新款手機能否讓三星恢復元氣？
本周，圍繞三星(Samsung)最新旗艦智能手機的喧囂，無法完全掩蓋這家陷入困境的韓國電子集團高管們的憂慮，該集團仍在因上一次智能手機的災難性發(fā)布以及一樁腐敗丑聞受到沖擊。
Samsung wants to draw a line under the crises of the recent past with the launch of the Galaxy S8, which was given the sort of big budget spectacle and cheering crowds that emphasises the importance of winning over the fickle followers of technology.
三星希望憑借Galaxy S8的推出結束最近的危機，這款手機撥備了巨額預算，并贏得了眾多人士的喝彩，這些人特別強調需要贏得多變的科技迷的青睞。
But for Samsung, there was a wider job to be done in helping to reset its corporate image. There is more than just phone sales at stake for Samsung after the company suffered more than $5.3bn of losses from the safety debacle of the fire-prone Galaxy Note 7 smartphone last year.
然而對于三星而言，在幫助重塑公司形象方面有著更多的工作要做。在三星去年因Galaxy Note 7容易自燃導致的安全危機遭受逾53億美元損失以后，目前處于危險境地的不僅僅是手機銷售。
“We have thought of so many ‘what ifs’ . . . as this product is crucial to regain customer trust,” says Lee Young-hee, Samsung’s executive vice-president in charge of global marketing.
三星負責全球營銷的執(zhí)行副總裁李永熙(Lee Young-hee)表示：“我們考慮過很多的‘假設’……因為這款產品對于恢復客戶信任至關重要。”
“In the end, we must not only win back the customers’ trust, but also the high expectations that they have always held for Samsung.”
“最后，我們不僅必須贏回消費者的信任，而且還要贏得他們一直以來對三星寄予的高度期望。”
The Note 7 fiasco was blamed on faulty battery design and manufacturing, but Samsung has played it safe by not increasing the S8 battery capacity despite the larger sized phones.
三星Note 7的慘敗歸咎于存在缺陷的電池設計和生產，因此三星采取了穩(wěn)妥謹慎的策略，盡管三星S8機身較大，但沒有提高電池容量。
The initial buzz around the S8 was positive, with analysts applauding its design improvements such as the “infinity display” wraparound screen and refinements to several key features, as well as the introduction of a new voice assistant to rival Apple’s Siri.
最初圍繞三星S8的喧囂是正面的，分析師稱贊了這款手機的設計改進，例如“無限顯示”的無邊框屏幕和幾個關鍵功能的改進，以及引入新的語音助理挑戰(zhàn)蘋果(Apple)的Siri。
IHS Markit forecasts Samsung will ship 331m smartphones in 2017, almost 6.8 per cent higher than 2016. “Assuming the S8 has no significant hardware issues,” it says pointedly.
IHS Markit預測，2017年，三星智能手機的出貨量將達到3.31億部，幾乎比2016年高出6.8%。IHS Markit有針對性地指出：“假設S8沒有出現(xiàn)嚴重的硬件問題。”
“The success of the S8 is critical for Samsung to help get it out of that complete mess that it was in last year with the Note 7,” says Bryan Ma, an analyst at IDC.
IDC分析師馬伯遠(Bryan Ma)表示：“S8的成功對于幫助三星走出Note 7去年所帶來的一團糟狀況至關重要。”
“And the good thing is that they really did a good job with the S8. Barring any catastrophic battery issues happening again, this should help get Samsung back on its feet again this year.”
“好在他們在S8方面確實做的不錯。如果不再發(fā)生災難性的電池問題，它應會幫助三星在今年恢復元氣。”
The Note 7 trouble cost Samsung its global leadership of the smartphone market. The company accounted for 17.8 per cent of global smartphone sales in the last quarter of 2016, slightly less than Apple, according to Gartner.
三星Note 7危機讓該公司失去了智能手機市場的全球領軍地位：根據市場研究機構高德納(Gartner)的數(shù)據，2016年最后一個季度，三星占全球智能手機銷量的17.8%，略低于蘋果。
But the reputational damage is not seen to be permanent by analysts. Daniel Kim, an analyst at Macquarie, says the Note 7 safety issue should not discourage consumers from buying the new phones — but he also does not expect the S8 phones to outsell their predecessors. The premium smartphone market is crowded with similar products, and the replacement cycle is getting longer as customers no longer feel they have to upgrade as frequently.
但分析人士認為，聲譽損害不是永久性的。麥格理(Macquarie)分析師丹尼爾•金(Daniel Kim)表示，三星Note 7的安全問題應該不會阻止消費者購買新手機，但他不認為，S8的銷量將超過之前的機型。高端智能手機市場充斥著類似機型，手機更新周期正變長，因為消費者不再認為他們必須頻繁更換手機。
But smartphone sales are no longer the main metric that investors are following, analysts say, with more focus now on the company’s components-driven recovery. Memory chips and advanced flat panel displays boast wider margins on higher prices. Smartphones now account for just a quarter of Samsung’s earnings, down from about two-thirds in 2013.
