Lex專欄：中國的電動車之夢

China learns techniques from the west but adapts them for the local culture. So it is with electric vehicles. Over the weekend, an industry vice-minister has said a European-style timeline to stop “sales of traditional fuel cars” will also be implemented in China. He predicted “turbulent times” as a result. He is right — there will be a scramble for scale.

中國學習西方的方法，但使其適應國情。電動車領域也不例外。工信部的一名副部長在周末表示，中國也將實施歐洲那種停止“生產銷售傳統(tǒng)能源汽車”的時間表。他預測，這將給汽車產業(yè)帶來變革“劇烈的”時期。他說得對——將會有一場競相擴大規(guī)模的角逐。

The country’s pollution problems mean it has every incentive to push electric propulsion. It also sees electrification as an opportunity for its domestic auto industry to catch up with established western carmakers. It is already the largest EV market in the world with 1.2 per cent of car sales last year, according to UBS.

中國的污染問題意味著它有強大動力推動電動推進技術。中國還把電氣化視為國內汽車產業(yè)追趕西方汽車制造商的一個契機。據瑞銀(UBS)統(tǒng)計，它已經是世界最大的電動汽車市場，去年電動汽車銷量占到汽車總銷量的1.2%。

China’s problem with EV economics is the same as everyone else’s. Bernstein estimates that a mid-size combustion vehicle costs $15k to produce compared with $24k for a comparable EV. The differential is down to the battery, which accounts for half of an EV’s cost. A combustion engine is just 15 per cent of a traditional car.

就電動車經濟性而言，中國面臨的問題與其他國家一樣。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)估計，一輛中型內燃發(fā)動機汽車的生產成本為1.5萬美元，而一輛可比電動汽車的生產成本達到2.4萬美元。這一差異的關鍵在于電池，其占電動汽車成本的一半。內燃發(fā)動機僅占傳統(tǒng)汽車成本的15%。

State subsidies helped make EVs affordable for consumers while helping manufacturers with the higher build costs. But the subsidy system is being overhauled to focus more on quotas and credits, in effect pushing more of the cost on to the industry. Carmakers have increasingly had to choose between maintaining pricing at the expense of volumes, or sacrificing margins to preserve market share.

國家補貼有助于讓消費者買得起電動汽車，同時也幫助生產成本較高的制造商。但是這個補貼制度正在進行改革，轉向把重點放在配額和積分上，實際上是把更大一部分成本推給行業(yè)。制造商日益面臨一個選擇：要么為了保持定價而犧牲銷量，要么為了保持市場份額而犧牲利潤率。

Meanwhile, western producers, for whom China has been a very lucrative market, have been reluctant to push battery and hybrid cars. They fear losing valuable intellectual property to their joint-venture partners. The threat of a full-on ban might yet force their hands. They do at least have the scale to finance the necessary investment.

與此同時，西方廠商(中國對它們而言一直是一個非常有利可圖的市場)一直不愿推進電池和混合動力汽車。他們害怕寶貴的知識產權落到合資伙伴手里。硬性禁令的威脅可能會迫使他們付諸行動。他們至少有足夠大的規(guī)模來做出必要的投資。

China’s automakers are not yet big enough to make electric cars profitably. Note that Great Wall, the carmaker that recently pronounced its interest in buying Fiat Chrysler, had to row back quickly for lack of resources. In this context, Monday’s 6 per cent pop in the shares of battery maker BYD looks premature. However, there is logic in imagining that technological advantage will in time beget scale.

中國汽車制造商的規(guī)模還不夠大，無法在盈利狀態(tài)下制造電動汽車。值得指出的是，最近宣布有意收購菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)的汽車制造商長城(Great Wall)因缺乏資源而迅速收手。就此而言，電池制造商比亞迪(BYD)股價周一6%的上漲似乎過早。不過，隨著時間推移，技術優(yōu)勢最終將帶來規(guī)模——這種想象終究是有一些邏輯的。