雨、浪和風(fēng):如何理解颶風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

雨、浪和風(fēng):如何理解颶風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Millions of Americans live in the potential path of a hurricane.

數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人生活在颶風(fēng)可能經(jīng)過(guò)的地方。

The good news is that hurricane and cyclone forecasts have gotten significantly more accurate in recent decades. The bad news is that climate change and population growth combine to make hurricanes more dangerous to more people.

好消息是，近幾十年來(lái)，颶風(fēng)和氣旋預(yù)報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確性大大提高了。壞消息是，氣候變化和人口增長(zhǎng)相結(jié)合，使颶風(fēng)對(duì)更多的人更加危險(xiǎn)。

And research suggests that people are confused by common graphics and warnings about where hurricanes are headed and how they'll affect communities in their path.

研究表明，人們對(duì)常見(jiàn)的關(guān)于颶風(fēng)行進(jìn)方向以及它們將如何影響沿途社區(qū)的圖像和警告感到困惑。

Here are some basic principles you can use to avoid confusion when a hurricane is headed your way.

這里有一些基本原則，當(dāng)颶風(fēng)向你襲來(lái)時(shí)，你可以使用它們來(lái)避免困惑。

Figuring out whether you and your family are in the potential path of a hurricane is the first step. When a storm forms, the National Hurricane Center publishes a prediction map that shows where the hurricane is headed.

第一步是弄清楚你和你的家人是否處于颶風(fēng)的潛在路徑上。當(dāng)風(fēng)暴形成時(shí)，國(guó)家颶風(fēng)中心發(fā)布一份預(yù)測(cè)地圖，顯示颶風(fēng)的走向。

That map sometimes has a central line that shows the most likely path of the hurricane. Imagine that the line starts at the current location of the storm — somewhere over the water — and extends toward the land, showing you where the storm is likely to be in the coming hours and days.

地圖上有時(shí)會(huì)有一條中心線，顯示出颶風(fēng)最可能的路徑。想象一下，這條線從風(fēng)暴的當(dāng)前位置開(kāi)始——在水面上的某個(gè)地方——向陸地延伸，顯示出未來(lái)幾個(gè)小時(shí)或幾天風(fēng)暴可能在哪里。

But each location along the storm's projected path is less and less certain, because it's farther in the future. The storm could move slightly left or slightly right at any moment, and that changes where it ultimately makes landfall.

但是風(fēng)暴預(yù)計(jì)路徑上的每個(gè)位置都越來(lái)越不確定，因?yàn)樗诟h(yuǎn)的未來(lái)。風(fēng)暴隨時(shí)可能輕微向左或向右移動(dòng)，這就改變了它最終登陸的地點(diǎn)。

The map is usually published along with information about the storm's wind category. The categories range from tropical storms with sustained wind below 74 miles an hour up to Category 5 storms with sustained winds above 157 miles per hour.

該地圖通常與風(fēng)暴的類(lèi)別信息一起發(fā)布。這些類(lèi)別包括持續(xù)風(fēng)速在每小時(shí)74英里以下的熱帶風(fēng)暴，以及持續(xù)風(fēng)速在每小時(shí)157英里以上的5級(jí)風(fēng)暴。

But, although high winds can destroy buildings, water is the most deadly part of a hurricane. And a storm's category doesn't tell you anything about the flooding it will cause.

但是，盡管強(qiáng)風(fēng)可以摧毀建筑物，但水是颶風(fēng)中最致命的部分。而風(fēng)暴的類(lèi)別并不能告訴你它將引發(fā)的洪水。

"My number one message to people is to focus less on wind and more on water," says Jamie Rhome, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. "The map tells you very little about storm surge or rain, which are consistently the deadliest effects of hurricanes."

國(guó)家颶風(fēng)中心的高級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)員杰米·羅姆說(shuō):“我給人們的首要信息是少關(guān)注風(fēng)多關(guān)注水。”“地圖告訴你的關(guān)于風(fēng)暴潮或降雨的信息非常少，而這一直是颶風(fēng)造成的最致命的影響。”

Storm surge is water pushed up onto coastal land by the hurricane. The National Hurricane Center publishes storm surge forecast maps that show which areas are in danger, and how much water could arrive with the storm.

風(fēng)暴潮是颶風(fēng)把海水推到海岸的陸地上。國(guó)家颶風(fēng)中心發(fā)布了風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)測(cè)地圖，顯示哪些地區(qū)處于危險(xiǎn)之中，以及有多少水會(huì)隨著風(fēng)暴到達(dá)。

Unfortunately, storm surge and rain maps do not include local information about where to go and how to prepare. That's because local emergency managers are in charge of deciding when to recommend evacuations, where to set up shelters and how to manage evacuation routes.

不幸的是，風(fēng)暴潮和降雨地圖不包括當(dāng)?shù)氐男畔?，關(guān)于去哪里和如何準(zhǔn)備。這是因?yàn)楫?dāng)?shù)氐膽?yīng)急管理人員負(fù)責(zé)決定何時(shí)建議疏散，在哪里設(shè)立避難所，以及如何管理疏散路線。

When hurricane season begins in early summer, check with your county or city emergency department to find out whether you're in an evacuation zone, and what your options are if you decide to leave your home.

當(dāng)颶風(fēng)季節(jié)在初夏開(kāi)始時(shí)，向你所在的縣或市應(yīng)急部門(mén)查詢(xún)你是否處于疏散區(qū)，以及如果你決定離開(kāi)你的家，你有什么選擇。

"Hurricane risks are different for different people," explains Barbara Millet, the director of the University of Miami's User Experience Lab. It's currently very difficult for citizens to get all the information they need when a hurricane is headed their way.

邁阿密大學(xué)用戶(hù)體驗(yàn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室的主任芭芭拉·米勒解釋說(shuō):“不同的人面臨的颶風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不同的。”目前，當(dāng)颶風(fēng)向他們襲來(lái)時(shí)，市民很難獲得他們需要的所有信息。