中國將讓地方養(yǎng)老基金入市

China’s local pension funds will launch a first wave of investment in the domestic stock market by the end of this year to try to lift returns before an ageing population becomes a drain on regional finances.

中國地方養(yǎng)老基金將最遲在今年底在國內(nèi)股市進行第一波投資，力求在人口老齡化拖累地區(qū)財政之前提高回報率。

The government has unveiled an ambitious scheme that could help local authorities counter record-low interest rates and reduce the Chinese equity market’s volatility.

政府發(fā)布了一個雄心勃勃的計劃，有望幫助地方政府克服創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率，同時降低中國股市的波動。

The human resources ministry said that a number of local governments had transferred assets to the National Social Security Fund, where managers have broader latitude to invest in riskier assets, including up to 40 per cent in equities and stock funds.

人力資源和社會保障部表示，一批地方政府已向全國社會保障基金(NSSF)轉移資產(chǎn);國家社會保障基金的管理人有更大的自由，可投資于風險較高的資產(chǎn)，包括至多40%的股票和股票基金。

This first wave will release between Rmb200bn-Rmb400bn ($30bn-$60bn) to be invested, according to analysts briefed on the details.

據(jù)聽取了相關介紹的一些分析師透露，第一波將釋放2000億至4000億元人民幣(合300億至600億美元)用于投資。

The government started drawing up plans for such transfers to the NSSF in June last year, amid investor panic that burst a Chinese stock market bubble.

政府在去年6月開始制定向全國社會保障基金進行此類資產(chǎn)轉移的計劃，當時投資者恐慌使中國股市泡沫破裂。

The expansion of the NSSF, which held Rmb1.9tn of assets in 2015, will increase its power in the domestic stock market, diminishing the influence of the army of retail investors and potentially creating a more stable flow of funds into stocks. If all provinces join the fund, that would mean up to Rmb2tn more could flow into equities.

全國社會保障基金在2015年持有1.9萬億元人民幣資產(chǎn);該基金的擴大將增加其在國內(nèi)股市的力量，減少散戶投資者大軍的影響力，潛在創(chuàng)建流入股市的更穩(wěn)定資金流。如果所有省份都加入該基金，那將意味著高達2萬億元人民幣可能投入股票。

“In theory, it’s a good thing to do and should increase returns,” said Stuart Leckie, Stirling Finance chairman, who has advised the government on pension reform. “But it was primarily done to support the stock market. They’re doing something good for the wrong reasons.”

“理論上這是一件好事，應該有助于提高回報，”向中國政府提供養(yǎng)老金改革咨詢的Stirling Finance公司的董事長李仕達(Stuart Leckie)表示，“但此舉主要是為了支持股市。他們正在出于錯誤的動機做正確的事。”

The Rmb5tn state pension funds managed by local governments are restricted to investing in safe assets such as bank deposits and government bonds. But these assets have had such low returns that local governments’ pension funds shrank in real terms over the past decade, at a time when more and more are nearing retirement.

由地方政府管理的5萬億元人民幣的政府養(yǎng)老基金，目前只能投資于銀行存款和政府債券等安全資產(chǎn)。但這些資產(chǎn)的回報率如此之低，以至于地方政府養(yǎng)老基金在過去10年里按實際價值計算出現(xiàn)縮水，與此同時有越來越多的人接近退休年齡。

Guangdong was the first province to entrust Rmb100bn of its pension assets to the NSSF in a pilot in 2012. The government did not disclose details of which local authorities are taking part in the first tranche.

廣東省在2012年率先向全國社會保障基金委托1000億元人民幣養(yǎng)老金資產(chǎn)，成為第一個試點省份。政府沒有公布哪幾個地方政府將參與第一波資產(chǎn)轉移的細節(jié)。

China’s old-age dependency ratio — the ratio of over 65s to those of working age — is set to double to 30 per cent by 2030: much faster than the rate of ageing for the world as a whole, according to the UN Population Division.

根據(jù)聯(lián)合國人口司(UN Population Division)的推算，到2030年，中國的老年撫養(yǎng)比(65歲以上人口與工作年齡人口之比)將翻一番，達到30%：這個老齡化速度遠遠高于世界整體水平。

The NSSF has achieved an average nominal return of nearly 9 per cent per year over the past 15 years, which it boasts matches the performance of the more experienced Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The NSSF was set up in 2000 in anticipation that struggling provinces in the north-east rust-belt would need help to meet their pension commitments.

全國社會保障基金在過去15年實現(xiàn)了每年近9%的平均名義回報率;該基金夸耀稱，這足以媲美經(jīng)驗更豐富的加拿大退休金計劃投資委員會(CPPIB)的表現(xiàn)。全國社會保障基金成立于2000年，背景是政府預計東北幾個境況不佳的老工業(yè)省份在履行養(yǎng)老金承諾方面將需要幫助。

Some economists believe the reforms are not enough to secure pensioners’ livelihoods. “I no longer think the Chinese system can be reformed,” said Peter Diamond, a Nobel Prize winner in economics who co-authored a book on Chinese pension reform. “It must be taken apart and built back from the ground up.”

一些經(jīng)濟學家認為，這些改革不足以保障養(yǎng)老金領取者的生計。“我不再認為中國的體制可以改革，”諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎得主、曾就中國養(yǎng)老金改革與人合著一本書的彼得•戴蒙德(Peter Diamond)表示，“它必須被拆解開，然后從頭開始重建。”

“This is the first time we’ve seen a country this size go through a demographic transition so quickly,” said Wen Tan of Aberdeen Asset Management. “There will need to be government injections at some point.”

“這是我們第一次看到如此規(guī)模的國家經(jīng)歷這么快的人口結構轉變，”安本資產(chǎn)管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)的Wen Tan表示，“在某個時點將會需要政府注資。”