市場押注富國政府債券違約

The mounting level of debt in the industrialised world is prompting a growing number of investors to use the derivatives market to bet on the chance of rich governments defaulting on bonds.

發(fā)達國家不斷增長的債務水平，正促使越來越多的投資者通過衍生品市場，押注于富國政府債券違約的可能性。

The volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year due to concerns about their public finances.

過去一年，與美國、英國和日本相關的主權信貸違約互換（衡量對象是債券違約擔保成本）的成交量增長了一倍，原因在于市場擔憂這些國家的公共財政狀況。

CDS volumes for Italy, which has one of the highest debt burdens of the developed economies, are now the highest for an individual country, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

根據(jù)美國存托和清算公司(Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation)的數(shù)據(jù)，以國別計算，目前意大利信貸違約互換(CDS)的成交量最高，該國是發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體中債務負擔最大的國家之一。

In contrast, the outstanding volume of CDS linked to emerging nations such as Russia, Brazil, Ukraine and Indonesia have been flat or fallen in the past 12 months as investors have become less interested in trading the risks of those countries.

相比之下，過去12個月，與俄羅斯、巴西、烏克蘭和印度尼西亞相關的CDS交易量持平或有所下降，因為投資者對于交易這些國家風險的興趣有所減弱。

In the past, the CDS market for developed countries was sluggish, because few investors saw the need to buy or sell protection against a risk of default that seemed exceedingly remote.

以往，發(fā)達國家CDS市場較為蕭條，因為幾乎沒有投資者認為，自己有必要購買或出售針對一種可能性極小的違約的保險。

However, rising debt levels and growing political and economic uncertainty has created a more active market, with more investors now seeking insurance. Meanwhile, many banks are prepared to offer protection in exchange for a fee.

然而，債務水平的不斷上升，以及政治和經(jīng)濟方面越來越大的不確定性，使得市場活躍起來，目前有更多的投資者尋求保險。與此同時，許多銀行準備提供這種保險以賺取費用。

This fee has recently jumped, since the cost to insure the debt of developed countries has increased since the summer of last year, while the cost of insuring emerging market debt has fallen.

近來這種費用大幅飆升，原因是自去年夏季以來，針對發(fā)達國家債務的保險成本有所上升，而針對新興市場債務的保險成本有所下降。

譯者/懷川