人民幣貶值的雙刃劍讓中國(guó)企業(yè)好為難

FOSHAN, China — At first glance, given the way that China controls its currency, the Guangdong Chigo Air Conditioning Company might seem like a winner.

中國(guó)佛山——鑒于中國(guó)控制貨幣的方式，廣東志高空調(diào)有限公司乍一看似乎是個(gè)贏家。

For the past three years, China has allowed its currency, the renminbi, to weaken in value compared with the American dollar. On paper, that should bolster Chigo’s profits. Half of its $1.2 billion in annual sales come from abroad, mostly in dollars, and a weaker renminbi gives Chinese companies an advantage when they sell their products in other countries.

過(guò)去三年里，中國(guó)讓自己的貨幣人民幣相較美元貶值。理論上，這應(yīng)該提高志高的利潤(rùn)。其12億美元(約合80億元人民幣)的年銷售額中，有一半來(lái)自國(guó)外，且主要是以美元結(jié)算;人民幣貶值讓中國(guó)的企業(yè)在其他國(guó)家銷售產(chǎn)品時(shí)占據(jù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Yet the renminbi’s slide has provided only a marginal benefit, said Li Xinghao, the company’s founder and chairman. Big Western department store chains have learned to pit manufacturers against one another — and China is full of air-conditioner manufacturers. When the renminbi weakens, the chains simply tell factory bosses to cut their prices or lose the business to another Chinese factory.

但該公司的創(chuàng)始人、董事局主席李興浩表示，人民幣貶值只帶來(lái)了邊際收益。西方大的連鎖百貨公司已經(jīng)學(xué)會(huì)讓制造商相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而在中國(guó)，空調(diào)制造商遍地都是。人民幣貶值時(shí)，那些連鎖公司只是簡(jiǎn)單地讓工廠老板降價(jià)，否則生意就會(huì)流向另一家中國(guó)工廠。

“It only brings benefits for the first month,” Mr. Li said. “For the next month, clients are recalculating what they’ll pay. The supply is much greater than demand, so profits can’t go up.”

“只是第一個(gè)月帶來(lái)了好處，”李興浩說(shuō)。“第二個(gè)月，客戶就在重新計(jì)算要付的價(jià)錢了。供遠(yuǎn)大于求，所以利潤(rùn)上不去。”

The renminbi is likely to be a major topic behind closed doors as Chinese lawmakers gather beginning on Sunday for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the top lawmaking body in the country. President Trump had heavily criticized China during the campaign, saying that Beijing for many years used an artificially weak currency to unfairly help its businesses and steal American jobs.

本周日，中國(guó)立法者開始聚集起來(lái)，召開中國(guó)最高立法機(jī)構(gòu)全國(guó)人民代表大會(huì)的年度會(huì)議時(shí)，人民幣可能會(huì)是閉門討論的一個(gè)重要話題。特朗普總統(tǒng)在競(jìng)選期間嚴(yán)厲指責(zé)中國(guó)，稱多年來(lái)，北京利用被人為壓低匯率的貨幣不公平地幫助中國(guó)企業(yè)，并竊取美國(guó)的就業(yè)崗位。

Mr. Trump has not acted on a campaign promise to label China a currency manipulator, and Steven Mnuchin, the new Treasury secretary, has said the administration is conducting a standard review of China’s currency policy. Still, Mr. Trump has kept up his rhetoric.

特朗普尚未兌現(xiàn)競(jìng)選時(shí)的承諾，將中國(guó)列為匯率操縱國(guó)，新任財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·努欽(Steven Mnuchin)則表示，聯(lián)邦政府正在對(duì)中國(guó)的匯率政策進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)評(píng)估。但特朗普的口風(fēng)并沒(méi)有變。

Investors and economists widely expect market forces to push the renminbi to weaken even more. And that leaves China with some tough choices. If Beijing lets its currency slide, it will risk worsening relations with Washington.

投資者和經(jīng)濟(jì)專家普遍預(yù)計(jì)，市場(chǎng)力量會(huì)推動(dòng)人民幣進(jìn)一步貶值。這會(huì)讓中國(guó)面臨棘手的選擇。如果北京放任人民幣貶值，就可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致與華盛頓的關(guān)系惡化。

On the other hand, a weaker currency would help its factories. But economists and business executives are increasingly throwing cold water on that thinking, saying the dynamic has changed: These days, they say, a weaker currency may hurt China and its companies more than it helps.

