影響油價下一步走勢的五個因素

As the price of crude oil reaches its highest level ofthe year, traders are split over whether the rally ofalmost 80 per cent since prices bottomed in Januarycan keep going.

在油價處于年內(nèi)最高點之際，交易員們對于這輪漲勢能否持續(xù)看法不一。原油價格自1月觸底后，已反彈近80%。

With the price of Brent, the international benchmark,and US West Texas Intermediate, rising strongly,five factors could dictate the next move.

國際基準布倫特原油(Brent)以及美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(West Texas Intermediate)的價格正在強勁上漲，下一步走勢如何，可能要看五個因素：

Nigeria and other troubled Opec producers

尼日利亞，還有其他陷入困境的歐佩克(OPEC)產(chǎn)油國

The latest leg-up in prices comes as output in Nigeria, which used to be Africa’s largestproducer, has fallen to the lowest level in more than 20 years.

支撐油價上漲的最新一個利好是，昔日非洲最大的產(chǎn)油國尼日利亞的石油產(chǎn)量降至逾20年來的最低水平。

Militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger delta have slashed the Opec member’s output tobelow 1.4m barrels a day — a drop of more than 40 per cent from its recent peak — andreignited fears of prolonged unrest.

武裝分子不斷襲擊尼日爾三角洲的石油設(shè)施，致使尼日利亞石油日產(chǎn)量降至140萬桶以下——較近年產(chǎn)量峰值下滑40%以上——同時再次引發(fā)了人們對尼日利亞會長期陷入動亂的擔憂。

In Libya output remains depressed, while in Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has declared a60-day state of emergency.

利比亞的石油產(chǎn)量仍然低迷，與此同時，委內(nèi)瑞拉總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯•馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)宣布該國進入為期60天的緊急狀態(tài)。

Supply disruptions

供應(yīng)中斷

It is not only weak Opec countries that are struggling to maintain output. Wildfires in Albertahave knocked out about 1m barrels a day or more than a fifth of Canada’s production.

并非只有疲弱的歐佩克國家正在艱難地維持產(chǎn)量。阿爾伯塔省(Alberta)的森林大火使加拿大石油日產(chǎn)量減少約100萬桶，相當于全國產(chǎn)量的五分之一以上。

Supplies are also being hit by the lower price. Output in the US, which drove the creation of theglut in the years before the price crash, has fallen more than 500,000 b/d from a peak of 9.7mb/d 13 months ago.

供應(yīng)也受到了低油價的沖擊。在油價暴跌之前，美國石油市場處于供應(yīng)過剩的狀態(tài)，而目前美國石油日產(chǎn)量較13個月前的峰值970萬桶減少了逾50萬桶。

In China, still a big source of demand growth, output is set to slip more than 3 per cent, or140,000 b/d, this year, according to Opec’s monthly report.

根據(jù)歐佩克的月度報告，中國仍然是全球石油需求增長的一大來源，預(yù)計今年其日均產(chǎn)量將下滑逾3%，或14萬桶。

Disruptions, which analysts put at more than 3m b/d, have helped put the market into, or closeto, a deficit for the first time in more than two years.

供應(yīng)中斷——分析師估計超過300萬桶/日——有助于推動石油市場在兩年多的時間里首次進入(或接近于)供小于求的狀態(tài)。

Saudi Arabia

沙特阿拉伯

Is the Opec kingpin going to raise output? That is perhaps the biggest question dogging oilmarkets in the medium term. With the replacement of veteran oil minister Ali al-Naimi thismonth, cementing deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s control over the sector,traders are nervously watching for any sign of higher output .

這個歐佩克核心國會增產(chǎn)嗎?這或許是中期內(nèi)困擾石油市場的最大問題。沙特經(jīng)驗豐富的石油部長阿里•納伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)本月離任，副王儲穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)進一步鞏固了對石油部門的控制，在這種情況下交易員正緊張關(guān)注著沙特任何可能要增產(chǎn)的跡象。

Saudi Arabia, the only country with significant spare capacity, has made clear its belief thatthe lowest-cost producers should pump the most.

作為唯一擁有大量備用產(chǎn)能的國家，沙特已經(jīng)明確表態(tài)：成本最低的產(chǎn)油國應(yīng)該輸出最多的石油。

But after raising output from 9.6m b/d in late 2014 to a record 10.6m b/d last June, its outputhas been steady. Since August 2015 production has averaged 10.2m b/d with littlefluctuation.

但是，在將日產(chǎn)量從2014年末的960萬桶增加至去年6月的歷史最高水平1060萬桶后，其產(chǎn)量便保持穩(wěn)定。自2015年8月以來，沙特石油產(chǎn)量平均為每日1020萬桶，幾乎沒有波動。

Khalid al-Falih, the new oil minister, has promised “stability” in policymaking, but alsoemphasised Saudi Arabia’s ability to use its “maximum sustainable capacity” to meet demand.

沙特新任石油部長哈立德•法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)承諾在政策上保持“穩(wěn)定”，但是也強調(diào)了沙特利用其“最大可持續(xù)產(chǎn)能”來滿足需求的能力。

US shale

美國頁巖油

The average annual crude oil output from the US is forecast to fall from a peak of 9.4m b/dlast year to 8.2m b/d in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration.

根據(jù)美國能源信息署(EIA)的預(yù)測，美國原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將從去年每日940萬桶的峰值，下滑至2017年的日均820萬桶。

Amid higher prices the agency has trimmed the expected drop by 100,000 b/d since priceswere below $40 a barrel. Nearer $50 the outlook is less clear.

比起油價處于每桶40美元以下的時候，該機構(gòu)已將美國日產(chǎn)量減少的預(yù)期規(guī)模下調(diào)了10萬桶。油價越接近50美元/桶，前景越不明朗。

Some oil companies have said they could restart drilling above $50 a barrel. But the impact ofany price rise may come quicker through the futures market. Banks will ask companies tohedge as soon as the price is high enough to keep their operations going. That will probablyput the brakes on any price rises as companies sell forward their production.

一些石油企業(yè)稱，當油價上漲至每桶50美元以上，它們可能會恢復(fù)鉆井作業(yè)。但是油價上漲的影響可能會通過期貨市場更快地顯現(xiàn)。一旦油價上漲至足以維持作業(yè)的水平，銀行將要求企業(yè)進行對沖。由于石油企業(yè)提前出售產(chǎn)量，這可能將對油價上漲構(gòu)成阻礙。

Hedge funds

對沖基金

When oil prices hit a floor below $30 in January, hedge funds started buying. In the first 19weeks of the year money managers were net buyers of Brent crude, building a near-recordposition equivalent to 420m barrels.

今年1月油價觸及30美元以下的谷底時，對沖基金開始買入。在今年的前19周內(nèi)，資產(chǎn)管理公司一直是布倫特原油的凈買家，建立了接近紀錄高點的倉位，相當于4.2億桶。

The move was largely replicated in WTI, where net longs rose to almost 250m barrels.

WTI原油市場的情況也基本一樣，凈多頭增至將近2.5億桶。