如果不采取有效措施，到2040年海洋塑料污染將增加兩倍

如果不采取有效措施，到2040年海洋塑料污染將增加兩倍

Plastic pollution is a big problem. But just how big has remained something of a mystery until recently, when a detailed study was published that delved into the actual numbers driving the crisis. This important study was the result of two years of research and analysis by Pew Charitable Trusts and environmental think tank SYSTEMIQ, Ltd. that, together, wanted to quantify the problem that we face in order to come up with more effective solutions for it. It was published both in the form of a peer-reviewed study in Science journal and as a report.

塑料污染是個大問題。但究竟有多大仍然是一個謎，直到最近，一項深入研究導(dǎo)致危機的實際數(shù)字的詳細研究才得以發(fā)表。這項重要的研究是皮尤慈善信托基金和環(huán)境智庫SYSTEMIQ, Ltd.兩年研究和分析的結(jié)果，他們希望量化我們所面臨的問題，從而提出更有效的解決方案。這項研究以同行評議的形式發(fā)表在《科學(xué)》雜志上，也以報告的形式發(fā)表。

What the study revealed is that ocean plastic pollution will triple by 2040 if nothing is done to stop it. That translates to a horrifying 110 pounds (50 kilograms) of plastic per 3.2 feet (1 meter) of shoreline. The usual number cited for annual ocean plastic pollution is 8 million metric tons (one metric ton is 2204.6 pounds), but the study says that's really closer to 11 metric tons, and it could easily reach 29 metric tons– and this doesn't even include the enormous quantities of plastic that are discarded on land every year. Furthermore, even if governments and businesses followed through with all their promises to curb plastic waste, the global flow of ocean plastic would shrink by a mere 7% by 2040, which is far from adequate.

這項研究顯示，如果不采取任何措施阻止，到2040年海洋塑料污染將增加兩倍。也就是說，每3.2英尺(1米)的海岸線上就有110磅(50公斤)的塑料。年度海洋塑料污染通常被引用的數(shù)量是800萬噸(一噸2204.6磅),但這項研究說,非常接近11噸,而且它很容易達到29噸——這還不包括每年廢棄的土地上大量的塑料。此外，即使各國政府和企業(yè)兌現(xiàn)了所有遏制塑料垃圾的承諾，到2040年全球海洋塑料流量僅會減少7%，這遠遠不夠。

A little boy plays on a plastic-covered beach in Jakarta, Indonesia.Ed Wray / Getty Images

The researchers created and analyzed five scenarios in which plastic waste is dealt with differently between now and 2040. These included "Business As Usual" (providing a baseline to which alternative models can be compared), "Collect and Dispose" (improving collection and disposal infrastructure), "Recycling" (improving and expanding recycling capabilities), "Reduce and Substitute" (an upstream solution that replaces plastic with other greener materials), and "System Change" (a complete overhaul that includes reducing demand for plastic, replacing with better materials, and improving recycling rates).

研究人員創(chuàng)建并分析了從現(xiàn)在到2040年間塑料垃圾處理的五種不同方案。包括“一切照舊”(提供一個基線的替代模型可以比較),“收集和處理”(提高收集和處理設(shè)施),“回收”(改善和擴大回收能力),“減少和替代”(一個上游解決方案取代塑料與其他環(huán)保材料),和“系統(tǒng)變化”(一個完整的改革,包括減少對塑料的需求,更換更好的材料,和提高回收率)。

What the researchers found was that, if a total System Change did occur – and governments and businesses were brave enough to push for a remake of the global plastics industry, using every single bit of technology that is currently at their disposal – plastic waste could be reduced by 80% by 2040. But if this total overhaul were delayed by just five years, an additional 500 million metric tons of mismanaged plastic waste would enter the environment in the meantime.

研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果整個系統(tǒng)確實發(fā)生了變化，而且政府和企業(yè)都有足夠的勇氣推動全球塑料工業(yè)的重建，利用現(xiàn)有的每一項技術(shù)，到2040年塑料垃圾將減少80%。但如果這一全面改革推遲5年，那么，另外5億噸管理不善的塑料垃圾也將進入環(huán)境。

Recycling is a crucial part of the solution, but it must be greatly improved from its current underdeveloped state. Collection rates must go up, considering that two billion people currently lack access to waste collection services and that number will increase to four billion by 2040, but scaling up is a "monumental task。"

回收是解決問題的一個關(guān)鍵部分，但它必須從目前的不發(fā)達狀態(tài)大大改善?？紤]到目前有20億人缺乏垃圾收集服務(wù)，而到2040年這一數(shù)字將增至40億，垃圾收集率必須提高，但擴大收集率是一項“巨大的任務(wù)”。

A worker cleans plastic trash left behind in a public square in Wales, June 2020. Matthew Horwood / Getty Images

As National Geographic explained, this is an "inconceivable prospect, but was included in the report to convey the enormity of the problems involved in containing waste on a global scale."

正如《國家地理》解釋的那樣，這是一個“難以想象的前景，但在報告中提到這一點是為了表達在全球范圍內(nèi)處理垃圾所涉及的巨大問題。”