VOA慢速英語(yǔ): 老齡化將會(huì)降低未來(lái)數(shù)十年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度（雙語(yǔ)）

[ti:Aging Will Reduce Economic Growth Worldwide in Coming Decades] [ar:Mario Ritter] [al:Economics Report] [00:00.00]From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report. [00:04.94]The world is getting older. [00:07.84]As more people retire each year, [00:10.89]fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. [00:15.31]This has effects not only in the work place [00:19.30]but in the world finance. [00:22.03]The bond rating agency Moody's says [00:26.57]the aging population will lead to a drop [00:29.92]in household savings. [00:31.86]This could mean that total investments [00:35.04]will fall and economic growth could slow. [00:38.98]Some reports have described Japan, Italy and Germany [00:44.56]as the world's "Super Aged" nations. [00:48.15]That is the name for countries [00:50.84]in which at least 20 percent of the population [00:54.34]is at least 65 years old. [00:57.23]Elena Duggar is head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division. [01:02.41]She says changes in many populations [01:06.64]are taking place quickly. [01:08.58]"The demographic transition is upon us now [01:11.45]and its progressing, [01:12.85]by historical standards, quite rapidly," Duggar said. [01:15.69]In five years, [01:17.37]six more countries will join the list of "Super Aged" nations. [01:21.92]And 34 nations will be super aged by the year 2030. [01:28.14]Elena Duggar says this will have a big influence on labor and savings. [01:36.18]"That will translate into reductions in labor supply. [01:39.02]At the same time aging means that [01:43.04]the household savings rates will go down, [01:45.29]which will negatively impact on investment. [01:47.49]Both trends put together would mean that [01:50.84]aging will have a significant negative impact [01:53.47]on global growth," Duggar said. [01:54.51]The Conference Board reports [01:56.57]on business conditions around the world. [01:59.00]It says an aging population could reduce world economic growth [02:04.98]by one percent in the next ten years. [02:08.37]Kishore Kulkarni is with the Metropolitan State University of Denver. [02:14.80]He says immigration is one way [02:18.65]to reduce the effects of an aging population. [02:22.19]Older adults spend money differently than younger ones. [02:27.42]And experts say that difference affects the economies of countries. [02:33.18]But Kishore Kulkarni believes that specialized career training [02:39.36]and productivity gains from technology [02:42.79]could make up for the drop in the number of workers. [02:46.94]He says the problems of an aging population [02:51.12]represent only a mismatching [02:53.61]or misalignment of the demand for goods. [02:57.45]"It is a misalignment of demand [02:59.30]rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. [03:03.29]And it is a challenge which we can easily accept [03:07.30]and tackle as it comes to us," Kulkarni said. [03:09.79]He also says that an aging population [03:13.32]will be less of a problem in countries [03:16.56]where older people are highly valued. [03:19.60]And most experts agree that younger workers [03:24.13]will have to work longer [03:25.97]and retire later than today's older workers. [03:30.15]And that's the Economics Report from VOA Learning English. [03:36.74]For more Learning English programs, [03:40.27]I'm Mario Ritter.

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Aging Will Reduce Economic Growth Worldwide in Coming Decades

老齡化將會(huì)降低未來(lái)數(shù)十年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度

From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.

這里是美國(guó)之音慢速英語(yǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道。

The world is getting older. As more people retire each year, fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. This has effects not only in the work place but in the world finance. The bond rating agency Moody's says the aging population will lead to a drop in household savings. This could mean that total investments will fall and economic growth could slow.

世界在變老，隨著每年越來(lái)越多的人退休，越來(lái)越少的勞動(dòng)力可以去替代他們。這種影響不僅涉及到工作職場(chǎng)，還影響到世界金融。債券評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的穆迪稱，人口老齡化將會(huì)導(dǎo)致家庭儲(chǔ)蓄的減少。這就可能意味著投資總額將下降，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度可能會(huì)放緩。

Some reports have described Japan, Italy and Germany as the world's "Super Aged" nations. That is the name for countries in which at least 20 percent of the population is at least 65 years old.

一些報(bào)道稱，日本、意大利和德國(guó)是世界上“超高齡”的國(guó)家。“超高齡”國(guó)家是指那些國(guó)家中有20%的65歲以上人的國(guó)家。

Elena Duggar is head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division. She says changes in many populations are taking place quickly.

艾琳娜·達(dá)格爾是穆迪公司主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門的主管，她稱，許多人口正在發(fā)生迅速的變化。

"The demographic transition is upon us now and its progressing, by historical standards, quite rapidly," Duggar said.

達(dá)格爾說(shuō)：“現(xiàn)在人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型即將來(lái)臨，正在不斷發(fā)展中，從歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看，其進(jìn)程還相當(dāng)迅速。”

In five years, six more countries will join the list of "Super Aged" nations. And 34 nations will be super aged by the year 2030.

