Lex專欄：誰真正救了萬科？

Rejoice at the demise of a poorly motivated deal. Yesterday China Vanke, the developer listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, said it would not after all buy assets from Shenzhen Metro in exchange for shares. The deal was touted in March as a means to ensure Vanke’s future growth. It was, rather, designed to bring a large, friendly shareholder on to the register to tip the balance in a battle for control.

太好了，一筆動(dòng)機(jī)不足的交易黃了。在香港和深圳兩地上市的開發(fā)商萬科(China Vanke)昨日最終表示，將不會(huì)用股票換取深圳地鐵(Shenzhen Metro)的資產(chǎn)。這筆交易在3月曾被宣傳為確保萬科未來增長的一種手段，但其真實(shí)目的是讓一個(gè)龐大的、友好的股東成為大股東，以改變股權(quán)之爭中的力量對(duì)比。

Vanke has been caught in a takeover tussle since last year when companies affiliated with Baoneng, a privately owned insurer, began to build a stake now worth one quarter of the company. Although the largest shareholder, Baoneng’s position has been weakened. Last week China’s insurance regulator said it would lower the limit on equity investment by insurers from 40 to 30 per cent of their portfolios. Individual holdings cannot amount to more than 5 per cent, half the previous level. The intention of authorities, which have upbraided Baoneng for using leverage to buy into Vanke, is clear.

萬科從去年開始陷入收購爭奪戰(zhàn)，當(dāng)時(shí)私人所有的保險(xiǎn)公司寶能(Baoneng)的關(guān)聯(lián)企業(yè)開始增持萬科股份，現(xiàn)已持有萬科四分之一股份。不過最大股東寶能的地位已被削弱。上周中國保險(xiǎn)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)表示，將權(quán)益類資產(chǎn)占保險(xiǎn)公司總資產(chǎn)比例上限從40%下調(diào)至30%，單一股票投資不得超過5%(比原規(guī)定上限水平減少一半)。曾斥責(zé)寶能利用杠桿收購萬科的有關(guān)部門的意圖很明顯。

Baoneng is not alone in having its ambitions curbed. Hong Kong-listed China Evergrande owns 14 per cent of Vanke through subsidiaries. Its insurance arm has had product sales halted and it has been barred from investing in China’s stock markets. Evergrande said on Chinese state TV it had no interest in the control of its peer, suggesting it will not side with Baoneng. Fortunately, too, cancelling the Shenzhen Metro deal will bring China Resources, the state-owned enterprise which owns 15 per cent of Vanke, back on side with management.

野心受到外力抑制的并不止寶能一家。在香港上市的中國恒大(China Evergrande)通過子公司持有萬科14%股份。恒大旗下保險(xiǎn)公司的產(chǎn)品銷售已被叫停，且被禁止投資中國股票市場(chǎng)。恒大在中國國家電視臺(tái)上表示，自己無意、也不會(huì)做萬科的控股股東，暗示自己不會(huì)與寶能聯(lián)手。幸運(yùn)的是，深圳地鐵交易的取消，將令持有萬科15%股份的國有企業(yè)華潤(China Resources)重新與萬科管理層站到同一戰(zhàn)線。

Not a moment too soon. In the first half of 2016, skittish partners began to back away from Vanke projects; S&P in August downgraded its outlook from stable to negative. And after a stellar run, China’s property market is softening. Yesterday, official data showed that prices have stalled, in response to cooling measures including mortgage restrictions. Vanke can now focus on the problem thanks to its real white knight: officialdom.

時(shí)機(jī)不早不晚。2016年上半年，緊張不安的合作伙伴們開始紛紛退出萬科項(xiàng)目，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(S&P)在8月份將萬科評(píng)級(jí)展望由穩(wěn)定降為負(fù)面。而且經(jīng)過一輪高速增長后，中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)已開始疲軟。昨日官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于按揭限制等樓市降溫措施的作用，房價(jià)已開始停滯。萬科現(xiàn)在可以集中精力解決自己的問題了，這都要感謝真正的白衣騎士——官方。