億美元)，并背負(fù)150億元人民幣凈債務(wù)，為每平方米土地貼上了高達(dá)1200元人民幣的價(jià)簽。出售給購(gòu)房者的成品房?jī)r(jià)格將是這一價(jià)格的好多倍。

Sunac had Rmb70bn in cash at the end of the year and reported 90 per cent growth of contracted sales for the first half of 2017. Annual sales have more than doubled to Rmb151bn. Paying for the acquisition is not problematic. Net debt will jump by roughly Rmb60bn to Rmb120bn. Leverage will probably be high but new debt should be compared with the potential value of the inventory.

2016年底時(shí)，融創(chuàng)賬面上有700億元人民幣現(xiàn)金，此外據(jù)報(bào)道2017年上半年其合同銷售增長(zhǎng)了90%。融創(chuàng)2016年的年銷售額達(dá)到1510億元人民幣，同比增長(zhǎng)了一倍多。支付此次收購(gòu)毫無(wú)問(wèn)題。其凈債務(wù)大概將劇增600億元人民幣，至1200億元人民幣。杠桿率可能會(huì)很高，但看待新債務(wù)應(yīng)與庫(kù)存的潛在價(jià)值進(jìn)行比較。

Citi estimates that the residential area sold in China peaked in 2016 and market share of the top 10 developers will double to two-fifths in the four years to 2020. Sunac’s financial profile will remain risky — the increase to its Rmb35bn shareholders’ equity will not give much comfort to investors. But the deal gives the Tianjin-based developer a chance to compete in China’s consolidating property market. It should be welcomed.

花旗估計(jì)，2016年中國(guó)住宅銷售面積達(dá)到高峰，至2020年十大開(kāi)發(fā)商的市場(chǎng)份額將在這四年內(nèi)翻一番，達(dá)到五分之二。融創(chuàng)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況將繼續(xù)處于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中，股東權(quán)益在350億元人民幣的基礎(chǔ)上增加也不會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)多少安慰。但該交易讓這家天津開(kāi)發(fā)商有機(jī)會(huì)在中國(guó)趨于整合的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，應(yīng)受到歡迎。