在未來(lái)5年內(nèi)，將有6個(gè)國(guó)家會(huì)加入“超高齡”國(guó)家的行列，而且到2030年，還會(huì)有34個(gè)國(guó)家會(huì)成為“超高齡”國(guó)家。

Elena Duggar says this will have a big influence on labor and savings.

艾琳娜·達(dá)格爾稱，這將會(huì)對(duì)勞動(dòng)力和儲(chǔ)蓄產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

"That will translate into reductions in labor supply. At the same time aging means that the household savings rates will go down, which will negatively impact on investment. Both trends put together would mean that aging will have a significant negative impact on global growth," Duggar said.

達(dá)格爾說(shuō)：“這會(huì)使得勞動(dòng)力供給量的減少。與此同時(shí)，老齡化意味著家庭儲(chǔ)蓄利率將會(huì)降低，這還將會(huì)對(duì)投資產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。這兩種趨勢(shì)合起來(lái)就意味著老齡化將會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生重大的負(fù)面影響。”

The Conference Board reports on business conditions around the world. It says an aging population could reduce world economic growth by one percent in the next ten years.

世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)對(duì)全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行報(bào)道稱，在未來(lái)10年，人口老齡化可能會(huì)使得世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度減緩1%。

Kishore Kulkarni is with the Metropolitan State University of Denver. He says immigration is one way to reduce the effects of an aging population. Older adults spend money differently than younger ones. And experts say that difference affects the economies of countries.

基肖爾·庫(kù)爾卡尼在丹佛大都會(huì)州立大學(xué)任職，他稱，移民是減少人口老齡化影響的一種方法。老年人花錢不同于年輕人，專家們稱，這種差異會(huì)影響到國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)。

But Kishore Kulkarni believes that specialized career training and productivity gains from technology could make up for the drop in the number of workers. He says the problems of an aging population represent only a mismatching or misalignment of the demand for goods.

但是基肖爾·庫(kù)爾卡尼認(rèn)為，專業(yè)職業(yè)培訓(xùn)和由技術(shù)所帶動(dòng)的生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)可以彌補(bǔ)工人數(shù)量下降所帶來(lái)的影響。他稱，人口老齡化的問(wèn)題只是對(duì)商品需求的錯(cuò)位。

"It is a misalignment of demand rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. And it is a challenge which we can easily accept and tackle as it comes to us," Kulkarni said.

庫(kù)爾卡尼說(shuō)：“它是需求的一種錯(cuò)位，而不是需求的徹底變化和急劇變化。當(dāng)它到來(lái)時(shí)，我們可以輕松接受并解決這一挑戰(zhàn)。”

He also says that an aging population will be less of a problem in countries where older people are highly valued. And most experts agree that younger workers will have to work longer and retire later than today's older workers.

他還稱，人口老齡化對(duì)于那些對(duì)老年人高度重視的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，并不會(huì)構(gòu)成什么大問(wèn)題。而且大多數(shù)專家一致認(rèn)為，年輕的工人將會(huì)不得不工作更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，甚至?xí)七t退休年齡。

And that's the Economics Report from VOA Learning English. I'm Mario Ritter.

這就是本期的美國(guó)之音慢速英語(yǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道的全部?jī)?nèi)容，我是馬里奧·里特。

[page]聽(tīng)力原文[/page]

Aging Will Reduce Economic Growth Worldwide in Coming Decades

From VOA Learning English, this is the Economics Report.

The world is getting older. As more people retire each year, fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. This has effects not only in the work place but in the world finance. The bond rating agency Moody's says the aging population will lead to a drop in household savings. This could mean that total investments will fall and economic growth could slow.

Some reports have described Japan, Italy and Germany as the world's "Super Aged" nations. That is the name for countries in which at least 20 percent of the population is at least 65 years old.

Elena Duggar is head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division. She says changes in many populations are taking place quickly.

"The demographic transition is upon us now and its progressing, by historical standards, quite rapidly," Duggar said.

In five years, six more countries will join the list of "Super Aged" nations. And 34 nations will be super aged by the year 2030.

Elena Duggar says this will have a big influence on labor and savings.

"That will translate into reductions in labor supply. At the same time aging means that the household savings rates will go down, which will negatively impact on investment. Both trends put together would mean that aging will have a significant negative impact on global growth," Duggar said.

The Conference Board reports on business conditions around the world. It says an aging population could reduce world economic growth by one percent in the next ten years.

Kishore Kulkarni is with the Metropolitan State University of Denver. He says immigration is one way to reduce the effects of an aging population. Older adults spend money differently than younger ones. And experts say that difference affects the economies of countries.

But Kishore Kulkarni believes that specialized career training and productivity gains from technology could make up for the drop in the number of workers. He says the problems of an aging population represent only a mismatching or misalignment of the demand for goods.

"It is a misalignment of demand rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. And it is a challenge which we can easily accept and tackle as it comes to us," Kulkarni said.

He also says that an aging population will be less of a problem in countries where older people are highly valued. And most experts agree that younger workers will have to work longer and retire later than today's older workers.

And that's the Economics Report from VOA Learning English. I'm Mario Ritter.