華爾街將成為特朗普上臺的贏家？

在智庫Z/Yen上月公布的全球金融中心排行榜中，倫敦位居榜首，略微領先于紐約。

Little surprise there: London has led several league tables in recent years. But when Z/Yen publishes its index in a couple of years’ time — in a Trumpian world — there is a good chance those rankings will have changed.

這沒有什么奇怪的：近些年，倫敦一直在多項類似榜單上占據(jù)榜首。但當Z/Yen幾年后(在特朗普時代)發(fā)布這一排行榜時，排名順序很可能將已發(fā)生改變。

For one point about last week’s US presidential election result is that Donald Trump’s policies are likely to make New York more attractive as a financial centre. And that could make London a relative loser — unless British authorities are ready to fight back.

美國大選結果的前景之一是，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的政策可能會讓紐約成為更有吸引力的金融中心。這可能讓倫敦成為相對的輸家——除非英國當局做好還擊的準備。

Why? The reason is not necessarily any deliberate “plan” Mr Trump holds for Wall Street; he does not seem to have one. He barely mentioned the financial sector on the campaign trail — and most bankers ignored him back. Indeed, the industry donated only $737,000 to him this year, compared with $78m for Hillary Clinton and $33m for Jeb Bush.

為何如此?原因不一定是他有任何刻意支持華爾街的“計劃”;他似乎沒有這樣的計劃。他在競選過程中幾乎沒有提到過金融行業(yè)——反過來，大多數(shù)銀行家也忽略了他。實際上，今年金融業(yè)對他的捐款僅為73.7萬美元，對希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)的捐款則分別為7800萬美元和3300萬美元。

But what could raise New York’s status is a confluence of four crucial factors.

但是，可能提高紐約地位的是四個關鍵因素的共同作用。

The first is obvious: London’s future is being undermined by uncertainties unleashed by Brexit. In public, international bankers insist London remains highly attractive. This week, for example, Jes Staley, Barclays chief executive, pointed to its “gravitational pull”. But in private, senior bankers are preparing to move at least some of their activities when Brexit hits. And, while continental European centres such as Frankfurt and Paris are pitching to grab business, many senior bankers say America looks more attractive, given its infrastructure, talent pool and flexible labour laws.

第一個是顯而易見的：英國脫歐引發(fā)的不確定性將損及倫敦的未來。在公開場合，國際銀行家們堅稱，倫敦仍具有很大的吸引力。比如在最近，巴克萊(Barclays)首席執(zhí)行官杰斯•斯特利(Jes Staley)指出了倫敦的“引力”。但在私下里，資深銀行家們正準備在英國正式脫歐時遷走至少部分業(yè)務。此外，盡管法蘭克福和巴黎等歐洲大陸的金融中心正在招攬業(yè)務，但許多資深銀行家表示，鑒于美國的基礎設施、人才庫和靈活的勞動法規(guī)，它看來吸引力更大。

“It is pretty unlikely anything like what we call ‘London’ could be replicated in the foreseeable future in one place in the EU,” Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, told the House of Lords last month. “But it already exists in New York.” Or as Mark Boleat, policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, observes: “The biggest beneficiary of any job losses in the UK will be New York.”

“在可以預見的未來，歐盟(EU)某個地方復制出我們所稱的‘倫敦’的可能性很低，”英國央行副行長喬恩•坎里夫(Jon Cunliffe)上月在英國國會上院(House of Lords)表示。“但是，紐約已具備倫敦的特點。”或者，正如倫敦金融城管理當局(City of London Corporation)政策主席包墨凱(Mark Boleat)所評述：“只要英國出現(xiàn)崗位流失，紐約就將成為最大受益者。”

However, Brexit is not the only factor here; a second is the regulatory and political climate. A decade ago Michael Bloomberg, then New York mayor, commissioned a McKinsey report that concluded London was grabbing business from New York because it had a more welcoming regulatory climate.

然而，脫歐并非唯一因素;第二個是監(jiān)管和政治環(huán)境。十年前，時任紐約市長邁克爾•布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)委托麥肯錫(McKinsey)做了一份報告，報告稱，由于監(jiān)管環(huán)境更友好，倫敦正從紐約那里搶走業(yè)務。

No longer. Since the 2008 crisis British regulators have, quite rightly, implemented reform. Bank levies have been imposed amid a political backlash. Of course, regulation has been tightened in America too; look at the hefty Dodd-Frank rules. But in America the bank-bashing has waned. And now Mr Trump’s policy team are not only muttering about rolling back some reforms; they are also considering bringing bankers into the administration. Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, has been mooted as possible Treasury secretary. The symbolism is profound.

如今情況不同了。自從2008年危機以來，英國監(jiān)管機構已非常正確地執(zhí)行了改革。銀行稅在政治反彈中出臺了。當然，美國的監(jiān)管也收緊了;看看長篇累牘的《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank)吧。但在美國，對銀行的抨擊已逐漸消失了?，F(xiàn)在，特朗普政策團隊不但正在私下討論著撤銷部分改革措施，而且也在考慮讓銀行家進入政府任職。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執(zhí)行官杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)已成為潛在財長的討論人選。其中的象征意義非常深遠。

A third factor is the health of banks. In recent years American banks have cleaned up their balance sheets and recapitalised themselves. The Europeans have lagged behind, which means American banks are resurgent on the world stage. This is likely to be magnified if Mr Trump loosens regulations. If the Federal Reserve raises rates next month — and Janet Yellen, Fed chair, hinted on Thursday that it would — that would bolster US banks’ fee income.

第三個因素是銀行的健康狀況。近年來，美國的銀行已清理了資產負債表，并注入了新資本。歐洲同行已落在后面，這意味著，美國的銀行在世界舞臺上重新崛起了。如果特朗普放松管制，這一點還可能放大。如果美聯(lián)儲(Fed)下月加息——美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)上周四暗示將加息——那將提振美國銀行業(yè)的費用收入。

The US economy is likely to grow, partly as a result of Mr Trump’s reflation plans, which could in itself provide a fourth supportive factor. After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services. In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.

部分得益于特朗普的刺激計劃，美國經(jīng)濟可能會增長。該計劃本身可能產生第四個支撐因素。畢竟，企業(yè)信心增強、企業(yè)活動增多通常會增加對于金融服務的需求。形成對照的是，在歐洲，經(jīng)濟低迷和頑固的政治分裂已損害了信心。

“Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move — the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary,” Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week. “As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.”

“任何可以遷到美國的業(yè)務，都會在未來幾年里遷到美國——美國最終將成為很大的受益者，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)總裁蓋瑞•柯恩(Gary Cohn)上周說。“至于在歐洲的(金融和商業(yè))投資，將會暫緩。”

Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch. If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty, or if Mr Trump unleashes a debt binge that goes bust, that will not create stability.

當然，有些歐洲觀察者將對此不予理會，認為這是自利的推銷說辭。如果特朗普的政策引發(fā)美國社會動蕩或地緣政治方面的不確定性，或者如果特朗普釋放出的債務泡沫后來破滅的話，這將不會帶來穩(wěn)定。

But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing of Wall Street. If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash some animal spirits of their own. Bickering about Brexit is not a good place to start.

但是，盡管這些風險是實實在在的，如今的關鍵點是：無論歐洲人如何看待特朗普，他們都需要承認，在紐約，動物精神正在上升，這可能會提振華爾街的金融業(yè)和地位。如果倫敦想要回擊，那么英國當局需要找到一條釋放自己的動物精神的途徑。為英國脫歐而爭吵不是好的起點。