中國(guó)企業(yè)今年以來(lái)從國(guó)際債券市場(chǎng)借入的資金多于它們向國(guó)內(nèi)投資者借入的資金,這一現(xiàn)象打破了傳統(tǒng),其背景是中國(guó)官方側(cè)重于遏止資本外流。
Banks and other corporate borrowers have been quietly encouraged to raise money offshore in other currencies, limiting the need for Chinese companies to sell renminbi to finance overseas investments. Borrowing more outside the mainland also allows for the possibility that companies will remit some of the cash back home, bolstering the Chinese currency in the process.
銀行和其他企業(yè)借款人被悄悄鼓勵(lì)在境外籌集外幣資金,以限制中國(guó)企業(yè)出售人民幣為境外投資買(mǎi)單的需要。在境外增加借款還帶來(lái)這樣一種可能性,即企業(yè)將會(huì)把一部分資金匯回境內(nèi),在此過(guò)程中支撐人民幣匯率。
Led by banks and property developers, corporate China has raised $26.1bn from offshore bond sales compared with $21bn at home, according to Dealogic. Chinese companies have also been prompted to seek foreign-based funding by the higher interest rates that policymakers have introduced this year.
Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在銀行和房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商的引領(lǐng)下,中國(guó)企業(yè)已通過(guò)境外債券發(fā)售籌集了261億美元,相比之下在國(guó)內(nèi)債市籌集了210億美元。中國(guó)企業(yè)尋求境外資金來(lái)源的另一個(gè)推動(dòng)因素是政策制定者今年引入的較高利率。
Banks have long been among the most active in raising money in other currencies to support expansion overseas. This month the Hong Kong units of Bank of China and ICBC tapped investors for $4bn in two, three-year dollar-denominated deals, while China Construction Bank’s European arm raised €500m.
在以本幣以外的貨幣籌集資金方面,銀行長(zhǎng)期躋身于最活躍的市場(chǎng)參與者之列,其目的是支持境外擴(kuò)張。本月,中國(guó)銀行(Bank of China)和中國(guó)工商銀行(ICBC)的香港部門(mén)以?xún)?、三年期美元?jì)價(jià)交易向投資者籌集40億美元,而中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行(CCB)的歐洲分支籌集了5億歐元。
The flood of deals beyond the mainland also suggests a measure of corporate confidence that China has the renminbi’s depreciation under control, bankers say, since borrowers’ liabilities would increase sharply if the currency were to plunge.
銀行家們表示,境外的交易洪流還似乎表明了一定程度的企業(yè)信心,即中國(guó)已經(jīng)控制住了人民幣貶值,因?yàn)槿绻嗣駧艆R率大跌,借款人的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)將大幅加重。
Last year the renminbi weakened 5.8 per cent against the dollar in offshore markets and 6.5 per cent onshore. So far in 2017, the offshore rate has gained 1.7 per cent as the dollar’s rally has paused.
去年離岸市場(chǎng)人民幣兌美元匯率下跌5.8%,在岸市場(chǎng)人民幣匯率下跌6.5%。進(jìn)入2017年以來(lái),隨著美元漲勢(shì)暫停,離岸市場(chǎng)人民幣匯率已經(jīng)上漲1.7%。
“There is a combination here of China encouraging borrowing offshore and people making judgments that the depreciation story may not be as severe as they thought,” said CG Lai, head of global markets for Greater China at BNP Paribas.
“兩方面的因素在結(jié)合起來(lái)產(chǎn)生作用:一是中國(guó)鼓勵(lì)境外借款,二是人們判斷人民幣貶值的情況可能沒(méi)有他們?cè)瓉?lái)想象的那么嚴(yán)重,”法國(guó)巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)大中華區(qū)環(huán)球市場(chǎng)部主管賴(lài)長(zhǎng)庚(CG Lai)表示。
Mr Lai added that the early year uncertainty over the direction of Chinese interest rates also damped domestic activity as borrowers and investors faced tighter monetary conditions than expected. The People’s Bank of China surprised markets by tightening a series of money market rates after the week-long lunar new year holiday.
賴(lài)長(zhǎng)庚補(bǔ)充說(shuō),年初中國(guó)利率走勢(shì)的不確定性也抑制了國(guó)內(nèi)活動(dòng),借款人及投資者都面臨著比預(yù)期更緊的貨幣狀況。中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)在春節(jié)黃金周過(guò)后收緊一系列貨幣市場(chǎng)利率,令市場(chǎng)驚訝。
“January was extremely uncertain but people are now more comfortable that China is not changing its policy to ‘tight’ straight from ‘easy’, but is more neutral,” said Mr Lai. Those jitters were enough to push onshore yields far higher, with three-year corporate bonds averaging 5.56 per cent this year compared with 4.63 per cent in the last quarter of 2016.
“1月的形勢(shì)極不確定,但現(xiàn)在人們更為放心:中國(guó)并沒(méi)有將政策由‘寬松’轉(zhuǎn)向‘緊縮’,而只是在更大程度上趨于‘中性’,”賴(lài)長(zhǎng)庚表示。那些緊張情緒已大幅推高在岸債市的收益率,今年以來(lái)三年期公司債券平均收益率達(dá)到5.56%,遠(yuǎn)高于2016年第四季度的4.63%。
Bankers do expect corporate China’s borrowing patterns to revert to type, with borrowing in the mainland outstripping foreign activity.
銀行家們確實(shí)預(yù)期中國(guó)企業(yè)的借款模式將恢復(fù)常規(guī),即在境內(nèi)借款超過(guò)境外。
‘This is temporary because the onshore bond market is experiencing something of a market correction with a significant shift in the yield curve,” said one banker.
“這是暫時(shí)的,因?yàn)樵诎秱袌?chǎng)正在經(jīng)歷某種市場(chǎng)回調(diào),收益率曲線出現(xiàn)顯著變化,”一位銀行家表示。