The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
五問(wèn):
(1)最后一句話“Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues— is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View”是結(jié)論,其余部分是事實(shí),值得反駁嗎?
(2)本題屬于典型的類比題,大家應(yīng)該嘗試回顧我們的基礎(chǔ)理論:到底什么樣的類比才是好的類比? Ocean View與Hopewell兩個(gè)地方需要有哪些相同的特質(zhì)一致,我們才能說(shuō)兩個(gè)地方應(yīng)該采取相同的發(fā)展策略?比如:具備建高爾夫球場(chǎng)的空間環(huán)境和消費(fèi)水平,本身是旅游城市等。
(3)本題中還包含了時(shí)間軸論證的特質(zhì):兩年前 Ocean View所執(zhí)行的策略一定適合兩年后的 Hopewell嗎?時(shí)間的變化是否可能導(dǎo)致很多因素的變化?你能羅列一兩個(gè)這樣的因素嗎?比如:經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況、人們消費(fèi)水平等。
(4)原文將 Ocean View所取得的成就全部都?xì)w結(jié)于“ build a golf course and resort hotel”,你認(rèn)為合適嗎?這個(gè)結(jié)果一定是由“ build a golf course and resort hotel”帶來(lái)的嗎?一定是唯一的原因嗎?一定是最重要的原因嗎?是否可能是當(dāng)?shù)仄渌a(chǎn)業(yè),如高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?是否可能因果倒置:高爾夫球場(chǎng)和度假酒店的建成其實(shí)是旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的結(jié)果?另外,在沒有具體稅收數(shù)額的情況下,給出百分比有參考意義嗎?
(5)“improve Hopewell's economy”的方式可能有很多,在未經(jīng)對(duì)比的情況下,我們能簡(jiǎn)單地下結(jié)論說(shuō)“最好的”是什么嗎?有沒有可能影視娛樂(lè)產(chǎn)業(yè)才是最能促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的方式呢?
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