另一方面，貨幣貶值可能會(huì)有助于中國(guó)的工廠。但經(jīng)濟(jì)專家和企業(yè)高管越來(lái)越多地向這種想法潑冷水，稱形勢(shì)變了：他們說(shuō)，如今貨幣貶值對(duì)中國(guó)和中國(guó)公司的傷害也許比幫助大。

Chinese officials, who keep a tight grip on the currency’s value, appear to be aware of that. In recent months, they have kept the value from falling to 7 renminbi to the dollar, a level the currency has not seen since May 2008. Currently, it is hovering at about 6.9 renminbi to the dollar. That support is expensive — China has drawn nearly $1 trillion from its huge stash of foreign money to hold its currency steady.

嚴(yán)格控制人民幣價(jià)值的中國(guó)官員似乎也意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn)。最近幾個(gè)月，他們防止人民幣匯率跌至自2008年5月以來(lái)從未出現(xiàn)過(guò)的7元人民幣兌1美元。目前，人民幣與美元之間的匯率在6.9元人民幣兌1美元左右徘徊。這種支持代價(jià)昂貴：中國(guó)已從其龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備中抽出近1萬(wàn)億美元，以維持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定。

The currency is under pressure to depreciate for a number of reasons. Among them: Families and companies are sending their money out of China, looking for safer places to store it as the country’s growth cools.

人民幣面臨貶值壓力的原因有很多，其中包括：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)降溫，家庭和公司正在把資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移至國(guó)外，尋找更安全的存放地點(diǎn)。

China keeps a tight rein on the amount of money that flows over its borders. But between the semiautonomous Chinese city of Hong Kong, which has a separate currency and legal system, and its neighbor on the mainland, Shenzhen, “there are thousands and thousands of smugglers, and they just bring billions of dollars” out of China, said Kevin Lai, the chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets. A weaker currency could push more Chinese people and companies to send their money abroad, for fear of further losses if they continue to hold renminbi.

中國(guó)嚴(yán)格控制流出國(guó)境的資金金額。但大和資本市場(chǎng)(Daiwa Capital Markets)負(fù)責(zé)除日本外亞洲市場(chǎng)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賴志文(Kevin Lai)說(shuō)，在有著單獨(dú)貨幣和法律制度的中國(guó)半自治城市香港及其位于中國(guó)大陸的鄰居深圳之間，“有千千萬(wàn)萬(wàn)的走私者，把數(shù)十億美元”帶出中國(guó)。人民幣貶值可能會(huì)促使更多的中國(guó)民眾和公司把資金轉(zhuǎn)移到國(guó)外，因?yàn)樗麄內(nèi)绻麚?dān)心繼續(xù)持有人民幣，會(huì)蒙受進(jìn)一步的損失。

That isn’t all. The weaker currency makes it harder for many of China’s heavily indebted companies to pay off what they owe overseas or to raise more money. A weaker currency also does not pack the same competitive punch because so much of the world’s manufacturing base is now in China; four-fifths of the world’s window-mounted air-conditioners are made in the country, for example. Basically, a weaker currency is not as much help if a company’s competitors all use the same currency.

這還不是全部。人民幣貶值會(huì)增加很多債臺(tái)高筑的中國(guó)公司還清海外債務(wù)或籌集更多資金的難度。人民幣貶值也并不會(huì)增強(qiáng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，因?yàn)槿蛑圃鞓I(yè)基地中很大部分都在中國(guó)。比如，全球五分之四的窗式空調(diào)是中國(guó)制造?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，如果一家公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手用的都是同一種貨幣，貨幣貶值就不會(huì)起太多作用。

Today’s dynamic signals a big shift from a decade ago. Back then, Beijing kept the currency artificially weak compared with the dollar — and Chinese businesses benefited. A cheap and stable currency was one of a number of reasons that companies like General Electric, Mattel and Samsonite shifted production there. The shift gave China tens of millions of manufacturing jobs, stoked its economy and helped create a world power.

