美國垃圾債券吸引大量資金
投資者正大舉買入一些風(fēng)險最高的公司債券，押注唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將會兌現(xiàn)提振經(jīng)濟、降低稅收和減少監(jiān)管的承諾。
Demand for junk-rated bonds has driven yields on debt with the lowest quality credit rating down towards 10 per cent as more than $10bn has flowed into funds that invest in the asset class since the start of December.
對垃圾級債券的旺盛需求，已把最劣質(zhì)信用評級的債務(wù)的收益率壓低至接近10%。自去年12月初以來，已有超過100億美元資金流入投資于這一資產(chǎn)類別的基金。
Borrowings by triple-C rated groups, among the lowest tier of the high-yield universe, have risen nearly two-thirds from a year earlier when the average yield for this part of the junk market peaked at 21.7 per cent. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
在高收益?zhèn)袌龅淖畹蛯哟?，CCC級企業(yè)的借款額比一年前增長近三分之二，那時這部分垃圾級市場的平均收益率達到21.7%的峰值。債券價格上升時收益率下降。
The current market rally has allowed the extension of credit to riskier borrowers at appealing terms, with high- yield groups raising $41bn in the US so far this year, including money to refinance older debt — the greatest amount in the same period since 2013, according to Dealogic.
當(dāng)前的市場漲勢使得風(fēng)險較高的借款人能夠以有吸引力的條款獲得信貸。Dealogic數(shù)據(jù)顯示，高收益?zhèn)瘓F今年迄今已在美國籌資410億美元(包括對舊債進行再融資的資金)，這是自2013年以來同期最大金額。
“People are more comfortable taking risk, driven by optimism around new policies and the risk-on mentality,” said Raman Srivastava, deputy chief investment officer of Standish Mellon Asset Management.
“出于對新政策的樂觀情緒和冒險心態(tài)，人們更樂于承擔(dān)風(fēng)險了，”Standish Mellon Asset Management副首席投資官拉曼•斯里瓦斯塔瓦(Raman Srivastava)表示。
Bullish investor sentiment, however, comes as warnings mount over the outlook for the $2.2tn US junk bond market, led by a looming $1tn “maturity wall” facing lower-rated companies over the next five years, a record level according to rating agency Moody’s.
然而，投資者情緒高漲之際，各方對2.2萬億美元的美國垃圾債券市場的前景發(fā)出一個又一個警告，尤其是未來五年期間低評級公司將迎來一堵1萬億美元的“到期墻”;據(jù)評級機構(gòu)穆迪(Moody’s)介紹，這將是一個創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。
The maturities peak in 2021, when more than $400bn of bonds and loans come due. At the same time, analysts at the credit agency warn ratings on the loans have “deteriorated significantly”.
到期債務(wù)將在2021年達到峰值，那年將有超過4000億美元的債券和貸款到期。與此同時，穆迪的分析師們警告，貸款的評級已“顯著惡化”。
“It is becoming impossible to ignore downside fundamental and political risks,” said Stephen Caprio, a strategist with UBS. “Bank and nonbank lending standards are not easing, credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising, bank commercial and industrial loan growth has stalled, and more protectionist sentiment is being underpriced in our view as a macro risk.”
“現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)不可能忽視基本面和政治方面的下行風(fēng)險，”瑞銀(UBS)策略師斯蒂芬•卡普里奧(Stephen Caprio)表示。“銀行和非銀行機構(gòu)的放貸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)沒有放松，信用卡和汽車貸款拖欠率不斷上升，銀行的商業(yè)和工業(yè)貸款增長陷入停滯，更具保護主義的情緒未被充分反映到價格上，我們認(rèn)為這是一個宏觀風(fēng)險。”
But lower corporate taxes promised by the new president would free up cash for interest payments by junk-rated companies, while a reduced regulatory burden could bolster margins, investors and strategists say.
但是，投資者和策略師們表示，新總統(tǒng)承諾的公司稅降低將釋放垃圾級公司的資金用于償付利息，而監(jiān)管負(fù)擔(dān)減輕有望提振利潤率。
Risk premiums on high-yield and investment grade corporate debt — a measure of the spread investors demand to hold those bonds over haven US Treasuries — have fallen to within 259 basis points of each other, Bank of America data shows.
美國銀行(Bank of America)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，高收益率和投資級公司債務(wù)的風(fēng)險溢價——衡量投資者為持有此類債券而要求的高出美國國債(被視為避風(fēng)港資產(chǎn))的息差——已收窄至259個基點以內(nèi)。
That is down from a peak of more than 650 bps a year ago, when a rapid fall in commodity prices and fears of a Chinese slowdown sparked broader market turmoil. “There was a lot of fear and loathing in the market last year,” said Mary Bowers, a portfolio manager with HSBC. “That has fallen into the background since Trump was elected.”
這遠(yuǎn)低于一年前超過650基點的峰值，當(dāng)時大宗商品價格迅速下降和對中國經(jīng)濟放緩的擔(dān)憂引發(fā)了整體市場動蕩。“去年市場充斥著恐懼和厭惡情緒，”匯豐(HSBC)的一名投資組合經(jīng)理瑪麗•鮑爾斯(Mary Bowers)表示。“自特朗普當(dāng)選以來，那已經(jīng)消失于背景中。”
