紙質(zhì)書復(fù)興背后的玄機

Ten years ago, as Jeff Bezos launched the Kindle ereader in New York, he declared that “the book is so highly evolved and so suited to its task that it’s very hard to displace”. Amazon’s founder was right: this spring, despite the digital upheaval unleashed by the Kindle, it will open a bookstore in Manhattan.

10年前，杰夫•貝索斯(Jeff Bezos)在紐約推出Kindle電子書閱讀器的時候宣稱，“圖書經(jīng)過高度的演變，非常適合閱讀，它很難被取代”。這位亞馬遜(Amazon)的創(chuàng)始人說得對：今年春季，它將會在曼哈頓開一家書店，盡管Kindle掀起了數(shù)字閱讀風暴。

There are signs of the book’s renaissance all around. Waterstones, the UK book chain, returned to profit last year after suffering six years of losses. Sales of print books in the US rose by 3 per cent, while those of ebooks have fallen. Digital technology has not unleashed the same revolution in publishing that it has for music, television and news; we still like to read books.

如今到處都有圖書復(fù)興的跡象。英國連鎖書店“水磨石”(Waterstones)在6年虧損后，去年恢復(fù)盈利。美國紙質(zhì)圖書銷售增長3%，同時那些電子書的銷售下降。數(shù)字技術(shù)沒有推動出版業(yè)爆發(fā)音樂、電視和新聞領(lǐng)域的那種革命，我們?nèi)匀幌矚g讀書。

The book’s enduring popularity is widely hailed as a heart-warming tale of traditional values triumphing over cold, hard technology. This is not the whole story, however. It can equally be read as the narrative of Amazon’s growth: if you cut prices, people buy more and if you raise prices, they buy less.

圖書持續(xù)受歡迎，被普遍譽為溫暖人心的傳統(tǒng)價值故事勝過了冰冷的技術(shù)。然而，這并非故事的全部。它同樣可以被解讀為亞馬遜成長的故事：如果你降價，人們就會更多購買，如果你提價，他們就會減少購買。

Customers enjoy the touch and feel of printed books: Americans read an average of 12 books a year, and most of those are physical. But they also prefer low prices, and do not like the fact that ebooks are comparatively expensive. Take The Whistler, John Grisham’s new blockbuster, which was selling on Amazon this week for $14.47 in hardback and $14.99 on Kindle.

顧客喜歡紙質(zhì)書的觸感：美國人平均每年閱讀12本書，其中大部分是紙質(zhì)書。但他們也青睞低價，不喜歡電子書相對昂貴的事實。以約翰•格里沙姆(John Grisham)的新暢銷書《吹口哨的人》(The Whistler)為例，它本周在亞馬遜的精裝本售價為14.47美元，而Kindle上的售價是14.99美元。

That is the new reality: ebooks from publishers such as Penguin Random House and HarperCollins often cost more than hardbacks as well as paperbacks. Mr Bezos’s efforts a decade ago to promote mass adoption of the Kindle by discounting bestsellers to $9.99 and making ebooks cheaper than books has faded. It is now the other way round: Amazon favours print.

這是新的現(xiàn)實：企鵝蘭登書屋(Penguin Random House)和哈珀柯林斯(HarperCollins)等出版商的電子書售價往往超過精裝本和簡裝本。貝索斯不再像10年前那樣，為了推廣Kindle而將暢銷書打折到9.99美元，使電子書比紙質(zhì)書更便宜?，F(xiàn)在正好顛倒了過來：亞馬遜青睞紙質(zhì)書。

We are, in other words, witnessing not a bibliophile revolution against Amazon’s digital hegemony but Mr Bezos changing his tactics. Amazon sold 35m more print books in the US last year than in 2015, according to one analyst, taking even greater market share from its old competitor Barnes & Noble. The 2m rise in sales at independent US book shops was a sideshow.

換言之，我們見證的不是愛書人對亞馬遜數(shù)字霸權(quán)的革命，而是貝索斯改變了其戰(zhàn)術(shù)。一位分析師表示，亞馬遜去年在美國的紙質(zhì)書銷量比2015年多3500萬本，從其老對手巴諾(Barnes & Noble)那里奪走了更多的市場份額。美國獨立書店銷量增長200萬只是一個次要數(shù)字。

This is puzzling for anyone who witnessed the relentless struggles between Amazon and major publishers in the past decade, with Mr Bezos attempting to revolutionise the industry and publishers trying to restrain him. He even got the US government on his side with its antitrust suit in 2012 against Apple and large publishers for conspiring to fix the prices of ebooks.

這讓那些見證了過去10年亞馬遜與主要出版社無情爭斗的人們感到困惑，貝索斯試圖顛覆出版業(yè)，而出版商則試圖遏制他。貝索斯甚至讓美國政府站到他這一邊：2012年，美國政府對蘋果(Apple)和大型出版商提起反壟斷訴訟，指控他們合謀操縱電子書價格。

But having fought for the right to set ebook prices in the same way as print book prices, Mr Bezos then backed off. Amazon signed fresh deals with publishers two years ago that limited ebook discounting and prices rose soon afterwards. Hardbacks and paperbacks are relatively cheap because Amazon discounts them; ebooks are expensive because it does so less.