今天的態(tài)勢(shì)與十年前相比已經(jīng)發(fā)生了很大的變化。那時(shí)，北京人為壓低人民幣相較于美元的價(jià)值，中國(guó)企業(yè)獲益。低廉、穩(wěn)定的貨幣是通用電氣(General Electric)、美泰(Mattel)和新秀麗(Samsonite)等公司把生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到中國(guó)的眾多原因之一。這種轉(zhuǎn)移給中國(guó)提供了數(shù)千萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)工作崗位，刺激了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，并幫助中國(guó)成為世界大國(guó)。

In time, it also helped nurture homegrown competitors. The Carrier Corporation — which has partly reversed plans to move some production from the United States to Mexico after coming under pressure from Mr. Trump — built seven air-conditioner factories in China more than a decade ago. But in 2008, Carrier put them into a joint venture with Midea, one of Chigo’s main rivals in the Chinese air-conditioner industry. Carrier said it still held 40 percent of the joint venture but declined to comment further.

最后，它還幫助培養(yǎng)了本土競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。目前，在特朗普的壓力下，開利公司(Carrier Corporation)已經(jīng)部分改變了把一些生產(chǎn)從美國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到墨西哥的計(jì)劃。但十多年前，開利在中國(guó)建了七座空調(diào)廠。不過(guò)2008年，該公司把它們并入了與美的成立的一家合資企業(yè)。美的是志高在中國(guó)空調(diào)行業(yè)的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手之一。開利自稱仍持有該合資企業(yè)40%的股份，但拒絕進(jìn)一步置評(píng)。

The weaker currency still helps a number of companies, especially a small but growing group of Chinese companies that export specialized or high-quality products and compete with Western companies. One such Chinese company is Broad Air Conditioning, a maker of specialized central air-conditioning systems that are more energy-efficient but also considerably more expensive than most central air-conditioning systems.

人民幣貶值依然會(huì)幫到很多公司，特別是一批出口專業(yè)產(chǎn)品或高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品，同西方企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的中國(guó)公司。它們數(shù)量雖小，卻在不斷增加中。遠(yuǎn)大空調(diào)有限公司就是這樣一家中國(guó)公司。該公司生產(chǎn)的專業(yè)中央空調(diào)系統(tǒng)比大部分中央空調(diào)系統(tǒng)更節(jié)能，但也貴得多。

“However much the U.S. dollar rises, our profits rise the same,” said Wu Zheng, general manager of Broad’s international operations.

“美元升值多少，我們的利潤(rùn)就漲多少，”遠(yuǎn)大國(guó)際公司總經(jīng)理吳正說(shuō)。

But for most companies, other issues dwarf the currency. Wages have risen to the point where global manufacturers of low-cost items like shoes and clothing are shifting work outside China. Economic growth is slowing. Global trade has weakened. And in many industries, like window-mounted air-conditioners, a surplus of Chinese factories has undermined pricing and wiped out profits.

但對(duì)大部分企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，其他問(wèn)題蓋過(guò)了人民幣問(wèn)題。工資水平上漲，導(dǎo)致服裝和鞋履等低成本物品的跨國(guó)制造商正在把生產(chǎn)從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移出去。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。國(guó)際貿(mào)易疲軟。并且在很多行業(yè)，比如窗式空調(diào)行業(yè)，中國(guó)工廠的過(guò)量影響了定價(jià)，吞噬了利潤(rùn)。

Chigo — which is headquartered in Foshan, on the outskirts of the city of Guangzhou — lost money from operations in 2014 and 2015. In the first half of last year, Chigo eked out a tiny profit as the renminbi began to tumble. It was briefly able to capture some gains from the currency’s depreciation before foreign retailers demanded price discounts.

總部設(shè)在廣州附近佛山的志高空調(diào)，2014年和2015年連續(xù)虧損。去年上半年，隨著人民幣開始暴跌，志高勉強(qiáng)小幅盈利。在外國(guó)零售商提出折扣要求之前，它能在短時(shí)間內(nèi)從人民幣的貶值中獲得一些好處。

Chigo sells air-conditioners in 180 countries, including outlets in the United States like Menards, a Midwest chain of home-improvement centers.

志高的空調(diào)在180個(gè)國(guó)家有售，包括美國(guó)的賣場(chǎng)，如中西部的家裝連鎖梅納茲(Menards)。

Three years ago, Chigo experimented with its own shift overseas. With wages rising at home, it chose two countries with even lower wages as well as steep barriers to imports: Nigeria and India.

