“蒜你狠”在中國卷土重來

The Dutch had Tulip mania in the 17th century, but the Chinese are grappling with a bubble in a bulb of a more pungent sort: garlic.

十七世紀(jì)，荷蘭曾出現(xiàn)對(duì)郁金香的狂熱炒作。如今，中國人正在應(yīng)對(duì)一場(chǎng)涉及一種更辛辣植物球莖的泡沫：大蒜泡沫。

Prices have almost doubled in the past year to a record as poor weather and a surge of interest from speculative buyers has turbocharged the market. Given China accounts for more than 80 per cent of the world’s garlic exports, importers are struggling.

過去一年里，中國的大蒜價(jià)格幾乎上漲了一倍，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，惡劣的天氣和投機(jī)性買家的興趣大增令大蒜市場(chǎng)變得異?；鸨？紤]到中國占全球大蒜出口的逾80%，大蒜進(jìn)口國目前的處境很艱難。

“I’ve just come back from China and you can’t buy [any garlic] now,” said Joey Dean of Denimpex, a fruit and vegetable trader in Amsterdam, “Big speculators with big amounts of money have bought quite a lot of volume.”

阿姆斯特丹水果蔬菜交易商Denimpex的喬伊•迪安(Joey Dean)表示：“我剛從中國回來，如今已經(jīng)買不到(任何大蒜)了。擁有大筆資金的大投機(jī)商已經(jīng)買走了相當(dāng)多數(shù)量的大蒜。”

There no garlic futures in China, but the renminbi price for the physical product started to rally in late 2015 after heavy rains, then snow, damaged the Chinese crop planted for the 2016 harvest. The jump in the price to a record drew in speculative buying, fanning the upward surge, according to analysts.

中國沒有大蒜期貨，不過，大蒜現(xiàn)貨的人民幣價(jià)格自2015年底開始上漲，因?yàn)槎鄨?chǎng)大雨及隨后下的雪對(duì)中國2016年收獲季的大蒜收成產(chǎn)生了破壞性影響。分析師認(rèn)為，大蒜價(jià)格躍升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平吸引來了投機(jī)性買盤，對(duì)上漲行情起到了推波助瀾的作用。

Garlic is predominantly grown in Shandong, an eastern province in China. Expectations of poor harvests have previously led to hoarding by locals, but money from Beijing and other large cities is now flowing into the market, according to Cui Xiaona, analyst at Sublime China Information Group, a commodity information service.

大蒜的主要種植區(qū)域是華東的山東省。卓創(chuàng)資訊(Sublime China Information Group)分析師崔曉娜稱，起初，是對(duì)收成不佳的預(yù)期導(dǎo)致了當(dāng)?shù)厝硕诜e大蒜，但現(xiàn)在，來自北京及其他大城市的資金正流入大蒜市場(chǎng)。卓創(chuàng)是一家大宗商品資訊服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)。

“This year many people knew that the garlic harvest was poor, so they thought, ‘well, I make money out of the price difference’. So many rushed to stock up on garlic,” she said.

她表示：“今年，許多人都知道大蒜收成不好，于是他們就想：‘我可以從價(jià)差中賺錢’。就這樣，許多人爭(zhēng)相囤積大蒜。”

Efforts by Chinese authorities to stabilise the country’s stock market by imposing curbs on equities trading last year has resulted money flowing instead into a wide range of commodities.

去年，中國當(dāng)局曾展開多次努力，試圖通過限制股票交易來穩(wěn)定中國股市。此舉導(dǎo)致資金轉(zhuǎn)而流入一系列大宗商品市場(chǎng)。

Garlic growers and merchants are no strangers to a rollercoaster ride. In 2009 and 2010, prices soared after speculators bought up bulbs following smaller planted acreage and a belief garlic would ward off swine flu. Prices are now higher than those seen between 2009 and 2010, according to Mintec, the commodities data firm.

中國的蒜農(nóng)和蒜商對(duì)這種“過山車”行情并不陌生。2009年和2010年，受種植面積縮減和所謂大蒜可預(yù)防豬流感的觀點(diǎn)影響，投機(jī)者大舉買入大蒜，導(dǎo)致蒜價(jià)飆升。大宗商品數(shù)據(jù)公司Mintec的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前的蒜價(jià)比2009年至2010年間的水平還要高。

Garlic has not been the only niche market targeted by China’s speculators. Mung beans, pickled walnuts and fermented black tea have at some point all fallen to the vagaries of “hot money”.

大蒜并不是中國投機(jī)者瞄準(zhǔn)的唯一一個(gè)利基市場(chǎng)。綠豆、紅茶都曾被變幻無常的“熱錢”左右。

The lack of supply and high prices have led to a decline in Chinese exports, which are at a four-year low. In the first seven months of this year, fresh garlic exports fell 12 per cent to 895,000 tonnes.

供應(yīng)短缺和高昂的價(jià)格已導(dǎo)致中國大蒜出口下滑。目前，中國的大蒜出口正處于四年低點(diǎn)。今年頭七個(gè)月，鮮蒜出口下滑了12%，至89.5萬噸。

The situation is even more acute in dried garlic, which is easier to store than fresh bulbs. Stricter environmental regulation has also meant that many processing factories have been taken out of commission, further reducing dried garlic supplies, according to Vinayak Narain, senior vice-president at agricultural trader Olam’s spices and vegetable ingredients business.

比鮮蒜更易儲(chǔ)存的干蒜面臨的形勢(shì)更加嚴(yán)峻。農(nóng)業(yè)交易商奧蘭(Olam)的香料及蔬菜配料業(yè)務(wù)高級(jí)副總裁維納亞克•納拉因(Vinayak Narain)稱，更加嚴(yán)格的環(huán)保監(jiān)管意味著，許多加工廠已被迫退出生產(chǎn)，干蒜的供應(yīng)將進(jìn)一步減少。

China accounts for almost 90 per cent of the world’s dried garlic exports that are mainly used in food manufacturing. The Chinese supply shortage has coincided with a shortfall in the crop in the US, another leading supplier.

中國干蒜出口占全球的近90%。干蒜主要用于食品加工。中國供應(yīng)短缺的同時(shí)，另一主要供應(yīng)國美國的供應(yīng)也出現(xiàn)了短缺。

Traders expect prices to remain firm in the near term.

交易商預(yù)計(jì)，蒜價(jià)在近期內(nèi)會(huì)保持堅(jiān)挺。

“If the next harvest is normal you are going to see this rollercoaster come down by the end the second quarter next year, said Mr Narain.

納拉因表示：“如果下一次收獲產(chǎn)量正常，你會(huì)看到這列過山車在明年第二季度末前回落。”