杜特爾特在訪日期間淡化靠攏中國(guó)

Rodrigo Duterte blasted the US but played down his shift towards China as the outspoken Philippine president sent mixed messages on a visit to Japan.

羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)猛烈抨擊美國(guó)，但同時(shí)也淡化了他向中國(guó)的靠攏。這位直言不諱的菲律賓總統(tǒng)在訪問(wèn)日本時(shí)發(fā)出混合的信息。

Addressing an audience of Japanese executives — among the biggest investors in the Philippines — Mr Duterte repeated his threat to break off defence agreements with the US and expel foreign troops from the archipelago.

在對(duì)一群日本高管——包括菲律賓一些最大的外商投資者——發(fā)表講話時(shí)，杜特爾特重復(fù)了他的威脅，即撕毀與美國(guó)之間的防務(wù)協(xié)議，把外國(guó)軍隊(duì)趕出菲律賓群島。

But he said his visit to China last week, where he announced the Philippines’ “separation” from the US, signalled an independent foreign policy rather than a new alliance with Beijing.

但他表示，他上周訪問(wèn)中國(guó)——其間他宣布菲律賓與美國(guó)“分離”——標(biāo)志著獨(dú)立外交政策，而不是與北京結(jié)成新聯(lián)盟。

Mr Duterte’s remarks add to the confusion about his intentions towards the US and will do little to reassure Tokyo, which is alarmed at the sight of Manila, its vital strategic partner, feuding with its indispensable ally.

杜特爾特的言論增加了外界對(duì)于他對(duì)美國(guó)意圖的困惑，而且無(wú)助于讓東京方面放心;東京方面震驚地看到日本的關(guān)鍵戰(zhàn)略伙伴與日本不可或缺的盟友之間出現(xiàn)不和。

“I went to China for a visit and I would like to assure you that all there was, was economics,” he told the Japan External Trade Organisation. “We did not talk about arms, we did not talk about stationing of troops, we avoided talking about alliances, military or otherwise.”

“我去中國(guó)作了一次訪問(wèn)，我想向你保證，一切都只是經(jīng)濟(jì)，”他告訴日本貿(mào)易振興機(jī)構(gòu)(Japan External Trade Organization)，“我們沒有談?wù)撐淦?，我們沒有談?wù)撥婈?duì)駐扎。我們避免談?wù)撀?lián)盟、軍事等等。”

China and the Philippines signed 13 agreements last week amounting to a notional $13.5bn in trade and investment. In a dramatic month of diplomacy, Mr Duterte has reshaped Manila’s stance towards Beijing, all but setting aside an international court’s ruling in favour of the Philippines over disputed waters in the South China Sea.

中國(guó)和菲律賓上周簽署了13項(xiàng)協(xié)議，名義上相當(dāng)于135億美元的貿(mào)易和投資。在一個(gè)月的戲劇性外交活動(dòng)中，杜特爾特重塑了馬尼拉對(duì)北京的立場(chǎng)，基本上擱置了國(guó)際仲裁法院圍繞南中國(guó)海爭(zhēng)議水域作出的對(duì)菲律賓有利的裁決。

He repeated his harsh words towards the US, saying the Philippines was not “a dog on a leash” and pledging to get foreign troops out of the country within two years. However, Mr Duterte has yet to take any concrete action after similar remarks in the past.

他重復(fù)了針對(duì)美國(guó)的尖銳措辭，稱菲律賓不是“一條用繩子拴著的狗”，并承諾在兩年內(nèi)讓外國(guó)軍隊(duì)撤出該國(guó)。然而，杜特爾特在以往發(fā)表類似言論后至今沒有采取任何具體行動(dòng)。

In contrast to his attitude to the Philippines’ former colonial master, Mr Duterte has had warm words for Japan, despite the wartime history between the countries. He has repeatedly thanked Japan for its record of development aid and called the country a longstanding friend. He urged Japanese companies to invest more in the Philippines.

與他對(duì)菲律賓曾經(jīng)的殖民宗主國(guó)的態(tài)度不同，杜特爾特對(duì)日本熱情洋溢，盡管兩國(guó)之間有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)歷史。他一再感謝日本一直以來(lái)的發(fā)展援助，并稱日本是一個(gè)老朋友。他敦促日本公司在菲律賓加大投資。

Speaking to a group of Japanese parliamentarians, Mr Duterte seemed to go further and say Manila and Tokyo had common security interests in regard to Beijing. “When China grows bigger, it could clash with the United States,” he was quoted by local media as saying. “We are in the same position with regard to China so we should join hands.”

杜特爾特在向一群日本議員發(fā)表講話時(shí)似乎更進(jìn)一步，表示馬尼拉和東京針對(duì)北京有著共同的安全利益。“當(dāng)中國(guó)強(qiáng)大起來(lái)之后，它可能與美國(guó)發(fā)生沖突，”日本媒體援引他的話稱，“我們?cè)趯?duì)華問(wèn)題上有著共同的立場(chǎng)，應(yīng)該攜起手來(lái)。”

At an evening summit meeting, Mr Duterte and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe discussed the significance of their US alliances to Asian security, the South China Sea and Mr Duterte’s violent anti-narcotics campaign in the Philippines.

杜特爾特昨晚會(huì)晤日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)，討論盟國(guó)美國(guó)對(duì)亞洲安全的重要性、南中國(guó)海及杜特爾特嚴(yán)厲掃毒等議題。

The leaders also “acknowledged” the court ruling on the South China Sea, a priority for Japan. “The Philippines will uphold the value of democracy, adherence to the rule of law and the peaceful settlement of disputes including in the South China Sea,” said Mr Duterte, following the summit.

杜特爾特與安倍還表示“承認(rèn)” 仲裁法庭對(duì)南中國(guó)海的裁決，這對(duì)日本是一優(yōu)先考慮之事。二人會(huì)晤后，杜特爾特說(shuō)：“菲律賓將堅(jiān)持民主價(jià)值，堅(jiān)持法治及和平解決包括南中國(guó)海在內(nèi)的爭(zhēng)端。”

However, Yuko Kasuya, an expert on Philippine politics at Keio University in Tokyo, said Japan would struggle to keep Mr Duterte out of Beijing’s orbit or to act as a bridge between Manila and Washington. “The overall presence and the future prospect of Chinese business and markets for the entire country is far greater than that of Japan. Militarily, Japan’s support is negligible,” said Ms Kasuya. “Probably what Japan can do is to expect the unexpected.”

然而，東京慶應(yīng)義塾大學(xué)(Keio University)的菲律賓政治專家粕谷祐子(Yuko Kasuya)表示，日本將難以使杜特爾特不被拉入北京的軌道，也難以充當(dāng)馬尼拉和華盛頓之間的橋梁。“對(duì)于整個(gè)國(guó)家，中國(guó)企業(yè)和市場(chǎng)的總體存在和未來(lái)前景遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)日本。在軍事上，日本的支持微不足道，”粕谷祐子表示，“日本可以做的很可能就是期待會(huì)發(fā)生意想不到的事情。”