華爾街的賺錢經(jīng) 第10期:魚和熊掌兼顧的投資智慧(2)

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Deflation

通貨緊縮型投資

Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists. Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

通貨緊縮論者要構(gòu)建投資組合相對更為容易可將大部分錢購置長期美國國債，剩余的錢，一部分存現(xiàn)，一部分購入市政債券。

If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasury papers are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

如果大范圍通貨緊縮成為現(xiàn)實，長期國債便極有可能會升值。而與此同時，債券的固定收益同消費(fèi)價格下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)日益密切。

Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

如果你對經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期是通貨緊縮，那么就在你的投資組合中保留大量的現(xiàn)金吧。把現(xiàn)金存在銀行，在低利率、通貨緊縮的環(huán)境下產(chǎn)生不了大的收益，不過隨著物價的下跌，存在銀行里的現(xiàn)金實際上是升值的。

Insurance Component: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

保險無素：假使通脹不期而至，大宗商品期貨會有最大的收益，所以應(yīng)當(dāng)將其作為一項保險撞施。如果通脹爆發(fā)，可囚可樂公司、煙草巨頭奧馳亞集團(tuán)、牙膏生產(chǎn)商高露潔棕欖等企業(yè)便有了定價權(quán)。

Goldilocks Economy

金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)型

Maybe, just, maybe, world bankers will get this right. and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

可能，僅僅是可能一一全世界的銀行家都很了解這一點(diǎn)——經(jīng)濟(jì)既沒有嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹也沒有嚴(yán)重的通貨緊縮。

"We think most likely the central banks of the World will get this close enough to right we will settle in close to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%," says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

巴克萊全球投資策略主管亞倫·格威茨說，“我們認(rèn)為，各國央行最終極有可能將通脹率保持在相對溫和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之間。”

"In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario--where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold—risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis," says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投資組合經(jīng)理斯科特·沃勒說：“在‘金發(fā)女孩’經(jīng)濟(jì)時期一一經(jīng)濟(jì)既不過熱也不過冷，風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)會有最好的表現(xiàn)，股票和帶有股票性質(zhì)的債券應(yīng)當(dāng)是關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。”

For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and and agency debt.

債券部分可以選擇一支基金，比如富達(dá)債券總指數(shù)基金，該基金持有高等級中期企業(yè)債券、抵押貸款及政府和政府機(jī)構(gòu)債務(wù)。

Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong , you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers. Cash also is OK in either situation.

保險元素·假設(shè)關(guān)于金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期是錯誤的，那么你需要抵御通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的雙重鳳險。可以購入大宗商品交易所買賣基金來應(yīng)對通貨膨脹、長期國債來應(yīng)對通貨緊縮?，F(xiàn)金則是可以同時應(yīng)對兩種情況的法寶。