伯南克：短期內(nèi)不會加息

US interest rates would remain at exceptionally low levels for an “extended period” in spite of the “nascent” economic recovery, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, told Congress yesterday.

美聯(lián)儲主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日告訴國會，美國利率在“一段長時間內(nèi)”將保持在極低水平，盡管美國經(jīng)濟“初步”復蘇。

Mr Bernanke painted a relatively gloomy picture of the economy, which is still struggling in the wake of the crisis, with high unemployment and a weak housing market. This meant inflationary pressures – the main driver of tighter monetary policy – were likely to remain “subdued”, he added.

伯南克描繪了一幅相對黯淡的經(jīng)濟景象：在危機過后，經(jīng)濟依然在艱難掙扎，失業(yè)率高企，住宅市場疲弱。他表示，這意味著通脹壓力（收緊貨幣政策的主要動因）可能保持“緩和”。

“The Federal Open Market Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilisation, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,” Mr Bernanke told the House financial services committee.

“聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)仍然預(yù)期，根據(jù)經(jīng)濟形勢——包括資源利用率較低、通脹趨勢緩和、通脹預(yù)期穩(wěn)定——在一段長時間內(nèi)，聯(lián)邦基金利率可能應(yīng)當保持在極低水平，”伯南克向眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會表示。

Mr Bernanke's insistence that rate rises are still months away will damp fears that last week's increase in the discount rate – at which commercial banks can borrow emergency cash from the central bank – from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent is a precursor to a swifter tightening of monetary policy.

伯南克堅稱加息還是幾個月后的事，這將沖淡上周提高貼現(xiàn)率所引起的擔憂。當時美聯(lián)儲把貼現(xiàn)率從0.5%上調(diào)至0.75%，人們以為這是加快收緊貨幣政策的預(yù)兆。貼現(xiàn)率是商業(yè)銀行向美聯(lián)儲緊急貸款的利率。

Fed officials – including Mr Bernanke yesterday – have indicated that it was simply a move to unwind emergency liquidity measures put in place during the crisis, as a result of improving conditions in the financial markets – and not a tightening move. Economists at Goldman Sachs said it was “crystal clear” the Fed did not anticipate raising rates in the near future.

美聯(lián)儲官員已經(jīng)表示，此舉不過是因為金融市場形勢好轉(zhuǎn)，美聯(lián)儲要退出在危機期間實施的緊急流動性措施，而并不是一項緊縮行動。昨日伯南克也作了同樣的表示。高盛(Goldman Sachs)經(jīng)濟學家表示，“十分清楚”，美聯(lián)儲不打算在近期內(nèi)加息。

Nevertheless, the Fed this month began to lay out its vision for the sequence of measures it expects to take to shrink the money supply once the economic recovery is sufficiently strong. Although the economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, economists are expecting the pace of growth to slow over the course of the year. The Fed is expecting growth of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent this year.

不過，美聯(lián)儲本月已開始展望，一旦經(jīng)濟復蘇勢頭足夠穩(wěn)健，它準備依次采取哪些措施來收緊貨幣供應(yīng)。盡管去年末季美國經(jīng)濟以年率計算增長了5.7%，但經(jīng)濟學家預(yù)計今年美國經(jīng)濟增長將趨緩。美聯(lián)儲目前預(yù)計，今年經(jīng)濟將增長3%至3.5%。