奧巴馬訪問(wèn)古巴有助于提升美國(guó)地位

For once, the word “historic” is not hyperbole.Barack Obama’s visit to Havana, which began onSunday, is the first trip by a sitting US president toCuba in more than 88 years. More significantly, itaims to cement his 15-month-old policy ofrapprochement and engagement with the island.By reversing more than half a century of bullyboytactics, this also buttresses US standing in theregion.

這一次，“歷史性”這個(gè)詞絕不夸張。巴拉克•奧巴馬(BarackObama)周日開(kāi)始的哈瓦那之行，是在任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)逾88年來(lái)首次訪問(wèn)古巴。更具重大意義的是，此行將力求夯實(shí)奧巴馬推行已15個(gè)月的與島國(guó)古巴和解與接觸的政策。通過(guò)逆轉(zhuǎn)持續(xù)半個(gè)多世紀(jì)的“以大欺小”戰(zhàn)術(shù)，此舉還有助于提升美國(guó)在地區(qū)的地位。

Through executive order, Mr Obama has punched several holes in the embargo, although itcan only be fully lifted by Congress. The US has removed Cuba from its list of state sponsors ofterror. Commercial flights have been agreed; up to 110 a day are allowed. Travel restrictionson US visitors have been lifted.

借助行政命令，奧巴馬在禁運(yùn)之墻上打穿了幾個(gè)洞，盡管只有美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)才能完全解除禁運(yùn)。美國(guó)已經(jīng)把古巴從支持恐怖主義國(guó)家的名單上移除。有關(guān)商業(yè)航班的協(xié)議已經(jīng)達(dá)成;每天允許執(zhí)行多達(dá)110個(gè)航班。針對(duì)美國(guó)人訪問(wèn)古巴的限制已被取消。

This week, among other measures, the use of the dollar was decriminalised, obviating Cuba’sneed for complex third-currency operations and so facilitating business. To the extent this alsohelps ordinary Cubans make their livelihood in ways that do not depend on the state, it is to bewelcomed.

本周，除其他措施外，使用美元被合法化，使古巴不再需要復(fù)雜的第三種貨幣操作，給商業(yè)活動(dòng)帶來(lái)便利。此舉也有助于古巴普通人以不依賴于國(guó)家的方式謀生，就此而言，這是值得歡迎的。

Most dramatically, “regime change” is no longer an objective. The island’s future, as MrObama has stated, is up to Cubans to decide. This also offers the only plausible parallelbetween Mr Obama’s trip and Calvin Coolidge’s in 1928. Back then, Coolidge sought towithdraw the US from intimate management of island affairs on the basis that if Cubans wantto make difficulties for themselves, was it not fairer to let them?

最具戲劇性的是，“政權(quán)更迭”已不再是一個(gè)目標(biāo)。正如奧巴馬宣示的，這個(gè)島國(guó)的未來(lái)要由古巴人來(lái)決定。這一點(diǎn)也提供了奧巴馬此行與1928年時(shí)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)卡爾文•柯立芝(Calvin Coolidge)訪問(wèn)古巴之行唯一可信的共同點(diǎn)。當(dāng)年柯立芝試圖撤回美國(guó)對(duì)古巴事務(wù)的密切管理，他的理由是，如果古巴人要折騰自己，讓他們?nèi)缭敢詢旊y道不是更加公平嗎?

Mr Obama’s visit, though, is more than about mending ties and regaining leverage in an oldcold war foe with which the US has few ties and less leverage. It is a keystone in the US’sbroader approach to the region. While the Middle East and the Mediterranean rim may be amess, US foreign policy in its own hemisphere and the Caribbean is almost blooming. Thebroad lesson here is the importance of the long view.

不過(guò)，奧巴馬的古巴之行意義不僅在于修復(fù)關(guān)系，重新獲得對(duì)一個(gè)冷戰(zhàn)老對(duì)手的影響力;目前美國(guó)與古巴聯(lián)系很少，影響力就更少了。此行是美國(guó)對(duì)該地區(qū)整體戰(zhàn)略的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵。盡管中東和地中海沿岸可能一團(tuán)糟，但美國(guó)在自己所在的半球以及加勒比地區(qū)的外交關(guān)系近乎碩果累累。這其中的主要收獲在于長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)眼光的重要性。

Thirty or so years ago, much of Latin America — from civil strife in Central America to drugwars in Colombia — seemed to be a series of intractable situations. No more.

