偽心理學(xué)：從星座到手掌

Pseudo-Psychologies - From Planets to Palms

偽心理學(xué)：從星座到手掌

Pseudo-psychologies (“pseudo-”means false) are dubious and unfounded systems of predicting behaviors that superficially resemble psychology. What are some of these pseudo-psychologies? Why do some people accept them as valid?

偽心理學(xué)表面看上去像是心理學(xué)，但它預(yù)測人類行為的機(jī)制既靠不住又沒有事實(shí)依據(jù)。偽心理學(xué)有哪些經(jīng)典案例？為什么人們會(huì)相信它們是真的？

Probably the most popular pseudo-psychology is astrology . It is based on the assumption that the position of the planets and stars at the time of a person's birth determines personality characteristics and affects behavior. Palmistry, another pseudo-psychology, claims that the lines in the hand are indicators of personality and the person's future.

最著名的偽心理學(xué)大概是占星術(shù)（星座論）。占星術(shù)的理論基礎(chǔ)建立在這樣一個(gè)假設(shè)上：一個(gè)人出生時(shí)行星的位置決定了這個(gè)人的性格并且會(huì)影響他/她的行為。手相是另一種偽心理學(xué)，聲稱手上的線條昭示了這個(gè)人的性格和未來運(yùn)勢。

Why do these pseudo-psychologies survive and retain their popularity ? One factor is the P.T. Barnum effect. P. T. Barnum, a famous circus showman, had a formula for success -“Always has a little something for everybody.”Read the following personality description .

為什么偽科學(xué)依然存在而且如此熱門？其中一個(gè)原因便是巴納姆效應(yīng)。巴納姆是一個(gè)著名的馬戲團(tuán)演員，有個(gè)成功公式：“永遠(yuǎn)有一點(diǎn)對(duì)每個(gè)人都適用。”閱讀下面的性格描述：

You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused energy, which you have not turned to your advantage . While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have some doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed-in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others opinions without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times, you are extroverted , affable , sociable, while at other times, you are introverted , wary and reserved . Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic .

你強(qiáng)烈地需要?jiǎng)e人喜歡你，崇拜你。你傾向于對(duì)自己嚴(yán)格。你有很多還未使用的潛力，還沒有來得及成為你的優(yōu)勢。你有一些性格上的缺點(diǎn)，但大體上你能補(bǔ)償它們。外表上你遵守紀(jì)律，很有自制力，但內(nèi)心里你會(huì)憂慮，沒有安全感。有時(shí)你會(huì)懷疑你自己是否做出了正確的選擇或者做了正確的事。你愿意接受一定程度的改變和多元，但一旦有條規(guī)限制，你會(huì)感到不滿。你為你自己的獨(dú)立思考能力而驕傲，并且在沒有令人滿意的證據(jù)時(shí)不輕易接受他人的觀點(diǎn)。你認(rèn)為過于坦誠地向他人暴露自己的真實(shí)想法是不聰明的。有時(shí)候你外向，和藹，合群，但有時(shí)候你內(nèi)向，謹(jǐn)慎，保守。你有一些非常不切實(shí)際的抱負(fù)。

Does this describe you? Barnum's method works because of the fallacy of positive instances. Because people tend to remember whatever confirms their expectations and forget the rest, an illusion of accuracy is created. If you still doubt this, read all 12 of the daily horoscopes in the newspaper for several days. You will find that the predictions of the other signs will fit you as well as your own. Although astrology has a highly developed system that makes it look like a science, studies have repeatedly shown it to have no scientific validity . In addition , astrologists still can't explain why the moment of birth should be more important than the moment of conception in determining personality.

這一段是否描述了你？巴納姆的理論之所以奏效是因?yàn)檎囌`效應(yīng)。人們傾向于記下那些符合他們期望的，無論那是什么，而忘掉剩下的，因此產(chǎn)生這份描述“準(zhǔn)確”的錯(cuò)覺。如果你依然對(duì)此持懷疑態(tài)度，請(qǐng)連續(xù)幾天閱讀報(bào)紙上12個(gè)星座的每日星座運(yùn)勢，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)其他星座的預(yù)測就像你自己星座的預(yù)測一樣，與你的情況相符。盡管占星學(xué)有一套發(fā)達(dá)的系統(tǒng)，它看起來像是真正的科學(xué)，但研究已經(jīng)一而再再而三證實(shí)占星學(xué)和科學(xué)根本沾不上關(guān)系。而且，占星術(shù)依然無法解釋在決定性格時(shí)，為什么出生時(shí)刻比懷孕時(shí)刻更重要。

For most people, astrology is a harmless and entertaining pastime. However, uncritical acceptance of any system leads to problems. Rather than trying to“put down”those who believe in these pseudo-psychologies, this article is trying to make you a more critical observer of human behavior and to clarify what is - and what is not - psychology.

對(duì)大多數(shù)人來說，占星術(shù)并沒有害處，是用來消磨時(shí)間很有趣的方式。但是，不假思索地接受任意思想體系會(huì)導(dǎo)致問題。這篇文章的目的并不是試圖打倒那些偽心理學(xué)的信徒，而是澄清什么是、什么不是心理學(xué)，并希望你在觀察人類行為時(shí)能夠更加謹(jǐn)慎。