到2100年，氣候變化可能使美國(guó)GDP減少10.5%

到2100年，氣候變化可能使美國(guó)GDP減少10.5%

Plastic pollution found in the world’s oceans and the melting permafrost in the Arctic could have startling economic burdens, perhaps as much as $2.5 trillion and $70 trillion, respectively.

全球海洋塑料污染和北極永凍層的融化可能帶來(lái)驚人的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)，分別高達(dá)2.5萬(wàn)億美元和70萬(wàn)億美元。

And while there may have been some hope that certain countries could escape the brunt of the impact, a new study suggests that “virtually all” nations will be negatively affected by climate change by 2100.

雖然有人曾希望某些國(guó)家能免受氣候變化的沖擊，但一項(xiàng)新的研究表明，到2100年，“幾乎所有”國(guó)家都將受到氣候變化的負(fù)面影響。

The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggests that countries that are warm, cold, rich or poor will all see a significant loss of income if they do not abide by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

這項(xiàng)由美國(guó)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局發(fā)布的研究表明，如果不遵守2015年《巴黎協(xié)定》，溫暖、寒冷、富?；蜇毟F國(guó)家的收入都將大幅減少。

“Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation,” the study’s abstract states.

“一組數(shù)據(jù)顯示，174個(gè)國(guó)家在1960年至2014年間,對(duì)人均實(shí)際產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)不利影響的持久變化的溫度高于或低于其歷史常態(tài),不包括任何顯著影響降水的變化。”該研究的抽象狀態(tài)。

“Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100.”

“我們分析表明，如果沒有減緩政策，全球平均氣溫每年將持續(xù)上升0.04°C，到2100年，全球?qū)嶋H人均GDP將減少7.22%。”

The impact on the US — which accounted for much of the research’s focus to compare economic activity in hot or wet areas — would be even greater, a loss of 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, according to the researchers.

研究人員表示，氣候變化對(duì)美國(guó)的影響將更大，到2100年，美國(guó)GDP將減少10.5%。

Enlarge Image“Whether cold snaps or heat waves, droughts, floods or natural disasters, all deviations of climate conditions from their historical norms have adverse economic effects,” said Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes, a co-author of the study from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics, in a statement.

劍橋大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院的Kamiar Mohaddes博士在一份聲明中說(shuō):“無(wú)論是寒潮、熱浪、干旱、洪水還是自然災(zāi)害，氣候條件與歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的所有偏差，都會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生不利影響。”

The researchers looked at 10 different sectors, including manufacturing, services, retail and wholesale trade across the contiguous 48 states and found that all of them suffered from at least one aspect of climate change — heat, flood, drought or freeze.

研究人員調(diào)查了美國(guó)48個(gè)州的10個(gè)不同行業(yè)，包括制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、零售和批發(fā)貿(mào)易，發(fā)現(xiàn)所有這些行業(yè)都受到氣候變化——高溫、洪水、干旱或冰凍——至少一方面的影響。

“By concentrating on the US, we were able to compare whether economic activity in hot or wet areas responds to temperature fluctuations around historical norms in the same way as that in cold or dry areas within a single large nation,” Mohaddes added.

“通過(guò)集中研究美國(guó)的情況，我們可以比較一個(gè)國(guó)家，炎熱或潮濕地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，對(duì)歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)溫度波動(dòng)的反應(yīng)，是否與寒冷或干燥地區(qū)相同。”

“Without mitigation and adaptation policies, many countries are likely to experience sustained temperature increases relative to historical norms and suffer major income losses as a result,” Mohaddes said. “This holds for both rich and poor countries as well as hot and cold regions.”

“如果沒有減緩和適應(yīng)政策，許多國(guó)家可能會(huì)經(jīng)歷高于歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的氣溫上升，并因此遭受重大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。”“這不僅適用于富國(guó)和窮國(guó)，也適用于全球任一地區(qū)。”

Canada was also specifically mentioned, as Mohaddes said the country is “warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world” and there are risks to its “physical infrastructure, coastal and northern communities, as well as human health and wellness, ecosystems and fisheries.”

莫哈德斯還特別提到了加拿大。他說(shuō)，加拿大的“升溫速度是世界其他地區(qū)的兩倍”，其“有形基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、沿海和北部社區(qū)，以及人類健康和福祉、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和漁業(yè)”都面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

The country’s economy would decline by 13 percent, according to the report.

根據(jù)報(bào)告，該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)將下降13%。

Other countries, such as Japan, Switzerland and Russia, would also see outsize declines. The economies of these countries would decline 10 percent, 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

日本、瑞士和俄羅斯等其他國(guó)家GDP也將出現(xiàn)大幅下滑,分別下降10%、12%和9%。

Although the researchers acknowledge that world economies will change and adapt to the shifting climate, it may not be enough. According to scientific consensus, it takes roughly 30 years to adapt to climate change, from altering infrastructure to cultural practices. But if that time frame were sped up to 20 years, the US would still lose 7 percent of its GDP by the end of the century.

盡管研究人員承認(rèn)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)改變并適應(yīng)不斷變化的氣候，但這可能還不夠。根據(jù)科學(xué)共識(shí)，從改變基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施到文化實(shí)踐，適應(yīng)氣候變化大約需要30年的時(shí)間。但是，如果把這個(gè)時(shí)間加快到20年，到本世紀(jì)末，美國(guó)仍將損失GDP的7%。

“The UK recently had its hottest day on record. Train tracks buckled, roads melted and thousands were stranded because it was out of the norm,” Mohaddes said. “Such events take an economic toll and will only become more frequent and severe without policies to address the threats of climate change.”

“英國(guó)最近經(jīng)歷了有史以來(lái)最熱的一天。火車軌道被壓彎，道路融化，數(shù)千人被困，這是不正常的。”莫哈德斯說(shuō)。“如果沒有應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化威脅的政策，這樣的事件會(huì)造成經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，而且只會(huì)變得更加頻繁和嚴(yán)重。”

Although the report may seem dour about the prospects of the global economy, not all hope is lost, especially if countries abide by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. Abiding by the nonbinding agreement would limit the temperature increase to just 0.01 degrees Celsius, which would only cut world real GDP per capita by 1.07 percent.

盡管這份報(bào)告似乎對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景持悲觀態(tài)度，但并非所有希望都已破滅，尤其是如果各國(guó)遵守2015年《巴黎氣候變化協(xié)定》(Paris Agreement on climate change)的話。將氣溫上升限制在0.01攝氏度以內(nèi)，世界實(shí)際人均GDP只會(huì)下降1.07%。