布魯塞爾恐襲留下的教訓(xùn)

On Sunday morning, I was in Brussels at aconference organised by the German Marshall Fund.The city was tense, following the arrest a couple ofdays earlier of Salah Abdeslam, a leading suspect inthe Paris bombings in November, although nobodycould foresee that, two days later, Brussels itselfwould come under attack.

最近，我在布魯塞爾參加德國(guó)馬歇爾基金會(huì)(GermanMarshall Fund)組織的一場(chǎng)會(huì)議。就在會(huì)議的幾天前，去年11月巴黎爆炸案的主要嫌疑人之一薩拉赫•阿卜杜勒-薩拉姆(Salah Abdeslam)在此落網(wǎng)，整個(gè)城市都處在緊張氛圍中，但當(dāng)時(shí)沒人能預(yù)見到，兩天后布魯塞爾自身也將成為襲擊目標(biāo)。

In retrospect, the Sunday morning session at the GMF conference was focused on issues thatnow seem even more urgent. One of the speakers was Yves Goldstein, who runs the office of thepresident of the Brussels regional government.

現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，那次會(huì)議所聚焦的問(wèn)題如今顯得更加緊迫了。會(huì)上的發(fā)言者包括伊夫•戈德斯坦(YvesGoldstein)，他是布魯塞爾首都大區(qū)政府主席辦公室的負(fù)責(zé)人。

Mr Goldstein pointed out that the population of Brussels is 25 per cent Muslim. He insisted,with evident sincerity, that the mixed nature of the city, which has French, Flemish and EUquarters, was a source of cultural richness. But he also argued that Brussels faces its mostserious security problem since the second world war since, as he explained, a substantialproportion of the young Muslim population of Brussels, regarded Isis terrorists as “heroes”.

戈德斯坦指出，布魯塞爾25%的人口是穆斯林。他由衷地表示，這座城市(有法語(yǔ)區(qū)、佛蘭芒語(yǔ)區(qū)及歐盟區(qū))多元混合的性質(zhì)是其文化繁榮的根源之一。但他也承認(rèn)，布魯塞爾面臨著二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的安全問(wèn)題，因?yàn)椴剪斎麪栍邢喈?dāng)比例的年輕穆斯林人口將“伊斯蘭國(guó)”(ISIS)恐怖分子視為“英雄”。

As Mr Goldstein pointed out, the fact that Salah Abdeslam had been able to hide in Brusselsundetected for four months after the Paris attacks shows that there is a substantial networkof people prepared to help terrorist suspects.

正如戈德斯坦所指出的，薩拉赫能夠在巴黎恐襲發(fā)生后在布魯塞爾藏匿4個(gè)月而未被發(fā)現(xiàn)的事實(shí)表明，這里有一個(gè)巨大的人員網(wǎng)絡(luò)為恐怖分子疑犯提供幫助。

These facts should provide some insight into the lessons that can be learned from the Brusselsattacks. The two most important things that need to be improved are long term in nature —integration and intelligence.

這些事實(shí)應(yīng)該可以讓我們進(jìn)一步理解布魯塞爾恐襲帶來(lái)的教訓(xùn)。我們需要改善的兩大方面——社群融合和情報(bào)——都是長(zhǎng)期性的。

At the moment, there is considerable focus on the specific intelligence failures that led theBelgians to fail to roll up a large jihadist network that seems to have been behind the Parisand Brussels attacks. But building up effective intelligence networks is long-term work thatrequires years of effort.

目前，人們大都專注于一些具體的情報(bào)短板，情報(bào)工作不力導(dǎo)致比利時(shí)人未能發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)大型圣戰(zhàn)分子網(wǎng)絡(luò)，巴黎和布魯塞爾恐襲似乎就是該網(wǎng)絡(luò)成員制造的。但建立有效的情報(bào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)是一項(xiàng)需要多年努力的長(zhǎng)期工作。

In this respect, the Belgians might be able to learn from the kind of work the Britishintelligence services did after the London bombings of 2005. The UK’s security agencies haveworked on building up networks of intelligence assistants in the Muslim community,particularly among young people and those who attend mosques that host radical preachers.

在這方面，比利時(shí)人可以借鑒英國(guó)情報(bào)部門在2005年倫敦爆炸案后的做法。英國(guó)安全機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)致力于在穆斯林社區(qū)——尤其是在年輕人以及那些到由激進(jìn)阿訇主持的清真寺做禮拜的穆斯林中間——建立情報(bào)人員網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

The hope is that those intelligence operatives can usually pick up information about fugitivejihadis or radical networks before they strike. The British feel that, as a result, they are nowmost vulnerable to “lone wolf” attackers, who are not part of a network. The Belgians, bycontrast, have obviously not been able to penetrate jihadi networks in the ways that areurgently required.

這么做是希望那些情報(bào)人員能在逃亡的圣戰(zhàn)分子或激進(jìn)組織發(fā)動(dòng)襲擊前截獲相關(guān)情報(bào)。因此，英國(guó)人認(rèn)為自己現(xiàn)在最容易遭受的襲擊是由不屬于恐怖網(wǎng)絡(luò)的“獨(dú)狼”發(fā)動(dòng)的襲擊。相比之下，比利時(shí)人顯然還未能以迫切需要的方式滲透進(jìn)圣戰(zhàn)分子網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

The intelligence task is closely related to the second issue — integration. It is much easierto recruit informants if a substantial part of the community feels attached to the widersociety as a whole. The more isolated the Muslim community is, the more likely it is thatradical ideologies can take root.

情報(bào)工作與社群融合密切相關(guān)。如果一個(gè)社區(qū)的大多數(shù)人都感覺能與整個(gè)社會(huì)融為一體，那招募線人就會(huì)容易得多。穆斯林社區(qū)越孤立，激進(jìn)思想就越有可能扎根。

The problem is only partly economic. Over the weekend, I visited Molenbeek, the now notoriousBrussels neighbourhood, in which Mr Abdeslam was arrested. Although unemployment ratesare said to be high there, it is not an obviously poverty-stricken area. There are plenty of smallbusinesses and cafés and people bustling around on the streets. But although the district is a10-minute drive from the European quarter and the museum district in Brussels, culturally itfeels distant. Making Molenbeek and the rest of Muslim Brussels feel much more closelyconnected to the rest of Belgian society will be the work of many years.

經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題只是部分原因。那個(gè)周末，我去了布魯塞爾如今臭名昭著的莫倫貝克(Molenbeek)區(qū)，薩拉赫就是在這里被捕的。雖然據(jù)說(shuō)這里失業(yè)率很高，但顯然并非一貧如洗。這里有很多小商店、咖啡館，街道上人群熙熙攘攘。盡管該區(qū)距布魯塞爾的歐洲區(qū)和博物館區(qū)僅有10分鐘車程，但文化上感覺差異很大。讓莫倫貝克區(qū)及布魯塞爾的其他穆斯林社區(qū)與整個(gè)比利時(shí)社會(huì)更緊密地聯(lián)系在一起，將需要許多年的努力。