人生不設限·我的“風險管理可笑法則”

為了幫助你處理人生一定會遇到的風險，我總結出“力克的風險管理可笑法則”——那個，你知道的，讀的時候“風險”自負。

To help you deal with the risks you'll face in your life, I've put together Nick's Ridiculous Rules for Managing Risk. Read them at your own . . . well, you know.

 

1.試水深

1. Test the waters.

非洲有句古老的諺語說，沒有人會用兩只腳去試河水的深度。無論你是想嘗試一段新戀情、想搬去另一座城市、想找一份新工作，哪怕只是替自家客廳換上新的顏色，在大動作之前先來點小測試——在還沒弄清楚你到底要跳進哪里之前，別急著一頭栽進去。

An ancient African proverb says no one tests the depth of the river with both feet. If you are considering a new relationship, a move to another city, a new job, or even a new color for the living room, do a little test before making a big move. Don't rush in without a good sense of what you are getting into.

 

 

2.知道多少做多少

2. Go with what you know.

這不是說你永遠不要嘗試新事物、認識新的人，而是說你可以借此多做一些功課，來降低賭注的風險。一旦你認為自己已經掌握了某個機會的利弊得失等所有方面，就該帶著自信展開行動。即使你無法知道所有的狀況，也該知道自己到底不知道些什么——有時，這樣也夠了。

This doesn't mean you should never try new experiences or new people; it simply means that you can lower the odds by doing your homework. Once you think you have a handle on the upside, downside, and every aspect of an opportunity, you should have the confidence to make a move. Even if you don't know it all, you should know what you don't know—and sometimes that's good enough.

 

3.檢查時間表

3. Check the timer.

有時候，等到合適的時間點才行動也可以降低風險，增加成功的可能性。你應該不會想在酷寒的嚴冬中開冰淇淋店吧?像我進入電影事業(yè)，第一個機會不適合我，但是幾個月后，非常適合我的角色出現(xiàn)了，時機也對。有時候，多點耐心是值得的，給自己一點時間思考，別急著作決定。有什么事，睡覺前寫下來，第二天早上醒來后再看一看。你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，經過一個晚上，事情看起來會很不一樣，我就這樣做過很多次。永遠要仔細評估時機對不對，決定在一個困難的時間點采取行動之前，還是要想想是不是有其他更好的時機。

Often you can greatly improve the odds by waiting for the right time to make your move. You wouldn't want to start a new ice cream business in the dead of winter, would you? My first offer to enter the movie business just wasn't for me, but a few months later the role was perfect and the timing was right. Sometimes patience can pay off. Don't be afraid to sleep on it. Write it down before you go to bed, and then read it again in the morning. It's amazing how different it can appear when you let it sit overnight. I have done this many times. Always consider your timing and whether there might be a better time before you make a move on the steep edge of opportunity.

 

 

4.尋求第二意見

4. Get a second opinion.

有時我們會去嘗試一件超過自己能力許多的事，那是因為我們相信一定要馬上做這件事才行。當你發(fā)現(xiàn)自己急著進入一個詭譎刁鉆的領域時，請往后退幾步，去找你信任的朋友或人生導師，請他們幫你評估情勢，因為你的感情已經超過理智，可能不適合單獨作決定。在美國我會去找貝塔叔叔，在澳大利亞則是找爸爸。三個臭皮匠，勝過一個諸葛亮，當某件事的風險太高時，請不要執(zhí)意做江湖獨行俠。

Sometimes we take bigger chances than we should because we're so convinced that we absolutely must do a certain thing right now. If you find yourself rushing into tricky territory, take a couple steps back, call a friend or mentor you trust, and ask for help in assessing the situation, because your emotions may be outrunning your good sense. I go to my uncle Batta here and to my father in Australia. There is wisdom in a council of many. If the stakes are high, you don't have to be the Lone Ranger.

 

 

5.為看不見的后果作準備

5. Prepare for the unseen consequences.

我們的行動總是會有看不見的影響——我再重復一次，是總是——特別是那些超越極限的行動。我們無法預見所有后果，所以要盡可能周密地考慮到每個角度，然后為意想不到的狀況作好準備。我在做經營計劃時，會高估成本、低估利潤，以防事情進展得不如預期。如果一切都進展得很順利，資金有富余也沒害處啊。

There are always, I repeat always, unseen consequences for our actions, especially those that push the envelope. You can never foresee all the repercussions, so you should do your best to consider every angle and then prepare yourself for the unexpected. When I do a business plan, I overestimate costs and underestimate my profit to create a buffer, just in case the business doesn't progress as well as I hope it will. If all goes well, it never hurts to have the extra money.