伯南克：美元低利率將持續(xù)很久

Yields on US Treasuries fell sharply yesterday as Ben Bernanke outlined the Federal Reserve's plan to extricate itself from its policy of near-zero interest rates but stressed the economy was too fragile to implement it soon.

美聯(lián)儲(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日概述了美聯(lián)儲結(jié)束接近零利率政策的計劃，但同時強調(diào)，鑒于經(jīng)濟過于脆弱，不會很快實施這一計劃。受此影響，美國國債收益率急劇下跌。

In response to increasing pressure from investors and politicians, Mr Bernanke set out the Fed's “exit strategy” for its policies, which have pumped huge amounts of liquidity into the economy, prompting fears about inflation.

面對投資者和政界人士日益加大的壓力，伯南克列出了美聯(lián)儲針對自身政策的“退出戰(zhàn)略”。這些政策為經(jīng)濟體注入了大量流動性，進而引發(fā)了通脹擔憂。

But the Fed chairman stressed that in spite of glimmers of improvement in the economy, the Fed intended to keep interest rates extremely low for an “extended period”.

但伯南克強調(diào)，雖然經(jīng)濟已出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)跡象，但美聯(lián)儲打算在“很長一段時期內(nèi)”將利率維持在極低水平。

“I want to be clear that we have a very long haul here because even if the economy begins to turn up in terms of production, unemployment is going to stay high for quite a while, so it's not going to feel like a really strong economy,” he said in his bi-annual report to Congress.

在向國會提交的半年度報告中，伯南克指出：“我想說明，我們面臨著非常持久的困境，因為即使經(jīng)濟在產(chǎn)出方面開始好轉(zhuǎn)，但失業(yè)率仍將在相當長時期內(nèi)居高不下，因此感覺上不會像一個非常強勁的經(jīng)濟。”

The Fed expects the economy to start growing again at the end of this year but thinks the unemployment rate – now at 9.5 per cent – will remain elevated through 2011.

美聯(lián)儲預期，今年底，美國經(jīng)濟將再度開始增長，但失業(yè)率——目前為9.5%——直到2011年仍將保持高企。

His testimony boosted the price of Treasuries and sunk the yield on the 10-year note by 12 basis points to 3.46 per cent as investors were persuaded that rates would stay low for a long time.

伯南克的證詞令投資者相信，低利率會維持相當長一段時間。受此影響，美國國債價格走高，10年期國債收益率下跌12個基點，至3.46%。

Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group, said that reaction might not last. “Long-term yields will again face upward pressures from a combination of inflation fears and recovery hopes,” he said. “Inflation will not be a risk for some time but inflation fears could still complicate the Fed's job sooner than it would like.”

意大利聯(lián)合信貸銀行(UniCredit)首席經(jīng)濟學家馬可•阿隆齊奧塔(Marco Annunziata)表示，上述反應(yīng)可能不會持續(xù)太久。“對通脹的擔憂和對復蘇的希望，將令長期收益率再度面臨上行壓力，”他表示。“通脹在一段時期內(nèi)不會構(gòu)成風險，但通脹擔憂仍可能令美聯(lián)儲的任務(wù)復雜化，其時機可能早于美聯(lián)儲的期盼。”

譯者/章晴

莎拉•奧康納( Sarah O'Connor)、湯姆•布雷斯韋特(Tom Braithwaite)華盛頓，邁克爾•麥肯茲(Michael Mackenzie)紐約報道