但在竭力爭取電子書和紙質(zhì)書相同定價方式的權(quán)利后，貝索斯做出了讓步。亞馬遜兩年前與出版商簽署了新的協(xié)議，限制電子書打折，隨后價格上漲。精裝書和簡裝書之所以相對便宜，是因為亞馬遜對它們進行了打折;電子書之所以昂貴是因為它們的折扣較少。

The way to view this is as an industry reaching a competitive equilibrium after a decade of disruption, with the main forces — Amazon on one side and the big five publishers on the other — settling on a truce. They cannot formally agree one since it would provoke renewed antitrust action, but that is what it looks like, with the revival of the book as part of their detente.

這意味著，行業(yè)在經(jīng)歷了10年的擾亂后達到了競爭均衡，主要交戰(zhàn)方——一方是亞馬遜，另一方是5家大出版社——達成了停戰(zhàn)。它們不能正式簽署停戰(zhàn)協(xié)議，因為那將會引發(fā)新的反壟斷行動，但它看起來就是停戰(zhàn)，紙質(zhì)書復(fù)興就是它們緩和的一部分。

It makes perfect sense for Amazon. The company invested in launching and developing the Kindle and now dominates the ebook market: B&N has retrenched with the Nook and iPhones are used for other activities than reading ebooks. To the degree that cheap ebooks were needed to promote Kindles, the urgency has passed and some profit-taking is rational.

這對亞馬遜來說非常明智。該公司投資推出并發(fā)展了Kindle，如今在電子書市場占據(jù)主導地位：巴諾已停產(chǎn)Nook電子書閱讀器，iPhone被用于其他活動而非閱讀電子書。就當初利用廉價電子書推廣Kindle來說，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒有那么急迫，斬獲一些利潤是理性的。

The book, in digital or printed form, has been more stable than other kinds of media. Music has faced waves of disruption: first piracy, then people listening to single tracks rather than CDs, and finally the shift from buying to subscribing to services such as Spotify. Not so books: “We read books one at a time and each one takes us days,” says Douglas McCabe of Enders Analysis.

無論是數(shù)字的還是紙質(zhì)的，圖書一直比其他種類的媒體更加穩(wěn)定。音樂曾面臨好幾波擾亂：最初是盜版，隨后是人們聽單曲而非唱片，最后是人們從購買轉(zhuǎn)向訂閱Spotify等提供商的服務(wù)。圖書不是這樣，Enders Research的道格拉斯•麥凱布(Douglas McCabe)表示：“我們看書是一次看一本書，每本書都能讓我們看好幾天。”

Amazon and others have dabbled with trying to alter consumption patterns, such as turning publishing into a Netflix-type service. Little has changed: Oyster, an ebook subscription service similar to Kindle Unlimited, closed in 2015. Most people still buy books individually and Amazon has no pressing need to demolish this, given that it is the world’s biggest bookseller.

亞馬遜和其他公司曾嘗試改變消費模式，比如將出版轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)镹etflix類型的服務(wù)。結(jié)果什么都沒改變：與Kindle Unlimited類似的電子書訂閱服務(wù)Oyster在2015年倒閉。大多數(shù)人仍然一本一本地買書，鑒于其仍然是全球最大的書商，亞馬遜并不急于廢除這種模式。

The equilibrium also helps publishers, which profit from ebooks because they can digitise print titles and sell them at higher margins. Since Amazon eased discounts on their ebooks, the pressure has risen: one executive estimates that financing more marketing and discounting themselves could cost US publishers $100m a year.

這種均衡狀態(tài)也有利于出版商，后者從電子書獲利，因為它們很容易提供數(shù)字版本的圖書，獲得更高的利潤率。既然亞馬遜縮小了對電子書的折扣，壓力上升：一位高管估計，如果美國出版商要自己出錢進行更多營銷和打折，一年可能得多拿出1億美元。

They should not sit back and enjoy the truce: the big five’s share of the US ebook market fell from 46 per cent in 2012 to 34 per cent in 2015 as independent publishers and self-published authors undercut their prices.

它們不應(yīng)該放松并享受休戰(zhàn)：5大出版社在美國電子書市場的份額已從2012年的46%下降至2015年的34%，因為獨立出版社和自助出版作家降低了價格。

But for now, the book’s renaissance suits Amazon, publishers, and readers. “It turns out people like paper if they are not penalised financially,” says Mike Shatzkin of the consultancy Idea Logical. A decade after the Kindle’s launch, Mr Bezos is rewarding them.

但就現(xiàn)在而言，圖書的復(fù)興符合亞馬遜、出版商和讀者的利益。咨詢公司Idea Logical的邁克•沙茨金(Mike Shatzkin)表示：“事實證明，只要人們在經(jīng)濟上不吃虧，他們就會喜歡紙質(zhì)書。”推出Kindle 10年后的今天，貝索斯正在報答紙質(zhì)書。

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