三年前，志高嘗試向國(guó)外轉(zhuǎn)移。鑒于國(guó)內(nèi)工資水平上漲，志高選擇了兩個(gè)工資水平更低且進(jìn)口壁壘頗高的國(guó)家：尼日利亞和印度。

Chigo found that in both countries, worker productivity was much lower while government corruption was a problem. In Africa, security was also an issue. A car carrying Chigo sales managers in Ghana was approached in broad daylight by two armed robbers who demanded the managers’ wallets and pistol-whipped their driver. Now its Indian and Nigerian operations have nearly shut down.

志高在這兩個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)現(xiàn)，工人的生產(chǎn)效率要低很多，同時(shí)政府腐敗也是一個(gè)問(wèn)題。在非洲，還有安全問(wèn)題。在加納，曾有兩名武裝劫匪在光天化日之下走到志高的銷售經(jīng)理們乘坐的車前，要求他們交出錢包，還用手槍柄打了司機(jī)。現(xiàn)在，志高在印度和尼日利亞的工廠幾乎都停工了。

“In China, companies feel a sense of safety, which is already a huge support” for business, said Jackie Cheng, the vice president of Chigo and general manager for its overseas marketing. China’s high-speed rail network and its world-class network of new expressways also make it easy to do business, he added.

“在中國(guó)，公司有安全感，這已經(jīng)是對(duì)生意的大力支持了，”志高副總裁、海外營(yíng)銷本部總經(jīng)理成劍說(shuō)。他接著表示，中國(guó)的高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)和世界級(jí)的新高速公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)也讓做生意變得容易。

Persuading Chinese managers to live overseas is also difficult, Chigo found. “That’s serious,” Mr. Cheng said. “We can’t get used to the food outside, and many Chinese can’t really speak English.”

志高發(fā)現(xiàn)，說(shuō)服中國(guó)管理人員在國(guó)外生活也很難。“這個(gè)問(wèn)題很嚴(yán)重，”成劍說(shuō)。“我們不習(xí)慣國(guó)外的飲食，很多中國(guó)人真的不會(huì)說(shuō)英語(yǔ)。”

The factory in Foshan ran only four days a week late last year because of weak orders and overcapacity in the Chinese air-conditioning manufacturing sector. In interviews, some Chigo workers expressed irritation that this meant they earned less money.

去年年底，因?yàn)橛唵紊俸椭袊?guó)空調(diào)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，佛山的工廠一周只生產(chǎn)四天。在采訪中，志高的一些工人表示了惱火，因?yàn)檫@意味著他們掙的錢少了。

But Mr. Cheng said that the company’s sprawling, 23-year-old factory had become busier in recent weeks as orders have risen. He attributed this mainly to an acceleration in the American and Chinese economies but also to the fall of the renminbi, which makes air-conditioners slightly cheaper and more affordable around the world and results in slightly greater demand.

但成劍說(shuō)，最近幾周，隨著訂單增加，該公司規(guī)模龐大且已有23年歷史的工廠已經(jīng)忙起來(lái)了。他把這種情況主要?dú)w因于美國(guó)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)加速，同時(shí)也有人民幣貶值的原因。后者讓空調(diào)在全世界變得稍微便宜一些，更實(shí)惠，導(dǎo)致需求小幅增加。

Yet if the renminbi weakens further this year, as many economists expect, Mr. Cheng expects further demands from overseas retailers for discounts, coupled with threats to move orders to other Chinese air-conditioning manufacturers if Chigo does not comply. Frowning, he added, “Our clients have already told me, ‘The renminbi will reach 7.1. Please reduce your prices.’”

但如果人民幣今年像很多經(jīng)濟(jì)專家預(yù)計(jì)的那樣進(jìn)一步貶值，成劍估計(jì)海外零售商會(huì)進(jìn)一步提出折扣要求，威脅如果志高不照辦，它們就把訂單交給其他中國(guó)空調(diào)制造商。他皺著眉補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“我們的客戶已經(jīng)和我說(shuō)了，‘人民幣匯率會(huì)跌到7.1。請(qǐng)降價(jià)吧。’”