但分析人士表示，智能手機銷售不再是投資者關注的主要指標，他們將更多的注意力放在三星由零配件驅動的復蘇方面。由于價格上漲，內存芯片和高端平板顯示器的利潤率上升。智能手機現(xiàn)在僅占三星利潤的四分之一，低于2013年的約三分之二。
Samsung shares hit record highs recently after analysts said that its first-quarter operating profit was expected to jump 30 per cent on robust sales of microchips and OLED panels.
三星股價最近創(chuàng)下紀錄高位，此前分析人士表示，在微芯片和OLED面板強勁銷售的幫助下，預計該公司今年第一季度營業(yè)利潤將大增30%。
Samsung’s share price closed up 0.5 per cent yesterday, gaining 16 per cent year to date.
三星股價周四收盤上漲0.5%，今年迄今已累計上漲16%。
“A new smartphone launch is not as strategically important as it used to be as smartphones are no longer Samsung’s main profit generator,” says Kim Young-woo, an analyst at SK Securities.
SK證券(SK Securities)分析師金永佑(Kim Young-woo)表示：“新款智能手機發(fā)布的戰(zhàn)略重要性不如以前，因為智能手機不再是三星的主要利潤創(chuàng)造者。”
“If the new phones sell well, it could be another catalyst, but not a critical determinant for its share prices.”
“如果新款手機暢銷，這可能是另外一個利好，但并非股價的關鍵決定因素。”
Concerns over the company’s longer-term growth remain. The S8 launch reminded investors of Samsung’s inherent weakness in software and services, according to analysts, even if the company finally joined the race to bring voice-controlled intelligence to smartphones in a new service called Bixby.
有關該公司長期增長的擔憂仍然存在。分析師表示，S8的推出讓投資者想起了三星在軟件和服務方面的固有弱點，即便三星最終加入了圍繞著語音控制智能的角逐：三星如今以一款名為Bixby的新服務，把語音控制智能帶入了智能手機。
More worrying for investors is the absence of the company’s de facto leader Lee Jae-yong as he stands trial on charges of bribery and embezzlement in connection with a political corruption scandal. Although the company’s daily operations would not be affected by the leadership vacuum, its strategic decision-making involving big acquisitions or corporate governance reforms could be undermined, analysts say.
投資者們更擔心的是，該公司實際領導者李在镕(Lee Jae-yong)，因與一宗政治腐敗丑聞有關的行賄和挪用公款指控受審而缺席公司管理。分析師表示，盡管三星的日常運營不受領導者缺席的影響，但涉及重大收購或公司治理改革的戰(zhàn)略決策可能會受到削弱。
But the company’s share price suggest that investors are happy for now to focus on the success in the components market above longer-term management concerns.
但該公司的股價表明，相比長期管理方面的擔憂，投資者眼下更樂于關注三星在配件市場的成功。
“It is not a politically right time to pursue any structural changes,” says Mr Kim at SK Securities, forecasting a Won50tn ($44bn) operating profit this year, compared with Won29tn last year.
“就政治環(huán)境而言，眼下不是追求結構性改革的好時機，”SK證券的金永佑表示，他預測今年的營業(yè)利潤為50萬億韓元(合440億美元)，而去年為29萬億韓元。
“Many investors have given up hopes for governance reform in the near future but there are still high expectations for bigger shareholder returns, because the company’s earnings are so good.”
“很多投資者對三星近期進行治理改革不抱希望，但對股東回報提高仍然抱有較高期望，因為該公司的盈利狀況非常好。”
And, as long as there is no repeat of the fire-starting Note 7, Samsung can expect a boost from the latest phone launch.
同時，只要不再出現(xiàn)Note 7爆炸那樣的事件，三星完全可以期望新推出的手機帶來業(yè)績提升。
“This device is the first real test that Samsung has had since the Note 7 disaster, which is why the S8 needs to sell very well, confounding the big fall in trust that Samsung has suffered over the last six months,” says Richard Windsor, an analyst at Edison, a research group.
“該設備是自從Note 7災難以來三星面臨的首次真正考驗，這正是S8必須賣得非常好的原因，三星必須用出色的銷售彌補三星在過去6個月遭受的信任流失，”研究公司Edison的分析師理查德•溫莎(Richard Windsor)表示。
“Samsung has produced the device that it needs to cement its recovery but now it comes down to consumers.”
溫莎說：“三星生產出了鞏固復蘇所需要的手機，但眼下這取決于消費者。”
