繼特朗普勝選后勒龐會上臺嗎？

This time last year, I wrote that “I have a nightmare vision for 2017: President Trump, President Le Pen, President Putin.” So, after Donald Trump’s victory, the next question is whether Marine Le Pen can indeed capture the French presidency?

去年這個時候，我寫道，“我對2017年有一個噩夢般的想象：特朗普總統(tǒng)、勒龐總統(tǒng)，普京總統(tǒng)”。因此，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)獲勝后的下一個問題是，馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)是否能真能成為法國總統(tǒng)?

Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a run-off in May against either François Fillon or Alain Juppé. Both are Hillary Clinton-style establishment figures, who would be ideal opponents for the leader of the far-right.

在上周末中右翼陣營初選之后，勒龐看上去可能在明年5月份與弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)或阿蘭•朱佩(Alain Juppé)進(jìn)行終極對決。這兩人都是希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)式的建制派人物，將是極右翼領(lǐng)袖勒龐的理想對手。

The consequences of a victory for the far-right in France would be drastic for both European and world politics. A Le Pen presidency could well lead to the collapse of the EU. She wants to pull France out of the European single currency and to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.

如果極右翼在法國獲勝，將為歐洲和世界政治帶來非常嚴(yán)重的后果。勒龐當(dāng)上總統(tǒng)很可能導(dǎo)致歐盟(EU)的崩潰。她希望讓法國退出歐洲單一貨幣，并就法國是否留在歐盟舉行公投。

Even if Ms Le Pen softened her stance in office, it is hard to see how Angela Merkel’s Germany could work with a nationalist and authoritarian France. With Germany and France set on radically different paths, Franco-German antagonism would return to the heart of European politics.

即便勒龐上臺后軟化了自己的立場，也很難設(shè)想安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的德國如何能跟一個民族主義、威權(quán)主義的法國攜手合作。隨著德國和法國走上截然不同的道路，法德的對立將重回歐洲政治的中心。

The global implications of a Le Pen victory would also be severe. Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council would be occupied either by undemocratic governments (Russia and China), or by democracies led by nationalist rightwing leaders (US and France). Under such circumstances, the international legal order could crumble, as might once again became right.

勒龐獲勝對全球的影響也將是嚴(yán)重的。在聯(lián)合國(UN)安全理事會(Security Council)的五個常任理事國中，有四個將要么是非民主國家(俄羅斯和中國)，要么是由民族主義右翼領(lǐng)袖領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的民主國家(美國和法國)。在這種情況下，國際法律秩序可能崩潰，世界秩序可能再次向右轉(zhuǎn)。

Of course, even post-Brexit and post-Trump, there is nothing inevitable about a Le Pen victory in France. For what it is worth, the opinion polls still show her likely to lose decisively in the second round of the election. And although Ms Le Pen has moved to embrace the Trump White House and has been keenly supported by Mr Trump’s “alt-right” advisers, there are important differences between the Trump and Le Pen phenomenons.

當(dāng)然，即便在英國退歐和特朗普上臺之后，也不存在什么因素決定勒龐必然在法國獲得勝利。無論有多少參考價值，民意調(diào)查仍然表明，她可能會以明顯差距輸?shù)舻诙嗊x舉。雖然勒龐對特朗普政府表示了極大的歡迎，并且得到特朗普的“另類右翼”(alt-right)顧問的支持，但特朗普現(xiàn)象和勒龐現(xiàn)象之間存在著重大區(qū)別。

Unlike Mr Trump, the National Front has been around for decades and is more of a known quantity to voters. France’s bitter memories of the Vichy regime of the 1940s may also mean that the country is better inoculated against far-right politics than the US.

與特朗普不同的是，國民陣線(National Front)已經(jīng)存在了幾十年了，在更大程度上已經(jīng)為選民們所熟悉了。法國對上世紀(jì)40年代維希政權(quán)的痛苦記憶或許也意味著，比起美國，法國對極右政治更加免疫。

Set against that, however, is the possibility that French voters, who might have feared that a Le Pen presidency would turn their country into an international pariah, may now feel that Mr Trump’s victory has given them “permission” to vote for the far-right.

然而，與此相反的一種可能性是，曾擔(dān)心勒龐把法國變成國際社會“賤民”的該國選民，現(xiàn)在也許覺得，特朗普當(dāng)選讓他們獲得了投票支持極右翼的“許可證”。

The objective conditions for a turn towards authoritarian nationalism are clearly stronger in France than in the US. France has been subjected to savage terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists. There are large, poorly integrated Muslim populations in most big cities. Unemployment among the general population is over 10 per cent.

