The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Movie Theater.
“Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
五問:
(1)“Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades”和“ When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year”是事實, “It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)本文屬于比較典型的類比論證式題目,請大家先試著回顧一下:一個有效的類比論證需要達成哪些條件? Rialto與Apex是否滿足了這些類比的條件呢?
(3)Apex與Rialto的地理位置是否相同?如果不同,這會對兩者的經(jīng)營狀況產(chǎn)生哪些影響?例如: Apex位于城外的購物中心內(nèi),也許很多人是去購物而不是專門去看電影的。
(4)原文提供了一項調(diào)查研究作為論據(jù),這項調(diào)查研究的哪些信息可能與Rialto改變策略相關(guān),但原文卻沒有交代清楚? Apex的經(jīng)營策略可以解決調(diào)查所反映出的問題嗎?原文是否給出了足夠的信息?沒有信息表明 Apex的豪華設(shè)施吸引了許多因電影票價貴而減少去影院次數(shù)的顧客,所以并不能說明如果 Rialto借鑒了 Apex的做法,顧客就會增加。
(5)新電影的高票價使得部分受調(diào)查的人每年去電影院看電影的次數(shù)不會超過五次,就意味著電影市場正在萎縮嗎?這 85%的回應(yīng)者具有代表性嗎?這些人是否可能屬于低收入群體,比如學生群體?原來每年看幾次電影?受訪者是否說了真話?