差不多30年前，拉美大部分地區(qū)——從中美洲的內(nèi)亂到哥倫比亞的毒品戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)——貌似一個(gè)又一個(gè)棘手的爛攤子。局面已不再如此。

Colombia’s Marxist guerrillas, tacitly encouraged by Havana, are poised to put down theirweapons. Rapprochement with Cuba also pulls out the rhetorical rug from under the feet ofVenezuela’s mad-dog government, which can no longer rail convincingly about imperialism.

在哈瓦那方面心照不宣地鼓勵(lì)下，哥倫比亞的馬克思主義游擊隊(duì)正準(zhǔn)備放下武器。美國(guó)與古巴修好，還使委內(nèi)瑞拉的瘋狗政府不再有理論自信，再也無(wú)法振振有詞地譴責(zé)帝國(guó)主義。

Meanwhile, the forces of economic gravity are doing for other mismanaged countries in theregion. Brazil’s corruption-riven government is on the point of collapse. Argentina’s recentlyelected president, Mauricio Macri, a pro-business centrist, has said that he wants to re-engagewith the US. Mr Obama will travel there on Tuesday. Another historic trip, it will be the firstbilateral US-Argentine visit in nearly 20 years.

同時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)引力的力量正在該地區(qū)其它管理失當(dāng)?shù)膰?guó)家發(fā)揮作用。在巴西，腐敗纏身的政府即將崩潰。阿根廷最近當(dāng)選的總統(tǒng)毛里西奧•馬克里(Mauricio Macri)是一個(gè)親商的中間派人士，他已表示希望與美國(guó)重新接觸。奧巴馬將在周二對(duì)阿根廷展開(kāi)訪問(wèn)。那將是又一次歷史性的訪問(wèn)，是美國(guó)與阿根廷近20年來(lái)首次雙邊訪問(wèn)。

So much for advancing US interests. What of Cuba’s? Critics complain Mr Obama has given upmore to Havana than Havana has given back. Perhaps so. But tit-for-tat negotiations withCuba’s Communist leaders would have gone nowhere, as they always have. Anyway, actingunilaterally turns the spotlight on Cuba and removes its traditional excuses for intransigenceand human rights abuses. Mr Obama must press those concerns, as should others.

這些都是增進(jìn)美國(guó)利益的事情。那么古巴的利益呢?批評(píng)人士抱怨，奧巴馬對(duì)哈瓦那方面作出的讓步，比哈瓦那方面的回饋更多。也許是這樣。但是，同古巴共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人進(jìn)行針?shù)h相對(duì)的談判將會(huì)一無(wú)所成，那樣的談判歷來(lái)如此。無(wú)論如何，單方面采取行動(dòng)使古巴置身于聚光燈下，消除了古巴對(duì)于頑固立場(chǎng)和侵犯人權(quán)行為的傳統(tǒng)借口。奧巴馬必須交涉那些問(wèn)題，其他人也應(yīng)該這么做。

Change is coming to Cuba. The passing of its original revolutionary leaders makes itinevitable — at some point. When Air Force One leaves Havana, 11m people will still return tothe dull if slowly changing routines of centralised planning and a police state.

古巴正在迎來(lái)變化。其原有的革命領(lǐng)袖的過(guò)世在某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)將使變化不可避免。當(dāng)“空軍一號(hào)”離開(kāi)哈瓦那之后，1100萬(wàn)古巴人仍將回到中央計(jì)劃和警察國(guó)家體制下沉悶(如果說(shuō)在慢慢變化的話)的日常生活。

But even if it takes the patience of Job, their lives now have a better chance of improving too.

但即使這需要約伯(Job)的耐心，至少他們的生活現(xiàn)在有了改善的更好機(jī)會(huì)。