法國轉(zhuǎn)向威權(quán)民族主義顯然具備比美國更充分的客觀條件。法國遭到了伊斯蘭極端分子的野蠻恐怖主義襲擊。在大多數(shù)大城市中，存在著大量未融入當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣牡哪滤沽秩丝凇Ｈ珖側(cè)丝诘氖I(yè)率超過10%。

Above all, the political establishment is despised. The approval ratings of President François Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent. The political, social, economic and international environments could not be more favourable for Ms Le Pen.

最重要的是，政治建制派遭到鄙視。法國總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)的支持率最近創(chuàng)下4%的驚人低點。如今的政治、社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)和國際環(huán)境對勒龐都簡直不能更有利了。

In recent years, Ms Le Pen has moved to distance herself from her father, Jean-Marie, whose racist views are embarrassingly open. These days, Ms Le Pen’s rhetoric is indeed less inflammatory and dishonest than that of Mr Trump. But the French far-right leader has had her moments. She has, for example, compared Muslims praying in France’s streets with the Nazi occupation.

近年來，勒龐已跟父親讓-馬里•勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)撇清了干系，后者的種族主義觀點是公開的，讓人感到難堪。近來，勒龐的言論確實沒有像特朗普那樣煽動性十足和不誠實。但這位法國極右翼領(lǐng)袖也發(fā)表過令人瞠目結(jié)舌的言論。比如，她曾把在法國街頭祈禱的穆斯林與納粹占領(lǐng)軍相比。

On the other side of the channel, there might even be some in the British government who would quietly welcome the prospect of a far-right victory in France. While the current French government is leading the demands that Britain must pay a heavy price for Brexit, Ms Le Pen has applauded the British decision to quit the EU. A Le Pen victory might even solve the Brexit problem since there might no longer be an EU left for the UK to leave. Boris Johnson, UK foreign secretary, hailed the “opportunity” represented by the election of the pro-Brexit Mr Trump, and might sniff similar “opportunities” in the rise of Ms Le Pen.

在海峽對岸的英國，政府里甚至可能有些人會暗自希望極右翼在法國取勝。法國現(xiàn)政府帶頭要求英國必須為退歐付出沉重代價，而勒龐贊揚(yáng)了英國的退歐決定。也許勒龐獲勝甚至可能解決掉英國退歐問題，因為歐盟或許將從這個世界上消失。英國外交大臣鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)對支持英國退歐的特朗普勝選所代表的“機(jī)會”表示歡呼，他或許也在勒龐的崛起中嗅到了類似的“機(jī)會”。

More sober heads in London, however, must surely realise that the rise of the French far-right cannot ultimately be good news for Britain. A National Front victory in France would mean that the forces of authoritarian nationalism would be flourishing across Europe, from Moscow to Warsaw to Budapest and Paris. Under Mr Trump, the US could no longer be relied upon as a stabilising force to push back against political extremism in Europe.

然而，倫敦更多頭腦清醒的人們必須明白，法國極右翼的崛起最終肯定對英國不利。國民陣線在法國的勝利將意味著，威權(quán)民族主義將在整個歐洲抬頭——從莫斯科到華沙、再到布達(dá)佩斯和巴黎。在特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國再也不能像人們指望的那樣發(fā)揮穩(wěn)定作用、阻止歐洲政治極端主義興起了。

Instead, many in Europe are now looking towards Ms Merkel, who has just announced that she will be running for a fourth term as German chancellor, next year, as the anchor of European stability. But the challenges facing Ms Merkel are truly daunting. She confronts a hostile Russia to the East and a Middle East in flames to the south. Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous towards Ms Merkel.

相反，歐洲許多人目前正把目光投向默克爾，希望她能維系歐洲的穩(wěn)定。她剛剛宣布明年將參加競選，如果獲勝，將開始第四個總理任期。但是，默克爾面臨的挑戰(zhàn)確實很艱巨。德國東面有敵對的俄羅斯，南面是戰(zhàn)火連綿的中東。特朗普則一直公開對默克爾表示輕蔑。

Within the EU, Germany’s relations with southern Europe have been poisoned by the euro crisis, while its relations with eastern Europe have been soured by the refugee crisis. Meanwhile, Britain has voted to leave the bloc. The election of Ms Le Pen in France could be the final blow to the vision of Europe represented by Ms Merkel, and constructed by generations of European leaders, since the 1950s.

在歐盟內(nèi)部，德國與南歐的關(guān)系因歐元危機(jī)而惡化，與東歐的關(guān)系因難民危機(jī)而變壞。同時，英國已投票決定離開歐盟。若勒龐在法國當(dāng)選，可能對于由默克爾代表的、自1950年代以來幾代歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人構(gòu)建的歐洲愿景構(gòu)成最后一擊。