實時手機數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤，遏制重大疾病突發(fā)

In a new study out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, health researchers make the case for using real-time cell-phone data to track and mitigate major disease outbreaks.

在麻省理工學(xué)院進行的一項新研究中，健康研究員提出使用實時手機數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤和遏制重大疾病突發(fā)。

Unfortunately, several barriers—including privacy concerns and a lack of data legislation—are likely to stop this kind of information from ever getting to researchers.

不幸的是，研究人員在獲取這些數(shù)據(jù)時遇到了一些障礙，如對隱私的擔(dān)憂、缺乏與數(shù)據(jù)相關(guān)的法律。

Earlier this year, researchers at MIT set out to see if they could reasonably predict how a disease might move through a city by looking at commute routes.

今年早些時候，麻省理工學(xué)院的研究人員準(zhǔn)備要看看他們是否能通過觀察通勤路線來對疾病在城市中的傳播方式做出合理預(yù)測。

Through a deal with Singapore telecom Singtel, MIT researchers were able to get access to four months’ worth of anonymized cell-phone location data from 2011.

通過與新加坡電信公司合作，麻省理工學(xué)院的研究人員成功獲取了2011年起 4個月的匿名手機定位數(shù)據(jù)。

The disease they were tracking was a 2013 outbreak of dengue fever, a virus transmitted via mosquito that manifests in headaches, muscle pain, and vomiting.

他們要追蹤的是2013年爆發(fā)的登革熱，這是一種通過蚊子傳播的病毒，癥狀表現(xiàn)為頭痛、肌肉疼痛和嘔吐。

The researchers hypothesized that the disease traveled around the city along the same routes as people’s phones did.

研究人員猜測這種疾病在城市的傳播路徑和人們手機的移動路徑是一致的。

When they tested their predictions against census data for 2013 and 2014, which recorded the number of cases over the course of two years, they found the models were accurately estimating the growth trajectory the disease.

他們將自己的預(yù)測與2013年和2014年的人口普查數(shù)據(jù)進行了對比，該數(shù)據(jù)記錄了兩年間的病例數(shù)量，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)模型準(zhǔn)確估計了疾病的發(fā)展軌跡。

The study is remarkable for its ability to examine the pattern of dengue’s spread as it moves inside smaller regions like cities and towns. Typically, researchers study disease at a much broader level—think states and countries. But smartphone data allows researchers and scientists to see more detailed information about the way people interact with their environment and each other.

該研究值得注意的一點是能研究登革熱在城市和城鎮(zhèn)等小范圍內(nèi)的傳播模式。通常，研究人員會在更廣泛的層面上研究疾病——如州和國家的范圍。但智能手機數(shù)據(jù)使研究人員和科學(xué)家能看到人們?nèi)绾谓佑|環(huán)境以及他人的更詳細信息。

“This data can be really useful in an emerging situation,” says Emanuele Massaro, a scientist at École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland and the lead author on the paper. He argues that “scientists, NGOs, and political decision makers” should have access to cell-phone data more broadly, so they can more easily contain disease outbreaks.

瑞士洛桑聯(lián)邦理工大學(xué)的研究員Emanuele Massaro是這篇論文的第一作者，他說：“這一數(shù)據(jù)在緊急情況下真的很有用。”他認(rèn)為“科學(xué)家、非政府組織和政治決策者們”應(yīng)該更廣泛地獲取手機數(shù)據(jù)，以便他們能更容易地遏制疾病爆發(fā)。