劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 76

Day 76 Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

五問：

（1）“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol”是事實(shí)， “We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）最近的這項(xiàng)調(diào)查研究是可信的嗎？回顧一下：我們認(rèn)為什么樣的調(diào)查研究才具備良好的代表性和說服力？原文中是否給出了足夠的信息來證明最近的這次調(diào)研達(dá)到了這些要求？另外，調(diào)查中的受訪者期待的做法與他們實(shí)際上的做法之間，是否有差異？

（3）80%的民眾能否代表所有人，剩下的 20%呢？這是否犯了大數(shù)謬誤呢？ Old Dairy Industries這個公司是否有可能正好滿足了剩下 20%的人的需求，從而獲得巨大的利潤呢？

（4）一個公司的商品銷量可能由哪些因素決定？民眾對于食品的某種期待，是否可能真的影響商品的銷量？你是否能羅列出其他可能影響其銷量的因素？比如：價格、好吃程度等。

（5）即便公司的銷量真的會下降，就意味著利潤額也一樣會下降嗎？請大家思考一下，利潤由哪些因素決定，而銷售量是否僅僅是諸多因素中的一個？該公司接下來會不會也大力生產(chǎn) low-fat products呢？另外，食品業(yè)是否可能只是該公司眾多產(chǎn)業(yè)中的一個分支呢？