不該嘲笑“逃離地球”之夢(mèng)

Since the end of the 30-year US space shuttle programme in 2011, manned space flight has dwindled to a series of mundane but bone-shaking bus-rides on Russian rockets up to the International Space Station in low Earth orbit. True, Nasa, still by far the world’s largest space agency, is developing a new generation of manned spacecraft. But a working prototype — let alone a new Apollo-style programme — is many years away.

2011年美國結(jié)束為期30年的航天飛機(jī)計(jì)劃以后，載人太空飛行就只剩下了一系列尋常而顛簸的搭載俄羅斯火箭前往在低地軌道運(yùn)行的國際空間站的太空巴士航行。沒錯(cuò)，作為一直以來全世界最大的航天機(jī)構(gòu)，美國國家航空航天局(Nasa)正在研發(fā)新一代載人飛行器。但是造出一架可投入使用的原型機(jī)還需要許多年的時(shí)間，更不用說提出一項(xiàng)可與“阿波羅計(jì)劃”相提并論的新航天計(jì)劃了。

Logically, this hiatus should provide an opportunity to rethink the whole purpose of sending people into space, an environment so profoundly hostile that huge sums have to be spent making travel beyond the Earth’s atmosphere even remotely safe. But too many Americans still feel a compulsion to spend billions of tax dollars on manned space flight for a re-evaluation to be politically feasible. When, in 2010, President Barack Obama scrapped the Constellation programme that would have taken the US back to the moon by the next decade, the storm of protest was intense.

按理說這個(gè)間隙是個(gè)很好的時(shí)機(jī)，我們正好反思把人類送入太空究竟有何意義，畢竟太空環(huán)境極其惡劣，僅僅是為了保證飛越地球大氣層的航行具有絲毫的安全性就需要投入龐大資金。但是美國仍然有太多人懷著沖動(dòng)，希望投入巨額納稅人資金對(duì)載人太空飛行進(jìn)行重新評(píng)估，使其具有政治可行性。2010年美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)取消在下個(gè)10年重返月球的“星座計(jì)劃”時(shí)，就引發(fā)了強(qiáng)烈的抗議浪潮。

The latest to capitalise on the inchoate desire to slip Earth’s “surly bonds” is the Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Elon Musk. He has come forward with a plan to revive the dream of interplanetary travel, proposing a reusable spaceship that he estimates that could travel between Earth and Mars in three months, starting sometime in the 2020s. This would be the first step to building a larger fleet and ultimately establishing colonies on other planets. In Mr Musk’s view, that could allow mankind to become a “multi-planet species” — thus cheating its inevitable extinction on Earth.

最新一位想要利用人類尚處于早期階段的渴望擺脫地球“粗暴羈絆”心理的是硅谷企業(yè)家埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)，他提出了一項(xiàng)讓星際旅行夢(mèng)想復(fù)活的計(jì)劃：建造一艘可以重復(fù)使用的宇宙飛船，它可以在3個(gè)月時(shí)間內(nèi)來往于地球和火星之間，在2020年至2030年之間的某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)開始投入使用。這將是打造一支更龐大飛船艦隊(duì)的第一步，最終目標(biāo)是在其他星球建立殖民地。在馬斯克看來，這將使人類成為“多星球物種”，以此逃離在地球上不可避免的滅絕命運(yùn)。

These are, of course, intoxicating visions. But they also raise questions about the merit of prioritising what remains, surely, a very long-term objective. Mr Musk’s project depends on technologies not yet in existence, whether propulsion systems or the means to protect any interplanetary craft’s human cargo against the impact of radiation in deeper space. It would require partnerships with the public sector — not least Nasa — that could cost very many billions of taxpayers’ money. Then there is the risk of failure damaging confidence in manned space flight for the longer-term future. It is worth remembering that SpaceX’s own record is not flawless. Two of its unmanned rockets recently blew up, one during a routine refuelling exercise earlier this month.

這樣的愿景當(dāng)然令人神往，但也不免讓人心生疑問：把一個(gè)仍然十分長遠(yuǎn)的目標(biāo)當(dāng)作優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)來處理是否可取?馬斯克的計(jì)劃取決于目前尚未發(fā)明出來的技術(shù)，無論是推進(jìn)系統(tǒng)，還是保護(hù)星際飛船所載人員免受深層太空輻射影響的技術(shù)。這將需要與公共部門(尤其是Nasa)合作，也就是說可能會(huì)耗費(fèi)數(shù)量巨大的納稅人資金。況且如果計(jì)劃失敗，可能會(huì)在未來很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)影響人們對(duì)載人航天飛行的信心。應(yīng)當(dāng)記住的是，SpaceX本身的記錄并不完美。該公司近期有兩枚無人火箭炸毀，其中一枚是本月早些時(shí)候在進(jìn)行燃料補(bǔ)給的常規(guī)操作時(shí)爆炸的。

There is nothing wrong about bringing in private sector capital and know-how to back space exploration. Mr Musk’s SpaceX has, through some clever innovations, helped to bring down the cost of putting unmanned payloads into space. But manned space flight remains a grossly extravagant endeavour on any rational evaluation of the scientific benefits, which are often mentioned as its justification. If past funds had instead been invested in unmanned exploration and space science, we would know far more about our solar system, and indeed the universe, than we do today.

引入私營部門資本及技術(shù)支持太空探索沒有錯(cuò)。通過一些巧妙的創(chuàng)新，馬斯克的SpaceX幫助降低了把無人航天器送入太空的成本。但是，根據(jù)對(duì)相關(guān)的科學(xué)益處(這也往往被視作該領(lǐng)域研究的正當(dāng)理由)進(jìn)行的合理評(píng)估，載人航天飛行仍然是一項(xiàng)非常奢侈的嘗試。如果過去用于該領(lǐng)域的資金投入無人探索和空間科學(xué)，我們對(duì)太陽系、乃至宇宙的了解會(huì)比現(xiàn)在多得多。

Apart from national pride, the real reasons for manned space flight are those outlined by Mr Musk in his presentation. Advocates talk about the benefits of international collaboration and inspiring the young. But above all, there is the human spirit of adventure, the idea that our “manifest destiny” is to move out from the Earth to explore — and ultimately to colonise — the solar system and the galaxy. This long-term vision lay behind Apollo in the 1960s and also underpins Mr Musk’s interplanetary vision. While many people will now regard it as more fantastic than inspiring, it remains the best justification for sending people into space.

除了國家自豪感，載人航天飛行的真正原因正是馬斯克在其演講中所闡述的那些。支持者們談?wù)搰H合作的好處以及對(duì)年輕人的激勵(lì)作用。但最重要的是人類的冒險(xiǎn)精神，我們相信我們的天賦使命是走出地球，探索太陽系和銀河系，并最終在其他星球進(jìn)行殖民。這個(gè)長遠(yuǎn)的愿景既是上世紀(jì)60年代阿波羅計(jì)劃啟動(dòng)的背后原因，也支撐著馬斯克的星際旅行夢(mèng)想。盡管現(xiàn)在很多人會(huì)認(rèn)為這個(gè)愿景與其說激動(dòng)人心不如說不切實(shí)際，但是它仍然是將人類送入太空的最佳理由。