VOA慢速英語:Meteorologists Use Supercomputers To Help Predict The Weather

From VOA Learning English, this is the Technology Report.

這里是美國之音慢速英語科技報道。

Many Americans start to closely follow weather reports in the early fall. During the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting the strength and movement of these huge storm systems is of crucial importance. Thanks to new supercomputers, meteorologists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are getting better at predicting the weather as far as six days out.

許多美國人開始密切關(guān)注初秋的天氣預報。在大西洋颶風季節(jié)期間，預測這些巨大風暴系統(tǒng)的強度和移動是至關(guān)重要的。多虧了新的超級計算機，美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(簡稱NOAA)的氣象學家們在預測近六天的天氣上做得越來越好。

Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast last October, and caused deaths and widespread damage. It was one of the costliest storm in U.S. history. At the time, some people blamed meteorologists for not correctly predicting the path of the storm.

去年十月桑迪颶風襲擊了美國東海岸，造成民眾遇難和大面積破壞。該颶風是美國歷史上損失最慘重的風暴之一。當時一些人指責氣象學家們沒有正確預測風暴的路徑。

But weather forecasting is extremely difficult, says Ben Kyger. He is the Director of Central Operations at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in College Park, Maryland.

但本·古格(Ben Kyger)表示，天氣預報是非常困難的。他是美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)旗下國家環(huán)境預報中心(NCEP)業(yè)務運行中心的主任。

"You’ve got major patterns in the atmosphere, like the jet stream, but you’ve also got little eddies, little currents, little things happening all over the place. All these little changes are interacting with each other, continuously, all day long. So if you look at it from above, from a satellite, you see the atmosphere moving and churning in big ways and little ways."

他說，“我們了解了大氣的主要模式，像高速氣流。但我們也知道大氣中到處會產(chǎn)生小渦流、小氣流等等。這些細微變化整天不斷地互相作用。所以從衛(wèi)星上看，就能看到大氣在大范圍和小范圍內(nèi)移動和翻騰。”

Ben Kyger says oceans are another issue because they closely interact with the atmosphere and have a huge effect on storms. NOAA has spent about $20 million on two new supercomputers, in an effort to improve the dependability of the forecasts.

古格表示，海洋是另一個因素，因為它和大氣密切地相互作用，對風暴有巨大影響。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局已經(jīng)在兩臺新超級計算機上投入約2千萬美元，就是為了提高預報的可靠性。

"These computers generate the initial model guidance that the whole forecast process depends on, for all the weather information that you see, with snowstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, how hot it’s going to be today — all of your weather forecasts start with what comes off of these supercomputers."

古格說，“這些計算機會生成整個預報過程要依賴的初始指導模型。你看到的所有氣象信息，暴風雪、龍卷風、颶風，以及當天的氣溫，所有這些天氣預報都源于這些超級計算機。”

It takes a huge amount of computational power to examine data from weather satellites, ground stations and other sources. It then take a lot of power to predict temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind speed.

分析來自氣象衛(wèi)星、地面站和其它渠道的數(shù)據(jù)需要耗費巨大的計算能力，隨后還需要耗費巨大的計算能力來預測溫度、氣壓、濕度和風速。

But human brains and experience are still very important to the process. Meteorologists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction scan the same data that the supercomputers get before issuing a weather report.

但人類的大腦和經(jīng)驗對這一過程仍然非常重要。國家環(huán)境預測中心的氣象學家在發(fā)布天氣預報前，會察看超級計算機獲得的同樣的數(shù)據(jù)。

"They are looking at lots of different models run of different computers, and then they are creating that five-day forecast. They use lots of scientific and subjective knowledge from doing it year after year. They know where the models are strong, where they’re weak and they give us significantly better forecasts than the models would do by themselves."

古格說，“他們會查看很多由不同計算機運行的不同氣象模型，然后做出5天的天氣預報。他們會運用大量年復一年積累的科學和主觀知識，也知道氣象模型的優(yōu)點和缺點，所以他們會給我們做出明顯比計算機本身能做出的更好的預測。”

NOAA issues worldwide forecasts every six hours every day of the year. The reports are free and are helpful for many countries that cannot afford their own weather service. NOAA continues working to improve its weather-forecasting abilities, another upgrade of its weather-predicting supercomputers is planed for as earlier as 2015.

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局每天每6個小時發(fā)布全球天氣預報。這些預報是免費的，這對很多自身無法負擔氣象服務的國家來說很有幫助。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局將繼續(xù)提高其天氣預測能力，其天氣預測超級計算機預定將于2015年再次升級。